Kentucky Derby thread

#53
#53
I've been watching some replays on the Kentucky Derby site (its free) and I'm leaning right now to Colonel John.

I watched Big Brown's race at Gulfstream and that was flat out impressive, especially showing tactical speed from the 12 hole. But Colonel John came powering home to win the Santa Anita stakes on that poly crap and, while it sometimes favors closers, California tracks are traditionally speed-biased, and so closing like he did there is pretty impressive to me.

I note also that he had a bullet work at 5 furlongs Friday, suggesting to me both that he has no problems with running on dirt and also that they are planning on urging him a bit out of the gate. While I don't see him on the lead, I think he'll try to settle in somewhere within 6 or 7 lengths at the half mile post.

Morning line forecast for him is 6 - 1. I will probably wheel him first and second in the exacts with everyone once, then go with multiples exactas with any live longshots (there's always a few) then play him first and second with Big Brown and the bombs in third. If he and Big Brown run first and second, you will need a price horse third to make anything out of it.
 
#54
#54
Watch out for a horse named Z Fortune. If he gets a good draw he could be in the mix and should give you the $ you need for your exacta. I think I'll play him some.
 
#55
#55
Hope its not too hot for you guys that are going. I can't think of too many worse things than being dressed nice while covered in sweat.
 
#56
#56
The Dude said:
Hope its not too hot for you guys that are going. I can't think of too many worse things than being dressed nice while covered in sweat.
Click to expand...

That's pretty much a tradition at the derby, and the reason why the ice is added to the whiskey and mint.
 
#57
#57
lawgator1 said:
I've been watching some replays on the Kentucky Derby site (its free) and I'm leaning right now to Colonel John.

I watched Big Brown's race at Gulfstream and that was flat out impressive, especially showing tactical speed from the 12 hole. But Colonel John came powering home to win the Santa Anita stakes on that poly crap and, while it sometimes favors closers, California tracks are traditionally speed-biased, and so closing like he did there is pretty impressive to me.
Click to expand...

I like the thinking, Colonel John closed well at the Santa Anita Derby, but i get slightly unnerved with a closer at the Derby, where there is a good chance he'll get caught in traffic by the largest field he's ever ran against, by not pressing the pace, a bad post draw might get him bound up in the back.

Going with a puncher's chance, I'll make some plays around Gayego. His first dirt start was at Oaklawn, and he held the pace and prevailed, taking the lead at the 3/4 and bringing it home, though not convincingly.

However, his best chance is for one of the also rans to set the pace, wearing Big Brown down, while spreading the field.

I'm going to consider Big Brown's 3 blowout wins in 3 Starts a show both of his ability, and that of his competition. That, and an exacta on a (i'll throw a number) 2-5 post time horse is not worth wasting money on. If i had to bet now, I'd take Gayego based on the money and the fact that he won the Arky Derby on his first dirt start.
 
#58
#58
JTrainDavis said:
I like the thinking, Colonel John closed well at the Santa Anita Derby, but i get slightly unnerved with a closer at the Derby, where there is a good chance he'll get caught in traffic by the largest field he's ever ran against, by not pressing the pace, a bad post draw might get him bound up in the back.

Going with a puncher's chance, I'll make some plays around Gayego. His first dirt start was at Oaklawn, and he held the pace and prevailed, taking the lead at the 3/4 and bringing it home, though not convincingly.

However, his best chance is for one of the also rans to set the pace, wearing Big Brown down, while spreading the field.

I'm going to consider Big Brown's 3 blowout wins in 3 Starts a show both of his ability, and that of his competition. That, and an exacta on a (i'll throw a number) 2-5 post time horse is not worth wasting money on. If i had to bet now, I'd take Gayego based on the money and the fact that he won the Arky Derby on his first dirt start.
Click to expand...

Even though he is in the 20 spot I still like Big Brown. Gayego will get none of my $. I just don't think he can outrun his predigree. My favorite Exacta will be to Box Big Brown and Z Fortune who is in the 6 spot.

I'm looking at a cople to stick in as my Tri as well but I'm not sold yet.
 
#59
#59
VolBeef88 said:
Even though he is in the 20 spot I still like Big Brown. Gayego will get none of my $. I just don't think he can outrun his predigree. My favorite Exacta will be to Box Big Brown and Z Fortune who is in the 6 spot.

I'm looking at a cople to stick in as my Tri as well but I'm not sold yet.
Click to expand...

The Derby probably won't see a nickel from me, though it should be a fun one to watch. Lots of frontrunners starting on the outside, i'm looking forward to it.
 
#60
#60
Poking around today, i have a feeling for Cool Coal Man as well, if he can stay out of traffic pinching him to the rail, starting in the 1 spot. I'm going to go in thinking the Polytrack experience was an aberration, a $10 winner might pay pretty well.

But, with all the speed starting on the outside, it's anyones race, should be a good Derby. I just hope everyone stays upright.
 
#61
#61
JTrainDavis said:
Poking around today, i have a feeling for Cool Coal Man as well, if he can stay out of traffic pinching him to the rail, starting in the 1 spot. I'm going to go in thinking the Polytrack experience was an aberration, a $10 winner might pay pretty well.

But, with all the speed starting on the outside, it's anyones race, should be a good Derby. I just hope everyone stays upright.
Click to expand...


And this is why I like the closers...

If the speed is to the outside in the 18, 19, and 20 posts, they have no choice but to gun it from the gate so as not to get caught 4 and 5 wide into the first turn. The pace for the first quarter and for the half are going to be quite lickety-split, I believe.
 
#63
#63
lawgator1 said:
And this is why I like the closers...

If the speed is to the outside in the 18, 19, and 20 posts, they have no choice but to gun it from the gate so as not to get caught 4 and 5 wide into the first turn. The pace for the first quarter and for the half are going to be quite lickety-split, I believe.
Click to expand...

Thats why i like CCM, if he can keep clear on the rail. Your buddy Colonel John is going to be the guy to beat, if he can stay clear of traffic. I think CCM starting 1 might be able to edge ahead of the field as it collapses to the rail.

I think Zito will want Julien Leparoux to flog him like a bastard out of the gate for the first 1/4, make the turns within a few lengths of the gunners from the outside, and take advantage of their hot pace down the stretch. That said, if Colonel John can keep out of traffic, it's a moot point.
 
#64
#64
My picks with some help:)
TRI BOX
pyro
cowboy c
visionary

TRI BOX
1.Visionary
2. Co john
3. pyro

To win
Cowboy cal
Visionary
I will add some more most likley.
 
#67
#67
i've never gotten into the horse racing thing. all the hype for a 2 or 3 minute race just doesn't do it for me. but then again i don't bet on these things either.:)
 
#73
#73
I told FV I don't bet the horse races, but for fun I placed two small bets.

Visionaire

and

Monba
 
#75
#75
As much as i wasn't planning on throwing money down, i threw 30 to win and place on CCM, 50 to show.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top