Lunardi's latest: Vols one of last four in

#53
#53
NYC Vol said:
I just think people are putting way too much stock in the RPI. I think the committee uses it as a guiding number but if you look at our resume it's flat out terrible. If I didn't know our RPI and just guessed it based on our resume, I'd say we were around 90. We have one very good win and that's UVA. I think our next best win is against Xavier and I think they are an average team. So we have beaten 1 NCAA team and then a bubble team in Xavier. Another issue is we have 3 of our 10 losses to definite tourney teams. Maybe 2 of them are to teams that are bubble teams. We have 5 losses to teams that won't sniff the tourney.

Which is why I think that people using the RPI for guidance are fooling themselves. Our resume is atrocious. The only redeeming things on our resume is SOS (which is factored into RPI) and the W over UVA. Everything else is putrid.
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While the RPI is garbage, it is used. Last year, MTSU had a good RPI, but their résumé wasn't good. They scheduled well, but they lost to all if their tough opponents. The thing that really helps UT is strength if schedule. The committee really rewards teams for scheduling tough games. The NC State game is one that we very well could have scheduled an easy win.
 
#54
#54
VolGee4 said:
While the RPI is garbage, it is used. Last year, MTSU had a good RPI, but their résumé wasn't good. They scheduled well, but they lost to all if their tough opponents. The thing that really helps UT is strength if schedule. The committee really rewards teams for scheduling tough games. The NC State game is one that we very well could have scheduled an easy win.
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And as NC St advances they may very well be the team that bumps us out of the tourney.
 
#55
#55
We are talking about a team that is 14-10 on the year, and losers of 6 out of their last 11. We play one more decent team, the rest are hot garbage. BTO may be right, we may get in. But it won't be for anything we actually accomplished on the court. It will take a complete lack of any other teams stepping up, resulting in such a horribly soft bubble that the tournament should seriously consider going back to 64 teams.
If we lose to Missouri at home, we won't have done anything worthy of getting in.
 
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#56
#56
bleedingTNorange said:
So you're adjusting it from they have to win out to have a chance, to they have to go 4-2 to have a chance?
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As long as there is a SEC Tourney they have a chance, but this team hasn't shown enough consistently to win it. If they keep on the current pace they will go 3-3 the rest of the regular season, and 1-1 in the SEC Tourney which spells NIT.
 
#57
#57
gunner said:
As long as there is a SEC Tourney they have a chance, but this team hasn't shown enough consistently to win it. If they keep on the current pace they will go 3-3 the rest of the regular season, and 1-1 in the SEC Tourney which spells NIT.
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I'm not talking about winning the SECT, three original statement was we had to win out the regular season to have a chance to make the NCAAT. Are you changing that to 4-2 and there's still a chance of playing our way on, without winning it all?
 
#58
#58
volgrad500 said:
We are talking about a team that is 14-10 on the year, and losers of 6 out of their last 11. We play one more decent team, the rest are hot garbage. BTO may be right, we may get in. But it won't be for anything we actually accomplished on the court. It will take a complete lack of any other teams stepping up, resulting in such a horribly soft bubble that the tournament should seriously consider going back to 64 teams.
If we lose to Missouri at home, we won't have done anything worthy of getting in.
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And I expect that to be a common post if we make it...."we didn't deserve it" "other teams were terrible" etc etc.

68 teams have to make it, the back end of that list is gonna be weaker resumes, just the way it works.
 
#59
#59
It's pretty simple. A month ago, I said 12 conference wins gets us in. That still applies. If we win out, we are in. If we go 5-1 we are probably in but on the bubble. If we go 4-2, we need to do something in the SECT. Now please don't take this as I think we will be in. We all know this team could lose to anybody. I just think this is the likely scenario.
 
#60
#60
VolGee4 said:
It's pretty simple. A month ago, I said 12 conference wins gets us in. That still applies. If we win out, we are in. If we go 5-1 we are probably in but on the bubble. If we go 4-2, we need to do something in the SECT. Now please don't take this as I think we will be in. We all know this team could lose to anybody. I just think this is the likely scenario.
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100% accurate
 
#61
#61
We may be in right now, but what about the bubble shrinking when there are conference tourny upsets? Or when we don't go undefeated down the stretch?

Bracketologists aren't projecting ahead. We need to.
 
#62
#62
bleedingTNorange said:
I'm not talking about winning the SECT, three original statement was we had to win out the regular season to have a chance to make the NCAAT. Are you changing that to 4-2 and there's still a chance of playing our way on, without winning it all?
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I said the Vols need to win out to get in, and that is true. 5-1 or 4-2 might get them in but I have very little confidence in UT getting a NCAA bid win only 19 wins in the regular season. This team has underachieved with as much talent as they have, they should be looking at 24 wins at the end of the regular season, and a solid seed in the tourney. But, we aren't. Just my humble opinion.
 
