Lunardi's early early bracket is up

#51
#51
zansdad said:
Beal is a lottery pick. If you lose a lottery pick and don't replace him with equal talent, how can you be better?
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Because its a team sport, and one player does not make a team. The team loses two players, but on the whole, they will be more experienced and returns 3 of 5 starters with a year more of experience.

Was Tennessee's football team better the year after Peyton Manning was drafted #1 overall? Yes. Was Tee Martin equal or better talent? No, but the TEAM was better overall and more experienced.
 
#52
#52
zansdad said:
Final 8 doesn't make a team one of the 8 best teams. You know that as well as I do. If you use that logic then Butler was the 2nd best team in the country 2 of the last 3 years. Or that Grorgia was the best team in the SEC the year of the tornado in Atlanta.
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I was being just a little sarcastic, but in a tournament sport like basketball, who cares if the perceived "best" team finishes undefeated, but loses in the first round of the tournament? Were they the best team? In a tournament sport, the perception of best, second best, and so on, is very subjective depending on whether you weigh the regular season or the postseason more heavily.
 
#53
#53
zansdad said:
People are crazy high on Florida. I guess Beal leaving is not supposed to be a big deal.
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Considering that they return Kenny Boynton, Erik Murphy, Patric Young, Scottie Wilbekin, Will Yeguete, Mike Rosario, and Casey Prather, and also bring in Braxton Ogbueze, Michael Frazier, and *possibly* Anthony Bennett, a 2 seed isn't crazy. Maybe we'll be inconsistent like this past season, but Wilbekin, who is more of a true point guard than Walker, should even out the highs and lows, imo.

Tennessee seemed a little low; I think they'll be around a six or seven. Alabama's absence confuses me... Why would a team who was in the tournament the season before that returned four starters miss the tournament completely? Ole Miss seems about right... They'll be right on the edge, one way or another.
 
#54
#54
zansdad said:
Beal is a lottery pick. If you lose a lottery pick and don't replace him with equal talent, how can you be better?
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It's not that simple... Young has only scratched the surface of his potential, as has Casey Prather. Scottie Wilbekin is a true point guard who doesn't make dumb decisions, and he is the best on-ball defender we've had in a long time. His offense is good enough, but he won't light other teams up. He's really the complete opposite of Erving Walker. Florida is also one of the leaders (if not the leader) for Anthony Bennett, and he'd probably play SF for us next year if he came.

Rosario isn't our point guard, by the way. That would be suicide... He likes to shoot. A lot.
 
#55
#55
bleedingTNorange said:
You seem to really like Rosario, maybe I'm in the minority but he's an issue IMO. Dude likes shooting more than walker, and isn't he PG walker was IMO.

Going ahead and saying Rosario will be better than walker IMO isn't accurate.
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No, it's not. However, saying Wilbekin will be better than Walker is accurate. :)


MemphisCanes said:
I don't get UNC as a 2 seed.
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Neither do I.
 
#58
#58
GatorsGators said:
They made the tournament without Green...
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If they didn't have green throughout the entire year I don't think they would have. And actually green returned prior to the tournament iirc.

If they played the whole yea without green and Mitchell I don't believe they'd have been dancing.

Having either of those 2 for the entire year next year, and adding nobody new to help replace them, I see why lunardi doesn't have them in.
 
#59
#59
bleedingTNorange said:
If they didn't have green throughout the entire year I don't think they would have. And actually green returned prior to the tournament iirc.

If they played the whole yea without green and Mitchell I don't believe they'd have been dancing.

Having either of those 2 for the entire year next year, and adding nobody new to help replace them, I see why lunardi doesn't have them in.
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Meant Mitchell, my bad... They looked a lot better without Mitchell than with him. Andrew Steele, Rodney Cooper, and Levi Randolph can all play the wing.

Again, how good a team will be isn't as simple as addition and subtraction. Alabama had a ton of freshman playing a lot of minutes this season. Trevor Lacey, Levi Randolph, Rodney Cooper, and Nick Jacobs were all very highly-rated out of high school, and all showed plenty of upside this past year. With veterans Trevor Releford and Andrew Steele returning, they should be in the tournament fairly easily next year.

Also, they're one of Devonta Pollard's finalists. Most think it's between them and Georgetown. He'd replace Mitchell and then some.
 
#60
#60
As I said taking away clearly their best player, and probably their 2nd best player is a tall task. I don't think they'll be horrible, but what were they a 8 seed this year???

Take away their top 2 players and i clearly understand why lunardi would have them out of the tournament. Once again, that doesn't mean I think that they'll be bad, or that I think they'll miss the tourny, just rationalizing what lunardi may be thinking.

