Mark Ingram and RBs in the First Round

[volinexile17]

Every year a couple running backs are exciting enough to make the first round of the draft. Some recent names include Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Reggie Bush, and Darren McFadden. In 2011, most mocks consider Mark Ingram a lock for the Dolphins because of need at the position. This seems like a mistake to me.

I’m starting to think that RB represents a low value first round pick for NFL team for two reasons: 1) an ongoing shift in the game, 2) the availability of talented running backs.

First, The NFL has become increasingly pass oriented in the last 15 years. In 1996, nine quarterbacks threw for more than 3,000 yards, and only three surpassed 4,000. Last season, 22 QBs topped 3,000 yards and five cleared 4,000. Troy Aikman, golden boy of the 90s and HOFer, only threw 20+ TDs once in his career. Generally regarded as mediocre to bad QB, David Garrard threw 24 TDs last season – more than Aikman ever did in a single season.

Interestingly, the number of RBs gaining more than 1,000 yards has increased as has the number of RBs scoring more than 10 TDs. However, the number RBs getting 300+ carries dropped from 11 to 7 with only two making it to 330, a significant drop. As most serious fantasy football players know, the RB platoon is en vogue. Having two pay two players to fill one slot reduces value, not to mention the relatively short shelf life of RBs.

Second, the first round has supplied a number of elite RBs in recent years, but it has also supplied plenty of high cost generic RBs. A quick survey of the league reveals at least 5 teams – Bucs, Saints, Texans, Pats, and Packers – with undrafted RBs as starters. The Giants have a fourth rounder and a seventh rounder leading a top rushing attack. Marshawn Lynch was marginally better than 5th rounder Justin Forsett, and Beanie Wells hasn’t been able to beat out 5th rounder Tim Hightower. The Colts, Dolphins, and Panthers all have two former first round running backs each, and all are in need of a talented RB. Fifth rounder Michael Turner led the NFL in carries last season and undrafted Arian Foster led the league in yards and TDs. Peyton Hillis, a seventh rounder, carried the Browns offense.

This is clearly an abbreviated look at a handful of teams. But it seems to me that for every Adrian Peterson there is a Ced Benson or Jonathan Stewart. I’m not sure if the boom/bust ratio is any better at any other position, but, to me, the anecdotal evidence suggests the Dolphins, and just about every other team, should pass on Mark Ingram in the first round.

Opinions, VN?

 

[n_huffhines]

I dispute that the NFL is becoming more pass oriented. I just think passing is becoming more efficient and that there are more total plays.

Your passing stats don't really tell the whole story. Aikman only threw 20+ TD's once in his career because he wasn't very good at throwing TD's. Garard threw 23 last year on 366 attempts. Aikman threw more than 366 attempts 7 times in his career so he was getting enough attempts.

There were 13,199 rush attempts in 1995. There were 13,920 rush attempts last year. Passing attempts have increased as well from 16,669 in 1995 to 17,269 in 2010 (there are just more total plays per game these days).

 

[BloodRUNZOrange]

nice post. i agree. i think the NFL is VERY slow to change. i mean all the coaches are the same. they get fired one place and then get hired somewhere else. there is no infusion of different thinking. but i think will college football coaches going back and forth to the college ranks to the league i think it will be good for the nfl

 

[volinexile17]

I dispute that the NFL is becoming more pass oriented. I just think passing is becoming more efficient and that there are more total plays.

Your passing stats don't really tell the whole story. Aikman only threw 20+ TD's once in his career because he wasn't very good at throwing TD's. Garard threw 23 last year on 366 attempts. Aikman threw more than 366 attempts 7 times in his career so he was getting enough attempts.

There were 13,199 rush attempts in 1995. There were 13,920 rush attempts last year. Passing attempts have increased as well from 16,669 in 1995 to 17,269 in 2010 (there are just more total plays per game these days).

Interesting numbers. I think seeing the correlating total yardage numbers with those would be good too.

I don't have very specific memories of football from the mid 90s (or much else for that matter), but I do have general impressions.

Regardless of the small change in total attempts my impression is still that the NFL has become more pass oriented. The diffusion of spread formations is one example.

Another would refer back to Troy Aikman. You claim he just wasn't good at throwing TDs. I think that's ridiculous. Aikman is a HOFer and was considered an elite QB for a decade. Of course he was good at throwing TDs. Especially to an elite WR like Irvin. Passing in short yardage and goal line situations just seems more common to me now. It's a philosophical change.

And there are teams like the Pats and Saints that use the pass basically as a run. In the Pats record setting year, they virtually ignored the run for entire games. The Colts often do the same.

 

[n_huffhines]

Interesting numbers. I think seeing the correlating total yardage numbers with those would be good too.

I don't have very specific memories of football from the mid 90s (or much else for that matter), but I do have general impressions.

Regardless of the small change in total attempts my impression is still that the NFL has become more pass oriented. The diffusion of spread formations is one example.

Another would refer back to Troy Aikman. You claim he just wasn't good at throwing TDs. I think that's ridiculous. Aikman is a HOFer and was considered an elite QB for a decade. Of course he was good at throwing TDs. Especially to an elite WR like Irvin. Passing in short yardage and goal line situations just seems more common to me now. It's a philosophical change.

