Knecht a lottery pick?

#76
#76
Vecenie is the most informed and thoughtful analyst who covers the draft. Knecht has gone from undrafted to 26, to 16– all before SEC play began. I’ll be interested to see his final projections post-season. Interesting to note that a third of the top thirty players projected are pros, and three of the top fifteen are from Kentucky.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ttucke11
#77
#77
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Vecenie is the most informed and thoughtful analyst who covers the draft. Knecht has gone from undrafted to 26, to 16– all before SEC play began. I’ll be interested to see his final projections post-season. Interesting to note that a third of the top thirty players projected are pros, and three of the top fifteen are from Kentucky.
Click to expand...
What do you mean “are pros”?
 
#78
#78
walkenvol said:
What do you mean “are pros”?
Click to expand...

I think he means G-League or foreign players. But to SF’s point, I’ve seen some drafts have Reed Sheppard as high as #2 overall. I think Sheppard is great, but if there is actual truth in him being thought of that highly then no one can convince me that Knecht can’t go Top 5-10.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo and walkenvol
#79
#79
TheMookieMonster said:
I think he means G-League or foreign players. But to SF’s point, I’ve seen some drafts have Reed Sheppard as high as #2 overall. I think Sheppard is great, but if there is actual truth in him being thought of that highly then no one can convince me that Knecht can’t go Top 5-10.
Click to expand...
Correct. A third of the top thirty Ignite/NBL and foreign including two of the top five. It’s a weak draft. I don’t see one player in this year’s draft who would be considered tier one by a typical draft analyst. The top fifteen picks will be need based. Since Knecht is plug and play, I think his range is broad, but could go as high as top ten.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo and walkenvol
#80
#80
Rockytop10nessee said:
he does run and he’s great for floor spacing.. not sure how you could say otherwise if you’ve watched even 5 minutes of play this year.
Click to expand...

You talking about Knecht or Edey? If those knocks don't exist then why isn't he gonna be the #1 pick? Why is he still in college?
 
#81
#81
I think he'll probably go around 15. I think his game is well suited to the NBA. There's been some debate about shot creation, but he has shown us he can score on his own. The times he struggles driving or at the rim is when multiple defenders are sagging or coming at him. Spacing is better in the NBA since nearly everyone can shoot. He's never going to be #1 option offensively, so I see him getting alot of single defender attention and off ball open shots -- both of which he excels at.

His defense is already better than, say, Duncan Robinson and he has shown he is willing to spend energy defending. The athleticism is there.

To break away from the White player comparison trope, I think Knecht can be a player similar to Khris Middleton (Bucks) offensively.
 
#82
#82
Lukusw said:
I think he'll probably go around 15. I think his game is well suited to the NBA. There's been some debate about shot creation, but he has shown us he can score on his own. The times he struggles driving or at the rim is when multiple defenders are sagging or coming at him. Spacing is better in the NBA since nearly everyone can shoot. He's never going to be #1 option offensively, so I see him getting alot of single defender attention and off ball open shots -- both of which he excels at.

His defense is already better than, say, Duncan Robinson and he has shown he is willing to spend energy defending. The athleticism is there.

To break away from the White player comparison trope, I think Knecht can be a player similar to Khris Middleton (Bucks) offensively.
Click to expand...
Trope?
 
#83
#83
pimo1 said:
What is he great at? Off-ball scoring is the strength of his game. I did misstate the 'great at nothing' flat out because he is great at that. But that's not that rare a talent in the NBA there are tons of guys like that.
Click to expand...

I 100% disagree. There really aren't that many guys averaging 15+ ppg largely off-ball. There are plenty of guys who can camp and shoot a 3. A big wing with a good release who actually works hard off ball, and is crafty about when/where to cut, when to screen, when to slip, when to ghost screen, etc. That's not that common. The number of guys who can do that and play solid D is pretty rare.

There's a definite lane where Knecht has tons of value to teams as an off-ball specialist. He just needs to prove the adequate D part.

What Steph Curry does is spectacular and what Klay Thompson does is fairly mundane but we have way more dudes doing a Steph impersonation than a Klay impersonation.
 
