Lunardi's latest: Vols one of last four in

#26
#26
TOP said:
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You and Gonzo.
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Because I'm stating the scenario of what it takes to make the dance I'm supporting Cuonzo? Wonderful reading comprehension you have, your parents must be very proud.
 
#27
#27
NYC Vol said:
I think we do in the regular season. There are no "acceptable" losses on our schedule. It's not just that we would finish 5-1. It's that the 1 loss, whoever it would be to, would be a bad loss. It's a double whammy.
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Since when is a loss to a top 40 RPI team a "bad loss"? News to me.
 
#28
#28
bleedingTNorange said:
You realize 4-2 would still be a winning record, right?

And no, it's not very close. 5-1 and they'd almost definitely be in. It would take an opening loss to a horrible RPI Sect to knock them out.
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Yes, but 4-2 puts them in a similar spot as last season, and that was the NIT. Regardless of if they get in or not, it shouldn't even be this close. This team has enough talent to finish third in the SEC and in the top 30 RPI.
 
#29
#29
gunner said:
Yes, but 4-2 puts them in a similar spot as last season, and that was the NIT.
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They had a chance to play themselves in last year, they blew it, that was my point. 4-2 doesn't make it where they have to win it all, depending on what seed we got, 2-3 SECT wins would be enough.

I deleted and won't address the other part because that conversation has been had.
 
#31
#31
Freak said:
I'm sure this has been posted, but I think it's thread-worthy. I'm as disappointed as anyone and I'm not sure this team can finish strong enough to make the dance, but as of this moment, Lunardi still has us in.

There is still hope and I'll be fighting with this team until the end, regardless of the poorly-coached head-scratching collapse I witnessed earlier.
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Freak you know I am a fan of yours but the chances of our school making the big dance is nil.
 
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#33
#33
bleedingTNorange said:
Missouri :thumbsup:
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Last I saw they were 47.

And let's put it this way, even if they are top 40 it's unacceptable. Because at that point it's a home loss to a team that we would have to beat for a "good win". And then Mizzou would beat us out for the 3rd spot in the tourney from the SEC.

Any way you slice it, any of the losses the rest of the way are unacceptable.
 
#34
#34
NYC Vol said:
I think we do in the regular season. There are no "acceptable" losses on our schedule. It's not just that we would finish 5-1. It's that the 1 loss, whoever it would be to, would be a bad loss. It's a double whammy.

Besides, we're sitting here talking about a 6-6 team possibly going 5-1 or 6-0 the rest of the way.
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I agree the best this team will finish down the stretch is 4-2, and that means NIT unless they make the SECCG.
 
#35
#35
Assuming the Vols lose 1 more, I don't think they get in unless they win at least once in the SEC tourney.
 
#36
#36
For about 4 years in a row all these ''experts'' have us as one of the last however many in and... We never end up getting in. And some of those teams seemed much better than this one. I'd bet the house we aren't going to be in the tournament
 
#37
#37
NYC Vol said:
Last I saw they were 47.

And let's put it this way, even if they are top 40 it's unacceptable. Because at that point it's a home loss to a team that we would have to beat for a "good win". And then Mizzou would beat us out for the 3rd spot in the tourney from the SEC.

Any way you slice it, any of the losses the rest of the way are unacceptable.
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I never said it was acceptable, we will be favored, but you said it would be a "bad loss", and it wouldn't.

Their RPI is up to 39 btw, could easily be top 30 by the time they get to Knoxville.
 
#39
#39
vols 30 said:
Assuming the Vols lose 1 more, I don't think they get in unless they win at least once in the SEC tourney.
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Probably accurate, depends on who the draw is. If it's Florida or Kentucky a loss would probably be ok, if it's a auburn or some lather bottom dweller would have to win.
 
#41
#41
chattavol420 said:
For about 4 years in a row all these ''experts'' have us as one of the last however many in and... We never end up getting in. And some of those teams seemed much better than this one. I'd bet the house we aren't going to be in the tournament
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3 years.

It's because the SECT losses knock us out and they never take that into contention because they don't know yet who we will play. That's why I am predicting we will need wins in the SECT to get in. Not necessarily because we need the wins but because we can't afford the loss to anyone not named Florida or Kentucky.

Also, another thing that's not factored in is conference tourney champs stealing at large spots.
 
