Knecht a lottery pick?

#27
#27
pimo1 said:
Age is the biggest thing against him. The NBA is ridiculously focused on age. Lottery picks, much less first-rounders, are more often Freshmen and Sophomores than Juniors and Seniors. Knecht is a 5th-year SR. The main reason he likely came to UT was the fact he projects as a 3 and D guy without the D. Can he show enough effort on defense this year to convince some folks? The NBA is all about the upside. Knecht is pretty much a developed guy in their eyes.

In the mock that has him 6th... he is the only Sr in the lottery. And one of 4 in the whole first round. of 13 lottery picks 7 are freshmen and 2 international 9/13. I find it hilarious one of the comps they have for him is Max Strus.. an undrafted roleplayer for Cleveland. I think the Brent Barry, KCP comps are more in point.

Lastly, any mock that has Zach Edey outside of the first round is smoking crack. Yes, the fact he is not a shooter is a big deal in the modern NBA. However, he is 7'4" 300 lbs. Some team will fall in love with him and draft Vanilla Shaq.
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Vanilla Shaq lmao... he'll be lucky to be a great-value Boban Marjanovic. Except Boban is very likeable and Edey isn't.
 
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#29
#29
I'm not an NBA follower so maybe someone can answer this question. Why do they draft 19 year old development guys like Keon that will hit free agency by the time they develop if they do at all? Wouldn't an older guy like Knecht make more sense?
 
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#30
#30
ColinS said:
I'm not an NBA follower so maybe someone can answer this question. Why do they draft 19 year old development guys like Keon that will hit free agency by the time they develop if they do at all? Wouldn't an older guy like Knecht make more sense?
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Teams have Bird rights on players they draft when they hit free agency. So long as they signed them originally to a 3 year deal minimum. So the risk of losing a player you drafted and want to keep after their rookie deal expires is very, very low. Basically only happens if you can’t afford them.
 
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#31
#31
ColinS said:
I'm not an NBA follower so maybe someone can answer this question. Why do they draft 19 year old development guys like Keon that will hit free agency by the time they develop if they do at all? Wouldn't an older guy like Knecht make more sense?
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Nobody has ever foregone their first post-rookie max contract. The team who drafted you can pay you more than anybody else can, and can give you an extension and fully guaranteed ~$180m something like 18 months before you hit free agency. Nobody passes on this. What they do is get a few years into that second contract and ask for a trade, which allows the team to recoup tons of trade equity. This is exactly what the Jazz did with Donovan Mitchell. They got an all-star, two starter quality players, and 3 1st rd picks out of him.
 
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#32
#32
The only red flags for DK are his age and his lack of defense, which is improving but still not near a level NBA teams look for in a 3&D guy, which is his projection.

I think he could be more than that, but lottery picks are generally made for potential ceiling, and almost always for 18 and 19 year Olds. 'Finished products' like DK who have a predetermined ceiling of sorts and can step right in and contribute are generally taken from 12-20.

Depends on where he lands, but he should have a long pro career. Hope like hell he falls to wherever the Sixers pick.
 
#33
#33
Just for reference, here's the highest drafted seniors of the past 10 years (could be missing a few):

2023: Jamie Jaquez, #18

2022: Agbaji, #14

2021: Duarte, #13

2020: Pritchard, #26

2019: Cam Johnson, #11

2018: Grayson Allen, #21

2017: Derrick White, #29

2016: Buddy Hield, #6

2015: Kaminsky, #9

2014: McDermott, #11

2013: McCollum, #10

2012: Tyler Zeller, #17
 
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#34
#34
Stoked said:
Vanilla Shaq lmao... he'll be lucky to be a great-value Boban Marjanovic. Except Boban is very likeable and Edey isn't.
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Yes, Vanilla Shaq is a huge stretch but it had its intended effect of causing laughter. But Boban is a bit on the mean side...I do have to admit if you look at their measurables they are like twins but...they play very different games. Boban was always strictly a rebounder nothing else. Edey is more along the lines of a bigger Andre Drummond or a smaller Yao Ming. He is a career 70% free-throw shooter which is amazing for that size. He can develop a decent midrange jumper and give some team 20 minutes a game of inside dominance. Toronto has 3 first-round picks and he is from there.. its entirely possible they end up teammates lol.
 
#36
#36
omghulkhands said:
Just for reference, here's the highest drafted seniors of the past 10 years (could be missing a few):

2021: Duarte, #13

2020: Pritchard, #26

2019: Cam Johnson, #11

2018: Grayson Allen, #21

2017: Derrick White, #29

2016: Buddy Hield, #6

2015: Kaminsky, #9

2014: McDermott, #11

2013: McCollum, #10

2012: Tyler Zeller, #17
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I think we're going to see a little more of this going forward. I think the way NBA teams view upper-classmen is shifting a little bit. If you're rebuilding and have a top pick, then it's highly likely you're still going to take the young project with tons of potential upside, but the teams in the middle of the 1st rd are going to be taking older players more. They're realizing that with the emergence of guys like Jaime Jacquez Jr and Austin Reaves, you can get somebody who is ready to contribute to winning right now, and you can lock him down for cheap for 4 years if you get him with a 1st. When you don't have cap space and you already have your core guys, this is an enticing option.

