Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#64,579
#64,579
VolFaninFla said:
Copied:
HOW CAN A DISEASE WITH 1% MORTALITY RATE SHUT DOWN THE UNITED STATES?
There are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
For every one person who dies:
- 19 more require hospitalization.
- 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
- 10 will have permanent lung damage.
- 3 will have strokes.
- 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
- 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
- 3,282,000 people dead.
- 62,358,000 hospitalized.
- 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
- 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
- 9,846,000 people with strokes.
- 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
- 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.
The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
Edit: This is blanket permission to c/p.
Click to expand...

Thank you for laying out the potential widespread effects. Most folks here want quick, simple answers to complex problems. This is not the case, I'm afraid.
 
#64,584
#64,584
VolFaninFla said:
Copied:
HOW CAN A DISEASE WITH 1% MORTALITY RATE SHUT DOWN THE UNITED STATES?
There are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
For every one person who dies:
- 19 more require hospitalization.
- 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
- 10 will have permanent lung damage.
- 3 will have strokes.
- 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
- 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
- 3,282,000 people dead.
- 62,358,000 hospitalized.
- 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
- 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
- 9,846,000 people with strokes.
- 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
- 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.
The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
Edit: This is blanket permission to c/p.
Click to expand...
Fear porn
 
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#64,597
#64,597
volfanjustin said:
Clearly Sankey is a moron he has bought into the fear. I am still standing by my statement that there won’t be a football season
Click to expand...


I don't know, obviously, and have mixed feelings. It certainly seems as if you could be right about the lack of a season at this point, but the outcome of today's AD meeting in Birmingham strikes me as if no one behind closed doors actually "wants" to abbreviate/postpone/cancel the season.

I'm not trying to imply that the brass in the Big Ten/Pac-12 are happy with/prefer the choices that they've made, presently limiting to conference games and very possibly cancelling altogether, but they looked at the same data the SEC has and made what they believed to be a prudent decision relative to player/staff/fan safety. On the other hand, it really does feel to me as if the SEC is trying to delay this to the extent that they can just say "well, it's so late in the game that we're going to give it a shot and play because metrics X/Y/Z have improved slightly." I don't see why they'd want to lead on their fans/teams/vendors (are we ordering giant Bud Light pounders yet? Why did we go ahead and buy Coach Majors decals?) if they had already made up their mind and could start publicly getting the ball rolling on figuring out how to pay for everything.
 
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#64,598
#64,598
kiddiedoc said:
So, roughly the same number of deaths as caused by Alzheimer's in a day. Less than the number caused by accidents.
Click to expand...

Are you trying to say F them too? I thought Doctors were supposed to preserve and to try to save lives. What are you trying to do?
 
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