Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[MontyPython]

What % of the population do you believe has had it and not known?

No clue.

Rate of Positive Tests in the US and States Over Time

 

[LouderVol]

Correct. The case fatality rate of CV19 is 5.4%. For adult seasonal flu, that rate is about 0.1%

The Covid numbers are based on hard numbers of actual confirmed cases. Although we are likely seeing plenty of double counts and such.

The flu season numbers are based on extrapolations based on the entire population.

If you look at the actual number of positives for the flu you get:

Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 Season and Composition of the 2019–20 Influenza Vaccine.

About 1.1 million tested in during the flu season. 177k were positive and 34k of which died. Which is more than 19% .

So if you are going to say 5% from Covid, its 19% from the flu.

Now anybody with two brain cells knows the number of positives isnt the number of cases. And thus would know NOT to take that as the mortality rate.

 

[0nelilreb]

The Covid numbers are based on hard numbers of actual confirmed cases. Although we are likely seeing plenty of double counts and such.

The flu season numbers are based on extrapolations based on the entire population.

If you look at the actual number of positives for the flu you get:

Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 Season and Composition of the 2019–20 Influenza Vaccine.

About 1.1 million tested in during the flu season. 177k were positive and 34k of which died. Which is more than 19% .

So if you are going to say 5% from Covid, its 19% from the flu.

Now anybody with two brain cells knows the number of positives isnt the number of cases. And thus would know NOT to take that as the mortality rate.

That was very well laid out . I can’t wait to see if that light bulb comes on .

 

[hog88]

The Covid numbers are based on hard numbers of actual confirmed cases. Although we are likely seeing plenty of double counts and such.

The flu season numbers are based on extrapolations based on the entire population.

If you look at the actual number of positives for the flu you get:

Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 Season and Composition of the 2019–20 Influenza Vaccine.

About 1.1 million tested in during the flu season. 177k were positive and 34k of which died. Which is more than 19% .

So if you are going to say 5% from Covid, its 19% from the flu.

Now anybody with two brain cells knows the number of positives isnt the number of cases. And thus would know NOT to take that as the mortality rate.

That is taking someone to the woodshed.

 

[MontyPython]

The Covid numbers are based on hard numbers of actual confirmed cases. Although we are likely seeing plenty of double counts and such.

The flu season numbers are based on extrapolations based on the entire population.

If you look at the actual number of positives for the flu you get:

Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 Season and Composition of the 2019–20 Influenza Vaccine.

About 1.1 million tested in during the flu season. 177k were positive and 34k of which died. Which is more than 19% .

So if you are going to say 5% from Covid, its 19% from the flu.

Now anybody with two brain cells knows the number of positives isnt the number of cases. And thus would know NOT to take that as the mortality rate.

So, by your math, you'd have us believe the common flu is nearly 4x more deadly than COVID-19. At first blush, does it not even give you pause to consider what you're claiming? I mean, I get that Trump fans are gullible, but you're really gonna trot out a number that the common flu is 4x deadlier than Coronavirus?

SMH.

Sir, set down the calculator. Let me see your hands in the air where I can see them. Alright. Now SLOWLY step back two paces. Don't even look at that calculator.

Per JAMA, the commonly cited case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is 0.1%. Not 19%.

 

[Matt2496]

The Covid numbers are based on hard numbers of actual confirmed cases. Although we are likely seeing plenty of double counts and such.

The flu season numbers are based on extrapolations based on the entire population.

If you look at the actual number of positives for the flu you get:

Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 Season and Composition of the 2019–20 Influenza Vaccine.

About 1.1 million tested in during the flu season. 177k were positive and 34k of which died. Which is more than 19% .

So if you are going to say 5% from Covid, its 19% from the flu.

Now anybody with two brain cells knows the number of positives isnt the number of cases. And thus would know NOT to take that as the mortality rate.

I regret I have but one like to give for this post.

 

[LouderVol]

Sir, set down the calculator. Let me see your hands in the air where I can see them. Alright. Now SLOWLY step back two paces. Don't even look at that calculator.

Per JAMA, the commonly cited case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is 0.1%. Not 19%. SMH.

