Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

Gotta get that bailout money some how...

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I can somewhat reproduce these results (but still not quite) if I use the CDC's ILI data, but stop at April 18 instead of April 25th.

However, the CDC warns that their modeling that produces "total deaths" numbers in the ILI report is currently suspect because of how CV is affecting the data.

They instead are tracking these differently in the CLI (covid-like illness report). A very interesting plot that they include in this is the "Excess Death" plot. You can go view it here for different regions:
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

The key issue is that it takes roughly 8 weeks for CDC to get death certificates. They trickle in initially and usually the have a good count within a few weeks but they can tail in within 8 weeks. So, all current data is estimated from models that have to be tuned to new data, so there is error. They explicitly say, even on the CLI report, that "Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete."

If you look at actual provisional counts, for example (without this extra weighting), from here:
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19):
, then can see provisional death data from 2/1/20 through 4/25/20. New York is broken down in the state and city (the state excludes the city). Adding those together, you get 16,345 CV deaths vs. 63,395 total deaths. Pulling CDC Wonder data, you would normally expect 39,651 deaths in NY over these three months (2014-2018 average). Also, this data isn't fully populated yet for 2020 due to the delays, so they'll keep coming up. Also, we are missing the last week of April entirely in this data. So it is clear that total deaths are way above average over this period, and almost all of this is in April - which was just a horrible month. Also, this tells us that the plot referenced above cannot be correct.

For example, if you just look at the last four weeks of data (weeks ending April 4 through April 25) - the provisional death data (this doesn't include all the death certificates yet) is 33,027 deaths in NY state, including NY city. If you look at CDC Wonder data, there would typically be around 13,000 deaths in April. Of those 33,027 death certificates obtained by CDC for those weeks, 15,079 listed COVID.

The data is all there in the links above. I would used the CIL data. I would definitely not take COVID tracking data, combine it with ILI data, and subtract out the difference to calculate "other deaths", which is what this plot did.
 
As I understand it the tax rate is the same. They just reassessed property value. So they didn’t raise rates. They are just saying your property is worth more. Which is probably true based on the boom Nashville has been experiencing. I hate taxation in general but frame the issue correctly.

No, I’m pretty sure it’s a rate increase. Assessment wouldn’t need to be passed by the city council.
 
Lulz. I have no clue, I just imagine there is more blood, guts, fat, feces, urine in the holding pens, feathers, hair, body parts etc of animals in one of those plants than there are in all of the automotive plants. That's all I meant.
I worked in that industry for 5 years, and have been to Smithfield multiple times. Meat plants are where happiness goes to die.

From my experience, I've been in meat plants that I would eat off the floor, and I've been in meat plants where I make a note never to buy their product.

It's generally not the gross atrocity stuff like Food Inc makes it out to be.
 
Gotta get that bailout money some how...

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Here is the version I get for April New York Deaths:

New York April Deaths Comparison.PNG

Here is the actual data I pull for 2020 the the CDC provisional death data (the data in the plot I'm replying to was pulled from ILI flunet, which is a modeled number and not accurate right now, per the CDC). The provisional death data from CDC is derived from death certificates obtained by CDC. Most death certificates are obtained within 10 days but it can take up to 8 weeks. So, the numbers for 2020 are likely to rise, but probably not by more than 10% or so. However, the numbers above are shown as obtained directly form the CDC, without modification.


(Also, this is only for 28 days of data, so a full month of April (which is what is included in the '14-'18 average, which was taken from the CDC WONDER database) would actually be 7% higher than I show here - or a total of 35,300 for 2020 (pending revision up as the remainder of the death certificates come in)).
 
Trump just needs to stand below a banner that reads "MISSION : ACCOMPLISHED". That really is the only grandstanding maneuver left for him to do now. Such a trivial matter as 30 million Americans filing for jobless benefits in the last six weeks, shouldn't keep Trump away from his victory lap.
 
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Maybe Trump has the power to do this, but its such a bad look for the administration that they did this.

For one thing, it gives the appearance they are afraid of him telling the truth about both the status of the virus now and the mismanagement of things at the beginning.

For another, it gives the impression that the one guy there that really knows what he's doing is so far from Trump' viewpoint that they don't want that exposed.

It is exactly the guy's job to know the facts and relay them to us. To help us. And Trump and his administration shut him down from that crucial function just to save Trump's ego?

Bad form. Really bad.
 
Maybe Trump has the power to do this, but its such a bad look for the administration that they did this.

For one thing, it gives the appearance they are afraid of him telling the truth about both the status of the virus now and the mismanagement of things at the beginning.

For another, it gives the impression that the one guy there that really knows what he's doing is so far from Trump' viewpoint that they don't want that exposed.

It is exactly the guy's job to know the facts and relay them to us. To help us. And Trump and his administration shut him down from that crucial function just to save Trump's ego?

Bad form. Really bad.
It is not a good look maybe, but isn't Fauci already on a lot of the news channels to relay info to the public?
And I would think the House would need to get moving on any additional items to deal with this crisis right now (since they've been gone).
I'm not sure the House can multitask and do both.
 
Maybe Trump has the power to do this, but its such a bad look for the administration that they did this.

For one thing, it gives the appearance they are afraid of him telling the truth about both the status of the virus now and the mismanagement of things at the beginning.

For another, it gives the impression that the one guy there that really knows what he's doing is so far from Trump' viewpoint that they don't want that exposed.

It is exactly the guy's job to know the facts and relay them to us. To help us. And Trump and his administration shut him down from that crucial function just to save Trump's ego?

Bad form. Really bad.
The politics of protecting Trump's ego are always at the forefront with this administration .... Always.
 

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