Mark Ingram and RBs in the First Round

[n_huffhines]

You do realize the clock stops on incomplete passes don't you?

It's also pretty easy to say the league is more of a passing league when you have multiple QBs throwing for over 3,000 yards and 20+ TDs.

Those used to be Run n Shoot or Dan Marino numbers. Now, it's a common occurrence.

Yes, the clock stops after incomplete passes. Does the clock stop after the 600 extra rushing plays too? That doesn't jive. Just because the clock stops on some of the passes doesn't mean you automatically have more time for a lot more running (600 more) and passing plays. That can't explain why there are more running plays.

But how can you say it's more of a passing league when at the same time it's more of a rushing league? Maybe say it's more offensive oriented. But saying it's more passing oriented makes it sound like the run is diminished, when the run has a stronger presence than it did 15 years ago.

 

[n_huffhines]

Sorry, not 600, but 721 (increase in rush attempts comparing 1995 and 2010).

 

[n_huffhines]

Rush Attempts from 1994 to 2010

12550
13199
13594
13639
13568
13548
13677
13666
14102
14508
14428
14375
14447
13986
14119
14088
13920

Now if you can look at this and with a straight face tell me that the league has become more pass oriented in the last 15 or so years, I've got nothing to say to you.

 

[VOLinthaNATI]

You're like arguing with ksush about laptops...

What the hell does that last 15 years have to do with the fact that in the last 3-4 years the league is becoming more pass oriented? Your rushing numbers prove it yet you keep trying to refute it. It's absolutely hilarious...

 

[n_huffhines]

You're like arguing with ksush about laptops...

What the hell does that last 15 years have to do with the fact that in the last 3-4 years the league is becoming more pass oriented? Your rushing numbers prove it yet you keep trying to refute it. It's absolutely hilarious...

Well if you had any ability to stay on topic...

The OP said,

first, the nfl has become increasingly pass oriented in the last 15 years. in 1996, nine quarterbacks threw for more than 3,000 yards, and only three surpassed 4,000. Last season, 22 qbs topped 3,000 yards and five cleared 4,000. Troy aikman, golden boy of the 90s and hofer, only threw 20+ tds once in his career. Generally regarded as mediocre to bad qb, david garrard threw 24 tds last season – more than aikman ever did in a single season.

 

[VOLinthaNATI]

:lol:

 

[n_huffhines]

You're like arguing with ksush about laptops...

What the hell does that last 15 years have to do with the fact that in the last 3-4 years the league is becoming more pass oriented? Your rushing numbers prove it yet you keep trying to refute it. It's absolutely hilarious...

Are you sure about that fact? Passing attempts from 2007 to 2010

17045
16526
17033
17269

 

[volinexile17]

Running backs likely will be scarce in 2011 NFL Draft first round - Don Banks - SI.com

SI writer makes the same argument that I made.

 

[volinexile17]

Mikel Leshoure gaining on Mark Ingram to be first RB drafted - Peter King - SI.com

Peter King writes that Mikel Leshoure of Illinois could overtake Ingram as the first, and possibly only, RB taken in this year's draft. Concerns about Ingram's knee have some teams worried.

 

[TrueOrange]

i assume you mean first and only first round drafted running back

...for some 200+ picks to pass and only 1 be a RB? not happening

 

[volinexile17]

i assume you mean first and only first round drafted running back

...for some 200+ picks to pass and only 1 be a RB? not happening

Of course.

 

[govols182]

Rush Attempts from 1994 to 2010

12550
13199
13594
13639
13568
13548
13677
13666
14102
14508
14428
14375
14447
13986
14119
14088
13920

Now if you can look at this and with a straight face tell me that the league has become more pass oriented in the last 15 or so years, I've got nothing to say to you.

Going off of your 721 number, you do realize that that's about 1.5 more carries a game per team right?

 

[n_huffhines]

Going off of your 721 number, you do realize that that's about 1.5 more carries a game per team right?

Yes, I realize that. The difference in pass attempts those same 2 seasons is only 1.11 more attempts a game per team. So my point is still backed up.

 

[govols182]

Yes, I realize that. The difference in pass attempts those same 2 seasons is only 1.11 more attempts a game per team. So my point is still backed up.

From 2007-2010?

If that's what you're talking abut then you aren't being completely fair with your statistics, since one is from 1994 and the other starts 13 years later.

 

[TrueOrange]

Rush Attempts from 1994 to 2010

12550 -94 (28 teams)
13199 -95 (Two teams added; 30 teams)
13594 -96
13639 -97
13568 -98
13548 -99 (1 team added; 31 teams)
13677 -00
13666 -01
14102 -02 (1 team added; 32 teams)
14508 -03
14428 -04
14375 -05
14447 -06
13986 -07
14119 -08
14088 -09
13920 -10

Now if you can look at this and with a straight face tell me that the league has become more pass oriented in the last 15 or so years, I've got nothing to say to you.

Going off of your 721 number, you do realize that that's about 1.5 more carries a game per team right?

Yes, I realize that. The difference in pass attempts those same 2 seasons is only 1.11 more attempts a game per team. So my point is still backed up.