You are apples and oranging here.

You are using two different data sets (confirmed vs extraploated) to make a bad argument. I took your oranges (or apples) and applied it to the flu.

Either you need to own up to your bad argument, or you need to accept that the mortality rate for the Flu is way higher than reasonable people accept.

 

[MontyPython]

 

[MontyPython]

You are apples and oranging here.

You are using two different data sets (confirmed vs extraploated) to make a bad argument. I took your oranges (or apples) and applied it to the flu.

Either you need to own up to your bad argument, or you need to accept that the mortality rate for the Flu is way higher than reasonable people accept.

Dude, here are the facts, per the CDC:

The historic case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is estimated at 0.1%.
The CURRENT case fatality rate of COVID-19 is estimated at 5.4%.

Eventually, results from serologic studies will help to determine a more accurate denominator for the case fatality rate. But for now, it's 5.4% in the US.

 

[allvol123]

Dude, here are the facts, per the CDC:

The historic case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is estimated at 0.1%.
The CURRENT case fatality rate of COVID-19 is estimated at 5.4%.

Eventually, results from serologic studies will help to determine a more accurate denominator for the case fatality rate. But for now, it's 5.4% in the US.

CFRs arent estimates.

 

[UT_VOLS13]

Cuomo brushes off criticism over nursing home deaths as 'shiny object'

 

[RikidyBones]

Dude, here are the facts, per the CDC:

The historic case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is estimated at 0.1%.
The CURRENT case fatality rate of COVID-19 is estimated at 5.4%.

Eventually, results from serologic studies will help to determine a more accurate denominator for the case fatality rate. But for now, it's 5.4% in the US.

 

[LouderVol]

Dude, here are the facts, per the CDC:

The historic case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is estimated at 0.1%.
The CURRENT case fatality rate of COVID-19 is estimated at 5.4%.

Eventually, results from serologic studies will help to determine a more accurate denominator for the case fatality rate. But for now, it's 5.4% in the US.

The Covid numbers arent estimated. At least not the numbers you have provided. Which is why I went and found similar info for the Flu.

You are still trying to use two different sets of data to make your argument.

 

[MontyPython]

The Covid numbers arent estimated. At least not the numbers you have provided. Which is why I went and found similar info for the Flu.

You are still trying to use two different sets of data to make your argument.

 

[LouderVol]

View attachment 287604

It must be the "San Diego" I smell coming off your arguments, because they stink.

 

[Sea Ray]

Dude, here are the facts, per the CDC:

The historic case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is estimated at 0.1%.
The CURRENT case fatality rate of COVID-19 is estimated at 5.4%.

Eventually, results from serologic studies will help to determine a more accurate denominator for the case fatality rate. But for now, it's 5.4% in the US.

Anyone else here notice that one person is giving links to facts and the other is just spitballing?

 

[Sea Ray]

The Covid numbers arent estimated. At least not the numbers you have provided. Which is why I went and found similar info for the Flu.

You are still trying to use two different sets of data to make your argument.

Exactly right. Are we going to base these numbers on actual positive tests or estimates? The 0.1% is based on estimates:

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza,

Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC

Someone who equates actual positive tests with estimates isn't worth arguing with.

 

[LouderVol]

Exactly right. Are we going to base these numbers on actual positive tests or estimates? The 0.1% is based on estimates:



Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC

Someone who equates actual positive tests with estimates isn't worth arguing with.

Hes been wrong a number of times now in this thread.

 

[Sea Ray]

Some people hit rock bottom and keep digging

 

[allvol123]

Some people hit rock bottom and keep digging

He literally is using 2 different terms to compare and doesnt understand.

 

[TennTradition]

Dude, here are the facts, per the CDC:

The historic case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is estimated at 0.1%.
The CURRENT case fatality rate of COVID-19 is estimated at 5.4%.

Eventually, results from serologic studies will help to determine a more accurate denominator for the case fatality rate. But for now, it's 5.4% in the US.

No, that 0.1% is the symptomatic case fatality rate and is absolutely based on projection of total symptomatic cases.