You take away stokes and maymon from Tennessee and I wouldn't expect us to be a better team.
 
#61
#61
bleedingTNorange said:
As I said taking away clearly their best player, and probably their 2nd best player is a tall task. I don't think they'll be horrible, but what were they a 8 seed this year???

Take away their top 2 players and i clearly understand why lunardi would have them out of the tournament. Once again, that doesn't mean I think that they'll be bad, or that I think they'll miss the tourny, just rationalizing what lunardi may be thinking.

You take away stokes and maymon from Tennessee and I wouldn't expect us to be a better team.
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If Stokes had been suspended for the final third of the season, and then Tennessee played their way into the tournament without him, I wouldn't consider it a huge loss. That's what happened with Mitchell. They were an NCAA-caliber team without him last year, so it's unreasonable to think they'll suddenly be worse without him next year. Green will be a little bit tougher to replace, but Nick Jacobs and Moussa Gueye aren't scrubs. They'll be in the tournament next year. It wouldn't be the first time Lunardi has made a mistake.
 
#62
#62
Alabama deserved to be in the tourney. If UT lost Stokes like Bama lost their plays, no way in hell UT gets even close to the bubble.

UK, UT, Bama, UF, Mizz seem to be the sec teams this year going dancing from early looks of it.
 
#63
#63
BigPapaCat said:
Alabama deserved to be in the tourney. If UT lost Stokes like Bama lost their plays, no way in hell UT gets even close to the bubble.

UK, UT, Bama, UF, Mizz seem to be the sec teams this year going dancing from early looks of it.
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Agreed.

Ole Miss and Arkansas will be bubble teams as well, imo. Arkansas returns some really nice pieces (BJ Young, Hunter Mickleson, Macradus Wade), and Marshawn Powell should be back healthy. A Houston transfer, Alandisse Harris, is applying for a hardship waiver to play next season. If he's eligible, they could be very good.
 
#64
#64
cncchris33 said:
Because its a team sport, and one player does not make a team. The team loses two players, but on the whole, they will be more experienced and returns 3 of 5 starters with a year more of experience.

Was Tennessee's football team better the year after Peyton Manning was drafted #1 overall? Yes. Was Tee Martin equal or better talent? No, but the TEAM was better overall and more experienced.
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That last example is not a good one. I think if you line Peyton's team up vs Tee's, Manning wins. UT got a lot of lucky breaks that year, not to mention Florida at home I believe. It was more a season of destiny than that team being better than the team the year before.
 
#65
#65
cncchris33 said:
I was being just a little sarcastic, but in a tournament sport like basketball, who cares if the perceived "best" team finishes undefeated, but loses in the first round of the tournament? Were they the best team? In a tournament sport, the perception of best, second best, and so on, is very subjective depending on whether you weigh the regular season or the postseason more heavily.
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No. Best is best. However in a format like college basketball you cannot find the best team. You have to settle for the best in March. Some years (like this year) it's the same thing. Other years you get teams that are middle of the pack in their own conference (like last year). All sports suffer from this to one degree or another, but college basketball is the worst of the major sports.
 
#66
#66
GatorsGators said:
It's not that simple... Young has only scratched the surface of his potential, as has Casey Prather. Scottie Wilbekin is a true point guard who doesn't make dumb decisions, and he is the best on-ball defender we've had in a long time. His offense is good enough, but he won't light other teams up. He's really the complete opposite of Erving Walker. Florida is also one of the leaders (if not the leader) for Anthony Bennett, and he'd probably play SF for us next year if he came.

Rosario isn't our point guard, by the way. That would be suicide... He likes to shoot. A lot.
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It is that easy though. You don't lose a player of Beal's talent and not replace it and expect to be better. With only 5 guys on the court, 1 guy makes a huge difference if you don't replace him. If UF replaces him with another 5 star then fine. But 2 4 stars do not replace a lottery pick.
 
#67
#67
GatorsGators said:
If Stokes had been suspended for the final third of the season, and then Tennessee played their way into the tournament without him, I wouldn't consider it a huge loss. That's what happened with Mitchell. They were an NCAA-caliber team without him last year, so it's unreasonable to think they'll suddenly be worse without him next year. Green will be a little bit tougher to replace, but Nick Jacobs and Moussa Gueye aren't scrubs. They'll be in the tournament next year. It wouldn't be the first time Lunardi has made a mistake.
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Bama got in the tourny based on their play with Mitchel in the line-up. All they did down the stretch was beat enough SEC (old) West teams to not fall out of the tourney.
 
