Mitt - Can he win against Obama?

[Lexvol]

I expect the Dems to kick up the speculation blame game for gas as well, putting the blame on "nameless, faceless" wall streeters. To me it seems like it's already picking up again (if I recall speculation caught a lot of heat during 2008, which some have speculated that the combo of Bush's proposal's for more exploration and a house bill proposed against gas speculation resulted in the drop).

Will be difficult...if not impossible to do this time around..if the prices stay where they are.

 

[n_huffhines]

I agree, but it will be nearly impossible to convey to the general public. The conventional media isn't going to touch it.

So is LG part of the general public who doesn't get it, or is he just spinning?

 

[Lexvol]

So is LG part of the general public who doesn't get it, or is he just spinning?

He is just trying to piss you off. LG is a closet libertarian.

 

[rjd970]

I got a feeling when it is all said a done Romney beats Obama with the independent voters and wins the general election. I think Romney is doing just enough now to not lose the nomination, and will pull out all the punches when the general election takes hold.

 

[Lexvol]

I got a feeling when it is all said a done Romney beats Obama with the independent voters and wins the general election. I think Romney is doing just enough now to not lose the nomination, and will pull out all the punches when the general election takes hold.

I think there is real trepidation about Obamacare among the real independents out there.

 

[Weezy]

Will be difficult...if not impossible to do this time around..if the prices stay where they are.

Just googled news for "speculators gas." Looks like it's already started. I'm not arguing whether it will work or not. I will take a sit back and watch approach.

 

[Lexvol]

Just googled news for "speculators gas." Looks like it's already started. I'm not arguing whether it will work or not. I will take a sit back and watch approach.

It is worth a try.

 

[GAVol]

It is worth a try.

Sure it is. And I have to say that I've never seen an administration so adept at setting up a political bogeyman to deflect blame to in my life. Whether it's Wall Street, corporations, rich people, Congress . . . Obama manages to always portray himself like Tom Hanks in Castaway - a guy dropped out of the sky from nowhere to deal with circumstances he never creates.

 

[SandoVOL]

Ill be writing in for the 3rd time, grrr

 

[Lexvol]

Sure it is. And I have to say that I've never seen an administration so adept at setting up a political bogeyman to deflect blame to in my life. Whether it's Wall Street, corporations, rich people, Congress . . . Obama manages to always portray himself like Tom Hanks in Castaway - a guy dropped out of the sky from nowhere to deal with circumstances he never creates.

This is what makes me feel like a tin foil hat guy. The media treats him with kid gloves. If they didn't this strategy simply wouldn't work indefinitely.

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

The reason gas prices are high and will go higher is b/c gas/oil is a global commodity. Refiners in Europe and Asia are buying crude at Brent prices ($120 a barrel) and using $12 NatGas to refine it. US refineries are buying Bakken crude which is at $100 and is better oil than Brent and using $2.50 NatGas to refine it

East Coast refineries such as Sunoco don't have access to Bakken Crude and are shutting down b/c they are not profitable buying/refining Brent Crude

 

[Weezy]

The reason gas prices are high and will go higher is b/c gas/oil is a global commodity. Refiners in Europe and Asia are buying crude at Brent prices ($120 a barrel) and using $12 NatGas to refine it. US refineries are buying Bakken crude which is at $100 and is better oil than Brent and using $2.50 NatGas to refine it

East Coast refineries such as Sunoco don't have access to Bakken Crude and are shutting down b/c they are not profitable buying/refining Brent Crude

So is there a bottle neck at the refinery side, but isn't $100 per barrel expensive as well and has little to do with refining capacity? I personally think it's a complex market that I don't understand so I avoid making judgment, but I do think speculation plays a part (although probably too small for me to consider when choosing political leaders).

Consider that light, sweet crude trading on the NYMEX changed hands at $79.20 a barrel four months ago but soared past $105 a barrel Tuesday, partly on news that Iran would halt shipment of oil to Britain and France. The problem: Those countries already had stopped buying Iranian oil. And Didier Houssin, the International Energy Agency's director for energy markets and security, noted a Wall Street Journal report that "there are alternative supplies that can make up for any loss of Iranian exports."

Still, oil prices shot up because crude trades in financial markets, where Wall Street firms and other big financial players dominate trading, even though they have no intention of taking possession of the oil.