Last edited:
#86
#86
TheMookieMonster said:
I think he means G-League or foreign players. But to SF’s point, I’ve seen some drafts have Reed Sheppard as high as #2 overall. I think Sheppard is great, but if there is actual truth in him being thought of that highly then no one can convince me that Knecht can’t go Top 5-10.
Click to expand...
I think you guys are mixing up Ignite players with actual G-league. They are not at all the same thing. G-league players already have or had their shot at the draft. Ignite is a program for high school players who take the opportunity to play against g-league teams for a year to bypass college. There are some G League vets on the ignite team but those guys are not draft eligible they are there as mentors. Ignite will always have multiple lottery picks just like they did last year. The majority of the lottery is gonna be from intl, NBL, Ignite and OTE going forwards.

How old is Sheppard again? Not sure how many times it has to be said but 100 times out of 100 if one kid is 19 and one is 23 unless the 23 year old is light years better with a flawless game the 19 year old will get drafted first. Is Knecht better than Sheppard? Probably, but an argument can be made and one is 3-4 years younger.

This is not opinion its provable fact. Pick any modern draft. Its been true for decades and is actually just getting more so. The best players are 1 and dones. It is pretty rare for 4 year players in college to develop into super stars these days. They are the exception not the rule.
 
#87
#87
pimo1 said:
I think you guys are mixing up Ignite players with actual G-league. They are not at all the same thing. G-league players already have or had their shot at the draft. Ignite is a program for high school players who take the opportunity to play against g-league teams for a year to bypass college. There are some G League vets on the ignite team but those guys are not draft eligible they are there as mentors. Ignite will always have multiple lottery picks just like they did last year. The majority of the lottery is gonna be from intl, NBL, Ignite and OTE going forwards.

How old is Sheppard again? Not sure how many times it has to be said but 100 times out of 100 if one kid is 19 and one is 23 unless the 23 year old is light years better with a flawless game the 19 year old will get drafted first. Is Knecht better than Sheppard? Probably, but an argument can be made and one is 3-4 years younger.

This is not opinion its provable fact. Pick any modern draft. Its been true for decades and is actually just getting more so. The best players are 1 and dones. It is pretty rare for 4 year players in college to develop into super stars these days. They are the exception not the rule.
Click to expand...
No one is claiming age isn’t a factor. It’s just not the only factor related to Knecht. The best analysts have had him moving up in the draft through the season. He’ll be drafted on fit like much of this mediocre class.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo and TheMookieMonster
#88
#88
Stoerner Fumbles said:
No one is claiming age isn’t a factor. It’s just not the only factor related to Knecht. The best analysts have had him moving up in the draft through the season. He’ll be drafted on fit like much of this mediocre class.
Click to expand...

Exactly. This isn’t binary. You can’t compare him to all other 23 year old prospects, because let’s face it he’s not like all other 23 year old prospects. He’s much, much better. And in a draft class with no true can’t miss prospects, all it takes is one team in the lottery to fall in love with him to draft him.

I think pimo isn’t giving Knecht enough credit for the type of player he has become.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo and knoxvol52
#89
#89
TheMookieMonster said:
Exactly. This isn’t binary. You can’t compare him to all other 23 year old prospects, because let’s face it he’s not like all other 23 year old prospects. He’s much, much better. And in a draft class with no true can’t miss prospects, all it takes is one team in the lottery to fall in love with him to draft him.

I think pimo isn’t giving Knecht enough credit for the type of player he has become.
Click to expand...
Combine will be important also.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo
#91
#91
pimo1 said:
I think you guys are mixing up Ignite players with actual G-league. They are not at all the same thing. G-league players already have or had their shot at the draft. Ignite is a program for high school players who take the opportunity to play against g-league teams for a year to bypass college. There are some G League vets on the ignite team but those guys are not draft eligible they are there as mentors. Ignite will always have multiple lottery picks just like they did last year. The majority of the lottery is gonna be from intl, NBL, Ignite and OTE going forwards.

How old is Sheppard again? Not sure how many times it has to be said but 100 times out of 100 if one kid is 19 and one is 23 unless the 23 year old is light years better with a flawless game the 19 year old will get drafted first. Is Knecht better than Sheppard? Probably, but an argument can be made and one is 3-4 years younger.