You saw the numbers presented. Dividing the measured deaths by the detected cases for flu will give you a much higher number. And a number that is fairly meaningless.

But, in that same way, the case fatality rate for CV is also meaningless. The number that really matters is, if I am infected, what is the probability that I die. And that number, averaged across the age brackets in the US, is less than 5%. And appears to be well less than 1%.

 

[TennTradition]

The flu kills 0.1% of people infected.

COVID-19 kills 5.0% of people infected. (Edit: as clarification, 5% of confirmed CV19 cases).

But, yeah, you keep on rationalizing your narcissism.

Here's the big problem. You can argue all day if you want about case fatality rates.

Your statement above - COVID-19 kills 5% of people INFECTED means you are saying the iFR (not the sFR or the CFR) is 5%. This is false.

 

[TennTradition]

The Covid numbers are based on hard numbers of actual confirmed cases. Although we are likely seeing plenty of double counts and such.

The flu season numbers are based on extrapolations based on the entire population.

If you look at the actual number of positives for the flu you get:

Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 Season and Composition of the 2019–20 Influenza Vaccine.

About 1.1 million tested in during the flu season. 177k were positive and 34k of which died. Which is more than 19% .

So if you are going to say 5% from Covid, its 19% from the flu.

Now anybody with two brain cells knows the number of positives isnt the number of cases. And thus would know NOT to take that as the mortality rate.

I'll amend this slightly. That 34k death number is also modeled. Using recorded death certificates, which is typically the standard we apply to CV19, the 2018-2019 flu deaths were only 7,173. So, that gives a measured CFR of 4%, which we know is much higher than the accepted sFR of roughly 0.1%.

 

[LouderVol]

I'll amend this slightly. That 34k death number is also modeled. Using recorded death certificates, which is typically the standard we apply to CV19, the 2018-2019 flu deaths were only 7,173. So, that gives a measured CFR of 4%, which we know is much higher than the accepted sFR of roughly 0.1%.

Thank you. I didnt realize the 34k was modeled.

 

[MontyPython]

No, that 0.1% is the symptomatic case fatality rate and is absolutely based on projection of total symptomatic cases.

You saw the numbers presented. Dividing the measured deaths by the detected cases for flu will give you a much higher number. And a number that is fairly meaningless.

But, in that same way, the case fatality rate for CV is also meaningless. The number that really matters is, if I am infected, what is the probability that I die. And that number, averaged across the age brackets in the US, is less than 5%. And appears to be well less than 1%.

Well, I guess the good news is you think you know more that Dr. Fauci, the WHO, the CDC and a bunch of other scientists studying COVID-19. Kudos to your ego.

The bad news is you're simply wrong.

Here are the facts with supporting links:

How the coronavirus compares with the flu

World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news briefing March 3 that the global case fatality rate for the coronavirus is believed to be about 3.4 percent, higher than the 2.3 percent reported in a China CDC study released in February. But a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine last week found a death rate of 1.4 percent among a group of 1,099 patients, suggesting the rate could be lower than those reported by the WHO and Chinese officials.

“By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected,” Tedros said of the global flu caseload during the news briefing.

Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that the mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.1 percent."


The computation of case fatality rate for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) based on Bayes theorem

Principle findings

"The CFR (3.7%) greater than the prior-CFR of 2.2% was evident in LSBHRS impact on the CFR. A dashboard was created to present the CFRs."


Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza

"...Eventually, results from serologic studies will help to determine a more accurate denominator for the case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2.

At present, the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak is one of the few situations for which complete data are available. For this outbreak, the case fatality rate as of late April 2020 was 1.8% (13 deaths out of 712 cases); age adjusted to reflect the general population, the figure would have been closer to 0.5%.1,9 A case fatality rate of 0.5% would still be 5 times the commonly cited case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza."


# # #

So, as concluded, the *global* case fatality rates of CV19 were previously estimated at 2.2%, then raised to 3.4% and 3.7% based on varying studies.

Here in the US, our case fatality rates have been higher to date (5.4%).

In comparison, the case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is about 0.1%

I hope this settles this debate. If not, I have nothing else to add. You're welcome to ignore reality.