Because oil prices are the biggest component in gasoline prices, pump prices are soaring. AAA on Tuesday said the nationwide average price for gasoline was $3.57, compared with $3.38 a month ago and $3.17 a year ago. It takes about $6 more to fill up the tank than it did this time last year.

Defining what percentage of today's high oil and gasoline prices is due to excessive speculation, driven by Iran fears, is something of a guessing game.

"I put the Iran security premium at about $8 to $10 (a barrel) at this point, which still puts crude at about $90 or $95," said John Kilduff, a veteran energy analyst at AgainCapital in New York.

The fear premium is the froth above what prices would be absent fears of a supply disruption — somewhere in the $80 to $85 range for a barrel of oil. Even with the inflated cost from Iran fears, prices are at least $10 more than what demand fundamentals would dictate.

Why? Financial speculators.

What would the price of oil be if left to conventional supply-and-demand fundamentals? Canada is the largest supplier of imported oil to the United States, which produces more than half the oil it consumes. Production and delivery costs for a barrel of Canadian oil are about $75 a barrel. The market-fundamentals cost for a barrel is in that ballpark; above that, speculation sets the prices.

...

Financial speculators historically accounted for about 30 percent of oil trading in commodity markets; producers and end users made up about 70 percent. Today, it's almost the reverse.

A review of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates oil trading, shows producers and merchants made up 36 percent and speculators 64 percent of all contracts traded in the week ending Feb. 14.

Not surprisingly, big Wall Street traders Tuesday projected oil will exceed $112 a barrel; some, such as Swiss giant Vitol, even suggested $150-a-barrel oil is coming. When they dominate the market, speculators' bids can make their prophecies self-fulfilling.

Nation & World | Speculators blamed for rising oil, gas prices | Seattle Times Newspaper

 

[lawgator1]

I expect the Dems to kick up the speculation blame game for gas as well, putting the blame on "nameless, faceless" wall streeters. To me it seems like it's already picking up again (if I recall speculation caught a lot of heat during 2008, which some have speculated that the combo of Bush's proposal's for more exploration and a house bill proposed against gas speculation resulted in the drop).

The impact of speculators is interesting.

On the one hand, there is some damn good reason to speculate. A) The US economy is growing and demand is up in the far east. B) If Israel bombed Iran and only took out the nuclear facility, leaving Iran's military relatively intact, it would take minutes for the price of a barrel of oil to double. Even if it turned out that things were quickly wrapped up, there would be a period of time where the price of oil would skyrocket.

So can't blame them.

On the other hand, some of the speculation is really speculation on speculation. That is, betting that others are going to bet on the price going up. Those people feed the rumors and the discontent, simply hoping that it causes others to want to speculate.

I view investors acting on the former legitimate, the latter I want to hurt. Funny thing is, neither is really wrong.

I got a feeling when it is all said a done Romney beats Obama with the independent voters and wins the general election. I think Romney is doing just enough now to not lose the nomination, and will pull out all the punches when the general election takes hold.

Problem with that theory is that polls show Romney is in pretty bad shape amongst independents. If Obama just holds his own there and the base of the GOP has even slightly lower than full turnout based on lack of enthusiasm, them Obama probably wins.

 

[PowerT83]

Yes he can. Maybe there is a better reason, but I think the main reason he will win is because no one likes the guy he is running against.


It seems like people are making a big deal about how rich he is, correct me if i'm wrong but I don't believe there has ever been a poor man win POTUS.

 

[GAVol]

I don't think there are very many people at all that can honestly explain the price of gas. That's why it's such a tough issue for whoever is in office.

 

[lawgator1]

Yes he can. Maybe there is a better reason, but I think the main reason he will win is because no one likes the guy he is running against.


It seems like people are making a big deal about how rich he is, correct me if i'm wrong but I don't believe there has ever been a poor man win POTUS.

Well, first, there is well off or even rich, and then there is Romney-rich. You'll notice he hasn't released more tax records. I guarantee you the Obama team is geared up to go to town on him on this issue.

More significant is Romney's constant tone-deaf way of handling the issue. He gets asked about NASCAR and his response is that he knows some team owners? Sheesz!

Romney is super rich and a largely out of touch with the middle class and their worries. To his credit he hasn't made some lame attempt to paint himself as a truck driver, farmer, ranch guy, common drinking buddy, etc.