This is not opinion its provable fact. Pick any modern draft. Its been true for decades and is actually just getting more so. The best players are 1 and dones. It is pretty rare for 4 year players in college to develop into super stars these days. They are the exception not the rule.
Click to expand...
Another reason the NBA is becoming unwatchable is the lack of identification with college players who’ve played even two years in college.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo and knoxvol52
#93
#93
Rockytop10nessee said:
sorry, i thought you were talking about knecht... i see now you were talking about edey, and now i agree with you.
Click to expand...
Both are in similar situations. If Edey was 19 they wouldn't be talking about his knocks they'd be talking about his upside. Both are showing they are working on the parts of their game scouts knocked them on. Knecht on his defense and on ball skills and Edey on his athleticism and cardio. I think both are guys that deserve to be drafted fairly early. But the way the NBA works they won't. Given what we know now..that being said there is a lot of basketball left and both teams will be in the thick of the NCAA tourney and their respective conference tourneys. Insane runs there could change a lot. Right now both are doing their parts. Edey is putting up player-of-the-year numbers. Knect is a walking bucket and developing as a good defensive player.

Trust me, I hope they both get drafted 1-2 but something (history) tells me it won't happen. Both of them are the two things that scare NBA GMs to death... Edey is over 7 feet.. look back at lottery picks of 7-footers. most don't last more than a few years because of lower body problems. Knecht is under that Adam Morrison/ Jimmer curse... look back at the history of the draft Since 2006 these are the seniors drafted in the lottery. (note lottery format changed in 2019). If you look closely you'll notice a few patterns. You'll also notice most of these guys outside of Dame are career benchwarmers or busts.
2006: Andrea Bargnani (1st overall)
2006: Randy Foye (7th overall)
2007: Acie Law (11th overall)
2008: Jason Thompson (12th overall)
2009: Tyler Hansbrough (13th overall)
2010: Ekpe Udoh (6th overall)
2011: Jimmer Fredette (10th overall)
2012: Damian Lillard (6th overall)
2012: Kendall Marshall (13th overall)
2013: Kelly Olynyk (13th overall)
2014: Doug McDermott (11th overall)
2015: Frank Kaminsky (9th overall)
2016: Denzel Valentine (14th overall)
2017: Luke Kennard (12th overall)
2019: Cameron Johnson (11th overall)
2020: Patrick Williams (4th overall)
2020: Devin Vassell (11th overall)
2021: Chris Duarte (13th overall)
 
#94
#94
pimo1 said:
Both are in similar situations. If Edey was 19 they wouldn't be talking about his knocks they'd be talking about his upside. Both are showing they are working on the parts of their game scouts knocked them on.
Click to expand...

19 YO's get critiqued too.

This is happening for Knecht now because he's finally on a big stage. Edey's been a known commodity for 2.5 years. NBA teams just really don't care what you can do with your back to the basket, unless you're passing like Lebron/Luka/Jokic out of a backdown. Even Embiid doesn't do it that much. They got him facing the D and beating double teams that way.

Edey just doesn't do anything with a ton of value, except rebound and block shots. You know what Knecht is if his D develops, and that player has value. Even if Edey can run the floor as well as Jock Landale, I'm still not sure what he is.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rockytop10nessee
#95
#95
n_huffhines said:
19 YO's get critiqued too.

This is happening for Knecht now because he's finally on a big stage. Edey's been a known commodity for 2.5 years. NBA teams just really don't care what you can do with your back to the basket, unless you're passing like Lebron/Luka/Jokic out of a backdown. Even Embiid doesn't do it that much. They got him facing the D and beating double teams that way.

Edey just doesn't do anything with a ton of value, except rebound and block shots. You know what Knecht is if his D develops, and that player has value. Even if Edey can run the floor as well as Jock Landale, I'm still not sure what he is.
Click to expand...
and score....Edey right now is the most dominant player in college basketball.. period. Lol he is third in the nation in scoring and rebounding. Knecht is 28th in scoring not in the top 50 in anything else. NBA scouts see Edey as another Ivika Zubac but bigger. Zuback also was drafted below his talent for the same reasons Edey will be....Zubac has been a starter in the NBA since the Lakers traded him in 2018 to the Clippers in a salary dump along with Micheal Beasley for Mike Muscala.

Yes 19year olds get critiqued but it's a different conversation. They are talking about promise and high ceilings... that 22-23-year-old they look at as a finished product. High floor. ready to play...on the bench. I went back to 2006 before my eyes started rolling back in my head. not just the lottery.... very few upperclassmen were even drafted in the first round and most of the ones that went on top be good players were either drafted late first or in the second. The percentage of upperclassmen busts was way higher than the young guys. Think of it from a team perspective. Rookie contracts for lottery picks are normally 4 years with the last 2 being team options. If I sign a 19 year old he will be 23 at the end of his contract...and if he pans out I get his prime years on his second contract. If hes 23 then end of the contract hes 27. 4 years is a long time in NBA years. The average NBA career is 4-5 years. Do you want a guy that already has 4 years of tread on the tires?