#68
#68
GatorsGators said:
If Stokes had been suspended for the final third of the season, and then Tennessee played their way into the tournament without him, I wouldn't consider it a huge loss. That's what happened with Mitchell. They were an NCAA-caliber team without him last year, so it's unreasonable to think they'll suddenly be worse without him next year. Green will be a little bit tougher to replace, but Nick Jacobs and Moussa Gueye aren't scrubs. They'll be in the tournament next year. It wouldn't be the first time Lunardi has made a mistake.
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Yes Alabama played well without Mitchell, but with green.

How'd they do without the both of them???
 
#69
#69
bleedingTNorange said:
Yes Alabama played well without Mitchell, but with green.

How'd they do without the both of them???
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2-1. You can't count the LSU game because they were also without Releford and Steele, who they will have next year. In those three games, they lost to Florida, beat Tennessee, and beat Arkansas.

zansdad said:
Bama got in the tourny based on their play with Mitchel in the line-up. All they did down the stretch was beat enough SEC (old) West teams to not fall out of the tourney.
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This is true, but they turned the season around after suspending Mitchell. They lost to South Carolina with Mitchell.
 
#70
#70
GatorsGators said:
2-1. You can't count the LSU game because they were also without Releford and Steele, who they will have next year. In those three games, they lost to Florida, beat Tennessee, and beat Arkansas.



This is true, but they turned the season around after suspending Mitchell. They lost to South Carolina with Mitchell.
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Well I was counting the 2nd loss, neither you or I know be outcome had Releford and Steele been there, so a L is a L.

So they were 2-2 and beat us, which was one of our worst played games. Point being, missin both green and Mitchell they looked like a .500 ball club maybe a little better, and last time i checked .500 teams don't make the dance.

I expect them to progress some, but I'm thinking 5th or 6th in the sec and probably on the outside looking in come tournament time.
 
#71
#71
bleedingTNorange said:
Well I was counting the 2nd loss, neither you or I know be outcome had Releford and Steele been there, so a L is a L.

So they were 2-2 and beat us, which was one of our worst played games. Point being, missin both green and Mitchell they looked like a .500 ball club maybe a little better, and last time i checked .500 teams don't make the dance.

I expect them to progress some, but I'm thinking 5th or 6th in the sec and probably on the outside looking in come tournament time.
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Yes, teams who do "a little better" than .500 in conference make the tournament, as long as they did decently in out-of-conference play. Last time I checked, that's exactly what Alabama did this past season.

Also, I'm not completely throwing that LSU game out the window. But, when trying to predict next season, those other three games are much more indicative of what they'll be like next year. You can't say that the only reason Alabama beat Tennessee is because Tennessee played badly... Alabama's perimeter defense is what makes them good. Gueye will also improve a lot over the off-season. He's a 4* JUCO center who tore his ACL before the start of last season. His ceiling is enormous, and he and Jacobs should be ready to take over for Green.

They'll be in the tournament next year. I'll guarantee it; you can bump if I'm wrong.
 
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#72
#72
I was talking around .500 on the season. And probably around .500 in conference.

That won't e good enough for a tourney birth. As i said I'm not saying they're gonna suck if I had to predict, I'd say 17-15 (8-8). That wouldn't be good enough for a birth. If they go 19-13 (10-6) and go dancing ok, but I see them somewhere in that range.

I see them around the bubble, and IMO ending up on the outside looking in. Once again though, all these predictions are hard to do when we don't even have the SEC schedule yet.
 
#73
#73
I seriously doubt that their non-conference schedule will be so tough that they go 9-7. Not every team goes through what Tennessee went through this year (new coach, new starting five for the most part, mid-season addition).

Other than that, I guess I'll just agree to disagree. We'll see who's right next March. :eek:k:
 
#74
#74
GatorsGators said:
I seriously doubt that their non-conference schedule will be so tough that they go 9-7. Not every team goes through what Tennessee went through this year (new coach, new starting five for the most part, mid-season addition).

Other than that, I guess I'll just agree to disagree. We'll see who's right next March. :eek:k:
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As I said I see somewhere around 17-19 wins and around a .500 conference record, and outside of the bubble.

You see 20+ wins and 10+ conference wins and a solid seed?
 
#75
#75
bleedingTNorange said:
As I said I see somewhere around 17-19 wins and around a .500 conference record, and outside of the bubble.

You see 20+ wins and 10+ conference wins and a solid seed?
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Maybe not 10+ conference wins (unless we go to 18 games). How about: 10-6 SEC, 22-9 overall, #6 Seed.
 
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