And the thing about these guys (JJJ, Reaves, Knecht, Derrick White, etc.) is that they got to be the man for several years in college. Even a guy like Cam Johnson who wasn't the man had basically fully developed himself as the perfect role player, and played well right away in the NBA.

If you're a raw 19-YO rookie, you need those reps, either in the G league or on a bad NBA team. Guys like Jonathan Kuminga are on teams that are too good to give him the reps he needs to develop and he's languished. This is another emerging reason it's less attractive for good teams to take raw prospects.

Knecht already has an NBA body and has had his reps being the guy creating shots at the end of games and in pressure situations. If you're the Magic drafting at 16 next year and you can grab Knecht or a project, you should probably take Knecht. The Magic need shooting, and they're ready to be good and already have their 2 young stars.
 
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#37
#37
Cosmo Kramer said:
His age will probably prevent him from being a Lottery pick
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Just depends on if he keeps playing to the level he has all conference play. If he continues to average 20 PPG with the skill set he has flashed, he’s not making it out of the lottery in this weak draft. Just my opinion obviously. I think the age thing is overblown right now.
 
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#38
#38
TheMookieMonster said:
Just depends on if he keeps playing to the level he has all conference play. If he continues to average 20 PPG with the skill set he has flashed, he’s not making it out of the lottery in this weak draft. Just my opinion obviously. I think the age thing is overblown right now.
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A couple of the lottery teams are another player away from being playoff caliber. Knecht will be able to score at the next level
 
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#40
#40
Why would anyone want Knecht to get drafted by a perennial losing team in NBA. Best situation for him is 15- 20 range and automatically be a member of a playoff team.

Losing sucks ask the Pistons..and Wizards.
 
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#41
#41
knoxvol52 said:
Why would anyone want Knecht to get drafted by a perennial losing team in NBA. Best situation for him is 15- 20 range and automatically be a member of a playoff team.

Losing sucks ask the Pistons..and Wizards.
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Because he’ll make more money if he is drafted higher and it is a better look for Tennessee the higher he is drafted. Pretty simple.

I don’t see many people hoping Nico one day goes #32 overall to the future defending Super Bowl champions. You want your players to be drafted as highly as possible.
 
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#42
#42
TheMookieMonster said:
Because he’ll make more money if he is drafted higher and it is a better look for Tennessee the higher he is drafted. Pretty simple.

I don’t see many people hoping Nico one day goes #32 overall to the future defending Super Bowl champions. You want your players to be drafted as highly as possible.
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Money isn't everything in Life. Plus his second and third contracts is the big money..
Also a Quarterback is a franchise changing position in a couple of years.

Winning is just as important to individuals as money.

Oh my team won 15 out of 82 games but it's okay I make X amount of dollars.
 
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#43
#43
knoxvol52 said:
Money isn't everything in Life. Plus his second and third contracts is the big money..
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It’s not everything in life, but it’s important, and if you are drafted by a worse team you also will have a quicker path to playing, which is what people getting drafted want as well. If Knecht gets drafted in the late first round, he’s either headed to the G League or playing extremely limited minutes.

I don’t know why we’d want him to get drafted lower. I just don’t see the value.
 
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#44
#44
TheMookieMonster said:
It’s not everything in life, but it’s important, and if you are drafted by a worse team you also will have a quicker path to playing, which is what people getting drafted want as well. If Knecht gets drafted in the late first round, he’s either headed to the G League or playing extremely limited minutes.

I don’t know why we’d want him to get drafted lower. I just don’t see the value.
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I will concede here. Though I believe winning is just as important to me.
If he goes top 5 I will be happy for Knecht but if he for some weird reason dropped to mid 1st round.
And plays for a playoff team I will be just as happy for him.

BTW The UCLA player from last season drafted by Heat in mid 1st round gets adequate playing time..

Late first rounders go to G- League not mid 1st rounders..
 
#46
#46
knoxvol52 said:
I will concede here. Though I believe winning is just as important to me.
If he goes top 5 I will be happy for Knecht but if he for some weird reason dropped to mid 1st round.
And plays for a playoff team I will be just as happy for him.

BTW The UCLA player from last season drafted by Heat in mid 1st round gets adequate playing time..

Late first rounders go to G- League not mid 1st rounders..
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You'd be surprised. It's not uncommon for top 10 picks to play in the G league. Scoot Henderson was #3 this year and appeared in some G League games while he was ramping up
 
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#48
#48
All I want is for Knecht to play for a good NBA team and make his money.

Is that asking too much?
 
#50
#50
walkenvol said:
All I want for DK is to lead us to a final four! Where ever he gets drafted in the first round will make him a 24 year old millionaire.
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The conversation was about his future.

But yes leading Tennessee to FF would be a great start..
 
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