#63
#63
FalcoVol said:
We may be in right now, but what about the bubble shrinking when there are conference tourny upsets? Or when we don't go undefeated down the stretch?

Bracketologists aren't projecting ahead. We need to.
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There were 0 bids stolen last year iirc. There's usually at least 1 or 2. Ideally you wanna be one of the teams getting a bye, that leaves you some room for those upsets and such.
 
#64
#64
gunner said:
I said the Vols need to win out to get in, and that is true. 5-1 or 4-2 might get them in but I have very little confidence in UT getting a NCAA bid win only 19 wins in the regular season.
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I'm no math expert but 5-1 gives us 20 wins, no?
 
#65
#65
bleedingTNorange said:
Well no loss is a good loss, every loss hurts your chances, so yea I guess every loss is a bad loss. I assumed you were talking in a little but less of a vague sense though, in which case it wouldn't be a bad loss or cripple our chances.

This team can afford another loss, it wouldn't be in their best interest, but they could lose at home to Missouri and still get in. Check out their RPI, and where they would be projected at, and then look at what the best RPIs to get left out have been.
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If UT loses to Mizzou, you can kiss a NCAA bid goodbye. They would have a sweep over a bubble team and UT would need to win the SEC tourney to get in. I highly doubt the SEC gets more than 3 teams in the tourney. They don't deserve but two in reality.

Also, check Mizzou's remaining schedule. It's as soft as UT's schedule. I think the last bid will come down to UT or Mizzou. Ark, LSU and Ole Miss continue to look as bad as Mizzou and UT, but don't have the RPI or SOS.
 
#66
#66
bleedingTNorange said:
And paid the other 72 bracketologists, sounds logical.
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Bracketology is another word for useless over-coverage of NCAA basketball...unless they have 22 wins they are most likely out and how anyone thinks they know at this point is beyond me. Besides that- they really aren't that good and believe me I wish they were..but they just aren't
 
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#67
#67
OrangeBalls said:
If UT loses to Mizzou, you can kiss a NCAA bid goodbye. They would have a sweep over a bubble team and UT would need to win the SEC tourney to get in. I highly doubt the SEC gets more than 3 teams in the tourney. They don't deserve but two in reality.

Also, check Mizzou's remaining schedule. It's as soft as UT's schedule. I think the last bid will come down to UT or Mizzou. Ark, LSU and Ole Miss continue to look as bad as Mizzou and UT, but don't have the RPI or SOS.
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Now where does it state the sec is limited to 3 teams, if 4 teams have resumes better than other bubble teams then they'll get in. UT can go 5-1 and easily get in, saying otherwise is simply denying the facts. It's also saying that Tennessee will make history as the best RPI high major to get left out of the dance, with our SOS I see that as pretty unlikely.
 
#68
#68
driscokid said:
Bracketology is another word for useless over-coverage of NCAA basketball...unless they have 22 wins they are most likely out and how anyone thinks they know at this point is beyond me. Besides that- they really aren't that good and believe me I wish they were..but they just aren't
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22 wins?

Oh my lol.
 
#69
#69
bleedingTNorange said:
And I expect that to be a common post if we make it...."we didn't deserve it" "other teams were terrible" etc etc.

68 teams have to make it, the back end of that list is gonna be weaker resumes, just the way it works.
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Lol. That happens to be my opinion, which is every bit as valid as yours (probably more, given your obvious bias).
 
#70
#70
volgrad500 said:
Lol. That happens to be my opinion, which is every bit as valid as yours (probably more, given your obvious bias).
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I didn't say your opinion was wrong or anything...I'm just saying I expect that to be a common trend if the Vols do make the dance.

Every, Martin got Tennessee to the tournament will quickly be followed with 3 or 4, "yea but they didn't deserve to go".
 
#71
#71
No doubt this team has under achieved under Martin hopefully they can still win this last six make a huge run in the tourneys.
 
#72
#72
No team, sitting two games behind Georgia in the sec standings, is going to the NCAA tournament.

I also can't say enough how much reputation matters, no matter what they say.

The sec got three last year because ole miss won the tourney.

As of today, only 2 deserve to get in
 
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#73
#73
99gator said:
No team, sitting two games behind Georgia in the sec standings, is going to the NCAA tournament.

I also can't say enough how much reputation matters, no matter what they say.

The sec got three last year because ole miss won the tourney.

As of today, only 2 deserve to get
in
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Missouri would absolutely be in, as would Tennessee most likely. The SEC is glaring because that's the conference we are in, compare Missouri and Tennessee to other bubble teams and the picture becomes clearer.
 
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