Smallvol#1
MarchMatters
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So one of the projections I've seen is that they might get the Fiesta Bowl. But their opponent would be 9-3 LSU. Not a bad matchup in and of itself, but that sounds like a matchup better suited to the Peach Bowl or Sugar Bowl, or if they both where not hosting semifinal games, I'd say the Orange or Cotton Bowls.
It’s a bit of a conundrum.
While the Peach Bowl would certainly be a closer location, as far as the travel distance for the fans, the people in charge likely don’t want to give the Peach Bowl any perceived burden/inequity of having to host the game featuring a non-Power 5 participant and fan base for two straight seasons.
Meanwhile, the rankings will likely place Florida, Michigan, and LSU as the other eligible participants for the Peach and Fiesta Bowl spots, and LSU and UF won’t be paired together as they already played this season...and bowl location would seem to suggest that Florida would end up in the much closer Peach Bowl.
Either way, this pretty much leaves the question of where Michigan, and it could serve as the main determinant. Would the fact the UF and Michigan just played each other last year be enough to prevent the bowl matchup and make the Peach Bowl willing to take the AAC UCF two years in a row? Or would it repeatedly having set attendance records for the Citrus Bowl after 2016 dissuade that enough?
Personally, LSU-Michigan would be the best of those possible matchups here, but we’ll see if we get that this season.
(Note: the Sugar Bowl’s contract has to be highest ranked available SEC team vs Big 12 team.)
If it wasn't a semifinal site, UCF would and either an SEC or Big 12 team would probably make a respectable Cotton Bowl matchup.
I don't mind the Rose, Sugar, and Orange Bowls keeping to their historic tie ins for the most part, but depending on how a season or various teams would do, I wouldn't mind seeing them have the option to occasionally take at at-large team, be it the Group of 5 team like UCF or Boise State, other Power 5 teams or whoever. I wouldn't send UCF out west in such a scenario, but the Sugar or more possibly the Orange Bowl as an option wouldn't be bad. Or just as a hypothetical example, if Boise State where to ever engineer another perfect season, I wouldn't be unopposed to seeing them land a Rose Bowl bid.
Possibly. It does pretty much rotate between the Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach bowls as far as who has to take the non-power 5 team any given year.