And there are teams like the Pats and Saints that use the pass basically as a run. In the Pats record setting year, they virtually ignored the run for entire games. The Colts often do the same.

Aikman was a HOFer, but it had nothing to do with his TD throwing ability. It was all about wins. In his 12 year career, Aikman finished top 9 in passing TD's once.

And yes, if RB was a need, I'd take Ingram in the first round.

 

[JTrainDavis]

I dispute that the NFL is becoming more pass oriented. I just think passing is becoming more efficient and that there are more total plays.

Your passing stats don't really tell the whole story. Aikman only threw 20+ TD's once in his career because he wasn't very good at throwing TD's. Garard threw 23 last year on 366 attempts. Aikman threw more than 366 attempts 7 times in his career so he was getting enough attempts.

There were 13,199 rush attempts in 1995. There were 13,920 rush attempts last year. Passing attempts have increased as well from 16,669 in 1995 to 17,269 in 2010 (there are just more total plays per game these days).

It seems to me you aren't looking at the whole picture, implying that Garrard is a better "TD Passer" than Aikman is cherry picking information.

 

[n_huffhines]

It seems to me you aren't looking at the whole picture, implying that Garrard is a better "TD Passer" than Aikman is cherry picking information.

I don't think that I implied that. I didn't cherry pick stats. I used TD and attempt stats from the years the OP chose. If the question was about careers then clearly Aikman is a better TD passer. My point was only that Aikman was not a stat machine so he's probably not a good representative QB of the 90s.

 

[VOLinthaNATI]

I dispute that the NFL is becoming more pass oriented. I just think passing is becoming more efficient and that there are more total plays.

Your passing stats don't really tell the whole story. Aikman only threw 20+ TD's once in his career because he wasn't very good at throwing TD's. Garard threw 23 last year on 366 attempts. Aikman threw more than 366 attempts 7 times in his career so he was getting enough attempts.

There were 13,199 rush attempts in 1995. There were 13,920 rush attempts last year. Passing attempts have increased as well from 16,669 in 1995 to 17,269 in 2010 (there are just more total plays per game these days).

I think this post is a huge steaming pile of garbage.

Why are there more plays? Surely, it's not because there are more passing plays leading to incompletions and clock stoppages.

Look at the 5 teams in the last 3 Super Bowls. Only 1, the Steelers would be considered a running team and the year they won it they ran for under 60 yards in the Super Bowl.

The Saints, Patriots, Colts, Chargers, and Packers have had awful running games the last few years yet they make the playoffs and win divisions.

The NFL is becoming more of a passing league. Period.

 

[justingroves]

Aikman was a HOFer, but it had nothing to do with his TD throwing ability. It was all about wins. In his 12 year career, Aikman finished top 9 in passing TD's once.

And yes, if RB was a need, I'd take Ingram in the first round.

Might have something to do with the Cowboys OL and Emmit being in the backfield.

Once Dallas got inside the 20, they pounded the ball.

 

[n_huffhines]

I think this post is a huge steaming pile of garbage.

Why are there more plays? Surely, it's not because there are more passing plays leading to incompletions and clock stoppages.

Look at the 5 teams in the last 3 Super Bowls. Only 1, the Steelers would be considered a running team and the year they won it they ran for under 60 yards in the Super Bowl.

The Saints, Patriots, Colts, Chargers, and Packers have had awful running games the last few years yet they make the playoffs and win divisions.

The NFL is becoming more of a passing league. Period.

You need to stick to the subject. It's not about what the best teams do, the conversation is about what the league is doing. I'm sure we could select a group of 5 good teams from the 90s that also had good passing games.

Your "passes stopping the clock" theory doesn't hold water. How do you explain more running plays?

 

[n_huffhines]

Might have something to do with the Cowboys OL and Emmit being in the backfield.

Once Dallas got inside the 20, they pounded the ball.

Yeah, I'd say you have a point about that in '92, '94, and '95 but the other 5 years of Aikman's prime Emmitt scored 12 TD's or less.

 

[Vols45]

All arrows point towards Ingram going to South Beach. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan Williams go to Green Bay at the end of the first round. A bell cow back is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

 

[VOLinthaNATI]

You need to stick to the subject. It's not about what the best teams do, the conversation is about what the league is doing. I'm sure we could select a group of 5 good teams from the 90s that also had good passing games.

Your "passes stopping the clock" theory doesn't hold water. How do you explain more running plays?

What the hell are you talking about? What does my last sentence say? The league is becoming more of an overall passing league. That's why you see DE's and DT's going at the top of the draft more and RB's going lower and lower. Not that difficult to figure out.

If there are more overall plays then it would seem also likely that there would be an increase in passing and running plays. Do you intentionally try to act clueless?

 

[n_huffhines]

What the hell are you talking about? What does my last sentence say? The league is becoming more of an overall passing league. That's why you see DE's and DT's going at the top of the draft more and RB's going lower and lower. Not that difficult to figure out.

