Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#60,776
#60,776
MontyPython said:
Well, I guess the good news is you think you know more that Dr. Fauci, the WHO, the CDC and a bunch of other scientists studying COVID-19. Kudos to your ego.

The bad news is you're simply wrong.

Here are the facts with supporting links:

How the coronavirus compares with the flu

World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news briefing March 3 that the global case fatality rate for the coronavirus is believed to be about 3.4 percent, higher than the 2.3 percent reported in a China CDC study released in February. But a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine last week found a death rate of 1.4 percent among a group of 1,099 patients, suggesting the rate could be lower than those reported by the WHO and Chinese officials.

“By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected,” Tedros said of the global flu caseload during the news briefing.

Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that the mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.1 percent."


The computation of case fatality rate for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) based on Bayes theorem

Principle findings

"The CFR (3.7%) greater than the prior-CFR of 2.2% was evident in LSBHRS impact on the CFR. A dashboard was created to present the CFRs."


Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza

"...Eventually, results from serologic studies will help to determine a more accurate denominator for the case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2.

At present, the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak is one of the few situations for which complete data are available. For this outbreak, the case fatality rate as of late April 2020 was 1.8% (13 deaths out of 712 cases); age adjusted to reflect the general population, the figure would have been closer to 0.5%.1,9 A case fatality rate of 0.5% would still be 5 times the commonly cited case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza."


# # #

So, as concluded, the *global* case fatality rates of CV19 were previously estimated at 2.2%, then raised to 3.4% and 3.7% based on varying studies.

Here in the US, our case fatality rates have been higher to date (5.4%).

In comparison, the case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza is about 0.1%

I hope this settles this debate. If not, I have nothing else to add. You're welcome to ignore reality.
Click to expand...

First, where in any of that did I contradict CDC/WHO/Fauci?

Let's go back a bit.

You are citing a case fatality rate of 5.4%, and then saying "if you are infected, you have a 5.4% mortality rate." That is a basic conflation of CASE fatality rate and INFECTION fatality rate. They are fundamentally different unless you are measuring (cases are measured infection) EVERY infection. the upper limit of the iFR is the CFR.

Furthermore, the 0.1% for flu is a SYMPTOMATIC fatality rate (the portion of infections that become symptomatic). This is what the CDC material makes clear if you read it. If someone casually refers to it as something other than the sFR, they are technically incorrect. You can take the same official CDC numbers and calculate the flu CASE fatality rate and see that it was 4% last year. That's a meaningless number, but that is what it was.

And in most discussions, that technicality isn't all that important. But, in this discussion - it is critically important. Because we are comparing numbers between diseases....and in one case taking the sFR and the other taking the CFR (which is higher than both the iFR and the sFR). Eventually we'll be able to model out CV19 and get a better estimate on its true iFR. Antibody testing is a good route to that. And from the early work, it seems like the number will end up being around 0.3%.

Please continue this dialogue because you are making some mistakes in your interpretation. I'm sure of it. I don't know if they are purposeful or not. But, I'd love to iron them out.
 
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#60,780
#60,780
Apple stock drops after report says company will re-close some locations
Published: June 19, 2020 at 12:42 p.m. ET

Shares of Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.61% are off 0.6% in Friday trading after the company was reported to be planning re-closures of some locations due to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. The company is re-closing certain stores in Florida and Arizona, a CNBC report said Friday. A tweet from Bloomberg said that the company would also be re-closing some stores in North Carolina and South Carolina. The company was among the first to temporarily close locations outside of China earlier this year, and it had been gradually reopening stores.

# # #

This is why the CV19 case numbers matter.

And so it begins...

az_cases.jpg

az_beds.jpg

az_vents.jpg
 
Last edited:
#60,781
#60,781
MontyPython said:
Absolutely. Just like the government forces you to wear a seat belt, not drink and drive, not exceed a certain speed and pay your taxes.

This isn't just about YOU.

What you do can affect - and kill - other people.
Click to expand...

You must wear a seat belt!

But hop right on in the bed of that truck...
Ride a motorcycle with no helmet...
Ride a bicycle on the road...

I'll never understand the seat belt law.
 
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#60,788
#60,788
AMC Theatres reverses face mask policy after outcry and will now require guests to wear them
Published: June 19, 2020 at 1:20 p.m. ET

AMC Theatres, the biggest cinema chain in the U.S. that's owned by AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. AMC, 1.87%, said Friday it will require all guests to wear face masks when it reopens its cinemas across the U.S. on July 15. The Leawood, Kansas-based company said it made the decision after listening to its customers and to scientific advisers, who recommend face masks to stop the spread of the coronavirus illness COVID-19.

The announcement comes after AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron told Variety on Thursday that the company would not force customers to wear face masks, as he did not want to become part of what is now a political hot potato.

His comments "prompted an intense and immediate outcry from our customers, and it is clear from this response that we did not go far enough on the usage of masks," the executive said on Friday.

# # #

How exactly does the popcorn and a drink thing work here?
 
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#60,789
#60,789
MontyPython said:
AMC Theatres reverses face mask policy after outcry and will now require guests to wear them
Published: June 19, 2020 at 1:20 p.m. ET

AMC Theatres, the biggest cinema chain in the U.S. that's owned by AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. AMC, 1.87%, said Friday it will require all guests to wear face masks when it reopens its cinemas across the U.S. on July 15. The Leawood, Kansas-based company said it made the decision after listening to its customers and to scientific advisers, who recommend face masks to stop the spread of the coronavirus illness COVID-19.

The announcement comes after AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron told Variety on Thursday that the company would not force customers to wear face masks, as he did not want to become part of what is now a political hot potato.

His comments "prompted an intense and immediate outcry from our customers, and it is clear from this response that we did not go far enough on the usage of masks," the executive said on Friday.

# # #

How exactly does the popcorn and a drink thing work here?
Click to expand...
Doesnt matter, they blinked and bowed to the mob, they lost more doing that 180 than if they stayed on their original course.
 
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#60,799
#60,799
newyorkvol said:
The differences are still there. I saw the whistle. But there is definitely enough information out that shows close confined space is a higher risk than outdoors. And it doesn’t fly around “through” ventilation. But tracing from restaurant cases have literally shown people infected were in the flow pattern of the HVAC downstream from the carrier.
Click to expand...
Restaurants have a very specific air flow to keep smells from the kitchen out of the dining room and the heat or cold of the outside from causing issues for the customers. The air flow of an arena will be nothing like a restaurant so, while both indoors, the situations are likely quite different.
 
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