Also worth noting in all this is how the number of NFL teams have increased in this time period; jump from 28 to 32 now




Perhaps a better comparison though regarding this issue would be to look at total yards passing v total yards rushing (used as a linear percentage comparison standpoint) or - to a lesser extent - total scoring passing v rushing

 

[n_huffhines]

From 2007-2010?

If that's what you're talking abut then you aren't being completely fair with your statistics, since one is from 1994 and the other starts 13 years later.

No, I was comparing 1995 to 2010, as you did with the rushing attempts*.

TrueOrange: Good point about 30 teams in 1995. I forgot to factor that in. It doesn't change things because I forgot to factor that in for both rushing and passing.

*That's where the 721 number came from. The difference between 2010 and 1995.

 

[n_huffhines]

Perhaps a better comparison though regarding this issue would be to look at total yards passing v total yards rushing or - to a lesser extent - total scoring passing v rushing

Yeah, but those stats may just tell you how good pass D is or how good rush D is in a given year. Going off attempts let's you know what the offense is trying to do and what they think is beneficial. If we are trying to determine the importance of run vs pass, I think attempts is the way to go.

 

[TrueOrange]

i still think it would be an interesting followup to compare percentage-wise total passing and total rushing yards between seasons

(more so for actual production values and trends...what's working, how more effectively, etc)

(typed this before your response)

the numbers though do seem to suggest a (perhaps significant - the data would have to be further tested) decrease in rushing attempts from 06 on....looking like in the 400-500 total range each year compared to that 06 number;

the jump back following 07's single did (08&09) don't quite reach back up to those 02-06 numbers either (falling short about 300-400 attempts, clearly rounded)

 

[TrueOrange]

Yeah, but those stats may just tell you how good pass D is or how good rush D is in a given year. Going off attempts let's you know what the offense is trying to do and what they think is beneficial. If we are trying to determine the importance of run vs pass, I think attempts is the way to go.

well to a degree.

you'd also be looking at how precentage of production has changed. (Some good team rush or pass D's in a given year should be balanced out by the sample size being all 32 teams)

while attempts do show a bit more what teams are trying to do, they are also a bit skewed.

Looking at the changing percentages (like seeing say, that passing has stayed at around i dunno 63% of the entire league's entire offensive performance or that rushing has decreased from 45% to 41%) possibly would likely better indicate trending,

(on some big part, also play-calling does come from how successful the production that occurs on the field is, even year to year with teams; this could remove some of the things that get tied up in just using attempts: like spikes, kneels, throwaways, fumbled exchanges, etc)



But also, in reality, more pass-oriented or rush-oriented wouldn’t just mean a type of play getting called more, but rather/also what’s become more successfully used
(really it involves multiple aspects of both)

 

[Vol423]

Every Troy Aikman, golden boy of the 90s and HOFer, only threw 20+ TDs once in his career.

Golden boy? Troy Aikman was never considered to be among the elite quarterbacks of his time. He made the Hall of Fame (a decision that I strongly disagree with) because he was on a great team. He was an extremely average QB.

 

[Vol423]

I’m not sure if the boom/bust ratio is any better at any other position, but, to me, the anecdotal evidence suggests the Dolphins, and just about every other team, should pass on Mark Ingram in the first round.

Opinions, VN?

I see Mark Ingram being in the Emmitt Smith mold. I would draft him highly in the first round and never look back.

 

[Vol423]

Aikman only threw 20+ TD's once in his career because he wasn't very good at throwing TD's.

While I think Aikman is monumentally overrated, the fact that his team had the best rushing attack in the league and had a great defense (and, therefore, was also rarely trailing in games) had FAR more to do with his lack of TD passes than the fact that "he wasn't very good at throwing TD's."

 

[Vol423]

Yes, the clock stops after incomplete passes. Does the clock stop after the 600 extra rushing plays too? That doesn't jive. Just because the clock stops on some of the passes doesn't mean you automatically have more time for a lot more running (600 more) and passing plays. That can't explain why there are more running plays.

But how can you say it's more of a passing league when at the same time it's more of a rushing league? Maybe say it's more offensive oriented. But saying it's more passing oriented makes it sound like the run is diminished, when the run has a stronger presence than it did 15 years ago.

Did you guys actually live through the 80's and 90's? For anybody that did, the answer for this phenomenon is obvious. The reason that the NFL is more of a passing league now (and it IS) is that the league doesn't let defensive backs mug the wide receivers anymore like they did in the 80's and early 90's.

 

[Vol423]

Rush Attempts from 1994 to 2010

12550
13199
13594
13639
13568
13548
13677
13666
14102
14508
14428
14375
14447
13986
14119
14088
13920

Now if you can look at this and with a straight face tell me that the league has become more pass oriented in the last 15 or so years, I've got nothing to say to you.

Attempts don't mean squat. Look at the trend of total rushing yards over time and then the trend of total passing yards over time. Yards are more important than attempts when arguing whether or not the league has become more pass-oriented (and it has).

 

[n_huffhines]

Golden boy? Troy Aikman was never considered to be among the elite quarterbacks of his time. He made the Hall of Fame (a decision that I strongly disagree with) because he was on a great team. He was an extremely average QB.

He was much better than average, but still overrated.