#43
#43
bleedingTNorange said:
I never said it was acceptable, we will be favored, but you said it would be a "bad loss", and it wouldn't.

Their RPI is up to 39 btw, could easily be top 30 by the time they get to Knoxville.
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To me, unacceptable is a bad loss. And I didn't mean "bad loss" as in RPI nomenclature. I meant a loss that will kill our chances. Though losing to a top50 RPI team is not a bad loss, it is something that will kill our chances of making the tourney.

Any way you slice it, any of the losses will be a killer to our chances. How will the NCAA committee look at a final game loss at home to a team like Mizzou when the Vols have everything on the line. So yeah, bad loss.
 
#44
#44
NYC Vol said:
To me, unacceptable is a bad loss. And I didn't mean "bad loss" as in RPI nomenclature. I meant a loss that will kill our chances. Though losing to a top50 RPI team is not a bad loss, it is something that will kill our chances of making the tourney.

Any way you slice it, any of the losses will be a killer to our chances. How will the NCAA committee look at a final game loss at home to a team like Mizzou when the Vols have everything on the line. So yeah, bad loss.
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Well no loss is a good loss, every loss hurts your chances, so yea I guess every loss is a bad loss. I assumed you were talking in a little but less of a vague sense though, in which case it wouldn't be a bad loss or cripple our chances.

This team can afford another loss, it wouldn't be in their best interest, but they could lose at home to Missouri and still get in. Check out their RPI, and where they would be projected at, and then look at what the best RPIs to get left out have been.
 
#45
#45
Freak said:
I'm sure this has been posted, but I think it's thread-worthy. I'm as disappointed as anyone and I'm not sure this team can finish strong enough to make the dance, but as of this moment, Lunardi still has us in.

There is still hope and I'll be fighting with this team until the end, regardless of the poorly-coached head-scratching collapse I witnessed earlier.
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I think Lunardi is on drugs
 
#46
#46
bleedingTNorange said:
Well no loss is a good loss, every loss hurts your chances, so yea I guess every loss is a bad loss. I assumed you were talking in a little but less of a vague sense though, in which case it wouldn't be a bad loss or cripple our chances.

This team can afford another loss, it wouldn't be in their best interest, but they could lose at home to Missouri and still get in. Check out their RPI, and where they would be projected at, and then look at what the best RPIs to get left out have been.
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I just think people are putting way too much stock in the RPI. I think the committee uses it as a guiding number but if you look at our resume it's flat out terrible. If I didn't know our RPI and just guessed it based on our resume, I'd say we were around 90. We have one very good win and that's UVA. I think our next best win is against Xavier and I think they are an average team. So we have beaten 1 NCAA team and then a bubble team in Xavier. Another issue is we have 3 of our 10 losses to definite tourney teams. Maybe 2 of them are to teams that are bubble teams. We have 5 losses to teams that won't sniff the tourney.

Which is why I think that people using the RPI for guidance are fooling themselves. Our resume is atrocious. The only redeeming things on our resume is SOS (which is factored into RPI) and the W over UVA. Everything else is putrid.
 
#48
#48
NYC Vol said:
I just think people are putting way too much stock in the RPI. I think the committee uses it as a guiding number but if you look at our resume it's flat out terrible. If I didn't know our RPI and just guessed it based on our resume, I'd say we were around 90. We have one very good win and that's UVA. I think our next best win is against Xavier and I think they are an average team. So we have beaten 1 NCAA team and then a bubble team in Xavier. Another issue is we have 3 of our 10 losses to definite tourney teams. Maybe 2 of them are to teams that are bubble teams. We have 5 losses to teams that won't sniff the tourney.

Which is why I think that people using the RPI for guidance are fooling themselves. Our resume is atrocious. The only redeeming things on our resume is SOS (which is factored into RPI) and the W over UVA. Everything else is putrid.
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You can discount the RPI all you want, as I agree with you that it's got serious flaws.

However, you can't discount it's direct use by the committee and direct correlation to being in or out of the tournament.

Like I said, just go back and look since the field expanded to 68 what the high and low of RPI teams in/out were. If you are a high major and have a RPI inside of 50 you're gonna go dancing, it's almost guaranteed.
Add in that we have one of the best SOS in the country and that will help a lot come march as well.

Compare our resume to say Xavier, why are they all that more deserving than we our? With 68 teams the back end of the field has $hitty resumes, that's just the nature of it.
 
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