I don't think its right but I can look at the numbers and results and see why NBA teams do it that way. The last player of note Drafted in the lottery as a senior was Dame Lillard. After that its pretty much crickets. Even the list of juniors is short. Actually, there was an interesting paper published by Dartmouth in 2022 on this very subject and they found that players between the ages of 19-22 in the draft has no real difference in success in the NBA but players drafted at 23....
sites.dartmouth.edu

Is Youth a Determining Factor of Potential in Today’s NBA Draft?

By Levi Port ’24 Introduction In today’s NBA, youth and potential are often the most coveted qualities of a player during the draft. With the birth of sports analytics and modern advancements…
sites.dartmouth.edu sites.dartmouth.edu

RESULTS​

The variation in all three statistical categories between the ages players were drafted was not significant. Career outcomes, measured by WS, WS/48, and VORP, were quite similar between ages 19-22. Data points for those age groups show a relatively indistinguishable range of NBA-level success. The hypothesis of this study is found to be correct, as the data shows that age is not a significant measure in acquiring NBA talent. However, age 23 results do fall drastically, and ages 24-25 currently do not have enough data points to form statistical inferences.


translation of the end there is that so few players over the age of 24 even get drafted they can't make any inferences on it. 23 is like the cutoff.
 
#96
#96
pimo1 said:
and score....Edey right now is the most dominant player in college basketball.. period. Lol he is third in the nation in scoring and rebounding.
Click to expand...

Like I said, nobody cares about post scoring in the NBA....even if you are pretty good at it, it's less efficient than average NBA offense. Hakeem Olajuwon is the greatest post-scoring talent of all-time and his career shooting efficiency was lower than the NBA league average right now. The league leader in post-ups (Embiid) is only doing it 6.1 times per game. So what is Edey doing if not posting up? His ability to score 23 ppg in college does not translate to the NBA.

Zubac isn't posting up (1.2 post-ups per game). He's screening and rim running, and when he was 21, 22, or whatever age you want to talk about, he was getting around a lot better than Edey. They are not good comps for each other.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheMookieMonster and Ttucke11
#97
#97
pimo1 said:
Both are in similar situations. If Edey was 19 they wouldn't be talking about his knocks they'd be talking about his upside. Both are showing they are working on the parts of their game scouts knocked them on. Knecht on his defense and on ball skills and Edey on his athleticism and cardio. I think both are guys that deserve to be drafted fairly early. But the way the NBA works they won't. Given what we know now..that being said there is a lot of basketball left and both teams will be in the thick of the NCAA tourney and their respective conference tourneys. Insane runs there could change a lot. Right now both are doing their parts. Edey is putting up player-of-the-year numbers. Knect is a walking bucket and developing as a good defensive player.

Trust me, I hope they both get drafted 1-2 but something (history) tells me it won't happen. Both of them are the two things that scare NBA GMs to death... Edey is over 7 feet.. look back at lottery picks of 7-footers. most don't last more than a few years because of lower body problems. Knecht is under that Adam Morrison/ Jimmer curse... look back at the history of the draft Since 2006 these are the seniors drafted in the lottery. (note lottery format changed in 2019). If you look closely you'll notice a few patterns. You'll also notice most of these guys outside of Dame are career benchwarmers or busts.
2006: Andrea Bargnani (1st overall)
2006: Randy Foye (7th overall)
2007: Acie Law (11th overall)
2008: Jason Thompson (12th overall)
2009: Tyler Hansbrough (13th overall)
2010: Ekpe Udoh (6th overall)
2011: Jimmer Fredette (10th overall)
2012: Damian Lillard (6th overall)
2012: Kendall Marshall (13th overall)
2013: Kelly Olynyk (13th overall)
2014: Doug McDermott (11th overall)
2015: Frank Kaminsky (9th overall)
2016: Denzel Valentine (14th overall)
2017: Luke Kennard (12th overall)
2019: Cameron Johnson (11th overall)
2020: Patrick Williams (4th overall)
2020: Devin Vassell (11th overall)
2021: Chris Duarte (13th overall)
Click to expand...
Edey vs Knecht is apple to oranges. Knecht is showing his stuff in a big stage for the first time. Edey is a known commodity.
 
  • Like
Reactions: walkenvol, pimo1 and BernardKingGOAT
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top