He was born elite, and has become super uber elite. It is going to hurt him with some voters, there's just no way around that.

Put it this way, the people who would vote for Romney because he is super rich is tiny, and they'd have voted for him anyway. But some people are going to resent his role in business and the disconnect he has repeatedly shown with them because of it. That is a large and diffuse group, hard to pin down and rebut.

 

[n_huffhines]

I don't think there are very many people at all that can honestly explain the price of gas. That's why it's such a tough issue for whoever is in office.

I don't think anybody can explain the price of anything outside of "supply and demand". Obviously we have OPEC trying to set prices, and we have huge taxes thrown on top of that at the pump, but in reality, gas prices are about what they were 40 years ago in real dollars. It's just that we are devaluing our money.

 

[volinbham]

I expect the Dems to kick up the speculation blame game for gas as well, putting the blame on "nameless, faceless" wall streeters. To me it seems like it's already picking up again (if I recall speculation caught a lot of heat during 2008, which some have speculated that the combo of Bush's proposal's for more exploration and a house bill proposed against gas speculation resulted in the drop).

It was part of the press conf. yesterday. Holder is "investigating" speculators (even though there is no silver bullet oddly enough).

He began by talking about more mortgage relief programs and they were all in the context of banker misdeeds/illegalities. It was pretty amazing to hear that every bit of the fault was not only greed by bankers but also actual fraud.

The evil rich and big corporations are the source of all our problems.

 

[bamawriter]

Well, first, there is well off or even rich, and then there is Romney-rich. You'll notice he hasn't released more tax records. I guarantee you the Obama team is geared up to go to town on him on this issue.

That's going to hurt Obama more than it hurts Romney. There is a certain point when people are going to wonder why they should hate on Romney for being successful.

 

[volinbham]

Sure it is. And I have to say that I've never seen an administration so adept at setting up a political bogeyman to deflect blame to in my life. Whether it's Wall Street, corporations, rich people, Congress . . . Obama manages to always portray himself like Tom Hanks in Castaway - a guy dropped out of the sky from nowhere to deal with circumstances he never creates.

You forgot greedy doctors doing unnecessary tonsillectomies and such. and of course mortgage lenders that pressured/deceived and committed fraud.

 

[volinbham]

This is what makes me feel like a tin foil hat guy. The media treats him with kid gloves. If they didn't this strategy simply wouldn't work indefinitely.

It really is surrealistic particularly when you add that virtually no comedians/shows mock him at all.

 

[lawgator1]

That's going to hurt Obama more than it hurts Romney. There is a certain point when people are going to wonder why they should hate on Romney for being successful.

Obama team has made clear that its not envy of his success, or the success of other super rich folks, at issue.

Its the access that success gives them to politicians, who they then lobby and contribute to in order to secure tax breaks that hide, shield, or even create more wealth for them.

Few people would vote against him simply because he is rich. But many would if they thought his paying millions and millions less in taxes every year than he should is because the system has been manipulated so that he can.

 

[Gramps]

I think it's way too early to perdict the election.
A lot of things can happen between now and election day.
If Romney does with the nomination, I believe he will have to make a very good VP pick in order to win the general.

I will perdict the general election for POTUS in 2012 will be the nastiest election in history. It will be ugly. We are going to see 2 billion dollars worth of negativity.

 

[volinbham]

Obama team has made clear that its not envy of his success, or the success of other super rich folks, at issue.

Its the access that success gives them to politicians, who they then lobby and contribute to in order to secure tax breaks that hide, shield, or even create more wealth for them.

Few people would vote against him simply because he is rich. But many would if they thought his paying millions and millions less in taxes every year than he should is because the system has been manipulated so that he can.

I don't think they've made it clear enough on the first point and they are equal opportunity abusers of the access point.

It's rhetoric that may be effective but its cynical as hell.

 

[volinbham]

I think it's way too early to perdict the election.
A lot of things can happen between now and election day.
If Romney does with the nomination, I believe he will have to make a very good VP pick in order to win the general.

I will perdict the general election for POTUS in 2012 will be the nastiest election in history. It will be ugly. We are going to see 2 billion dollars worth of negativity.

Totally agree on the last part and we are all going to be losers for it.