If there are more overall plays then it would seem also likely that there would be an increase in passing and running plays. Do you intentionally try to act clueless?

I'd say DT's being drafted high is proof that the run game is still as important as ever. Running backs aren't going as high because most teams run a 2-back system.

You should go back and read everything I said and if this is still the point you want to make then you are retarded.

 

[VOLinthaNATI]

Unreal...

 

[justingroves]

I'd say DT's being drafted high is proof that the run game is still as important as ever. Running backs aren't going as high because most teams run a 2-back system.

You should go back and read everything I said and if this is still the point you want to make then you are retarded.

Not necessarily.

You have a DT that commands a double team than the DEs are one on one.

 

[justingroves]

Yeah, I'd say you have a point about that in '92, '94, and '95 but the other 5 years of Aikman's prime Emmitt scored 12 TD's or less.

So Dallas didn't have a high scoring offense those years?

That doesn't really dispute the fact that Aikman didn't have to do too much in the redzone.

 

[n_huffhines]

So Dallas didn't have a high scoring offense those years?

That doesn't really dispute the fact that Aikman didn't have to do too much in the redzone.

I don't really get your point.

To put this in perspective (because Manning IS an effective TD passer), Manning's played on 7 teams that rushed for 15+ TD's and he got 26+ passing TD's every one of those seasons.

Manning hasn't had a kicker attempt 30 since 2003. He was getting his team in the endzone. Aikman's kicker was attempting 30-39 FG's nearly every year. Any way you wanna look at it, Aikman wasn't throwing TD's and he had opportunities.

 

[justingroves]

I don't really get your point.

To put this in perspective (because Manning IS an effective TD passer), Manning's played on 7 teams that rushed for 15+ TD's and he got 26+ passing TD's every one of those seasons.

Manning hasn't had a kicker attempt 30 since 2003. He was getting his team in the endzone. Aikman's kicker was attempting 30-39 FG's nearly every year. Any way you wanna look at it, Aikman wasn't throwing TD's and he had opportunities.

Because he wasn't asked to.

The Cowboys weren't going to risk a TO when Aikman could hand the ball off to Emmit or get the FG and watch a dominate D take control of the game.

 

[VOLinthaNATI]

I've got to ask this. Since you keep touting that there are more plays in the games now OP, what do you think the reason for that is? This should be good.

 

[n_huffhines]

I've got to ask this. Since you keep touting that there are more plays in the games now OP, what do you think the reason for that is? This should be good.

I think you are addressing me, I am not the OP.

It could be a number of reasons. Teams are scoring in less plays. Teams don't use as much of the play clock. Maybe increases in penalties. Replay.

This is all a tangent. The OP said the NFL is becoming increasingly pass oriented and he pointed out that there are more passing TD's and Yards (this is because pass attempts have increased). There are also more rushing attempts because there are more total plays. Why there are more plays is beside the point. In the past 15 years the NFL has not become more pass oriented relative to the run. That's the point.

Are you disputing that there are more total plays?

 

[justingroves]

I think you are addressing me, I am not the OP.

It could be a number of reasons. Teams are scoring in less plays. Teams don't use as much of the play clock. Maybe increases in penalties. Replay.

This is all a tangent. The OP said the NFL is becoming increasingly pass oriented and he pointed out that there are more passing TD's and Yards (this is because pass attempts have increased). There are also more rushing attempts because there are more total plays. Why there are more plays is beside the point. In the past 15 years the NFL has not become more pass oriented relative to the run. That's the point.

Are you disputing that there are more total plays?

You do realize the clock stops on incomplete passes don't you?

It's also pretty easy to say the league is more of a passing league when you have multiple QBs throwing for over 3,000 yards and 20+ TDs.

Those used to be Run n Shoot or Dan Marino numbers. Now, it's a common occurrence.

 

[n_huffhines]

Because he wasn't asked to.

The Cowboys weren't going to risk a TO when Aikman could hand the ball off to Emmit or get the FG and watch a dominate D take control of the game.

So you are saying it's not that he wasn't good at throwing TD's it's that we was bad about throwing INT's?

165 TD's and 141 INT's

 

[justingroves]

So you are saying it's not that he wasn't good at throwing TD's it's that we was bad about throwing INT's?

165 TD's and 141 INT's

Which is exactly why they weren't asking him to throw inside the redzone inflating his numbers.

 

[VOLinthaNATI]

I think you are addressing me, I am not the OP.

It could be a number of reasons. Teams are scoring in less plays. Teams don't use as much of the play clock. Maybe increases in penalties. Replay.

This is all a tangent. The OP said the NFL is becoming increasingly pass oriented and he pointed out that there are more passing TD's and Yards (this is because pass attempts have increased). There are also more rushing attempts because there are more total plays. Why there are more plays is beside the point. In the past 15 years the NFL has not become more pass oriented relative to the run. That's the point.

Are you disputing that there are more total plays?

No I'm telling you that the NFL is becoming more of a passing league. You don't have to agree and you can come up with all these dumb points but it doesn't change anything. It's becoming a passing league and 90% of people who have a clue would agree.