Most over and under rated college football teams of last 10 years.

[Godfatha]

I'll add Kansas and Kansas State on the under.

 

[Godfatha]

Also its the past 10 years, so there's a lot of recency bias for me(I can only really remember the last 3-4 at best).

Same here. It's hard for me to remember who was good 3+ years ago (outside the usual suspects Georgia, Bama, Clemson, Ohio State)

Since it's the last ten years, I'm going to say Michigan on the over.

 

[Rifleman]

Also its the past 10 years, so there's a lot of recency bias for me(I can only really remember the last 3-4 at best).

Anything past a few years is like those maps of rarely seen lands from ancient times for me, just a vague formless fog.

Except on my football map instead of "Here be Dragons" it just says "Mark Richt has Lost Control".

 

[05_never_again]

Not listing ones already mentioned.

As much as I hate to say it, I'd say Missouri on the under. Washington on the under.

Oklahoma the last few years on the over. Miami on the over. This is a stab, because I can't remember how they rank preseason, but Kentucky on the over.

I don't like saying this because I find Drinkwitz to be quite obnoxious, but Missouri is probably the most unfairly crapped on program of the last 10-12 years. Our own fans do it a lot.

Since entering the SEC, they are 47-51 in conference play with 2 SEC East titles. That is the 3rd best winning % in what used to be the SEC East, behind only UGA and UF. I remember there being a lot of "Mizzou is going to be another Vandy" predictions when they entered, and they've been a lot better as a member of the SEC than people think they have.

 

[McDad]

I'll add Kansas and Kansas State on the under.

Kan state 15

 

[Godfatha]

I don't like saying this because I find Drinkwitz to be quite obnoxious, but Missouri is probably the most unfairly crapped on program of the last 10-12 years. Our own fans do it a lot.

Since entering the SEC, they are 47-51 in conference play with 2 SEC East titles. That is the 3rd best winning % in what used to be the SEC East, behind only UGA and UF. I remember there being a lot of "Mizzou is going to be the next Vandy" predictions when they entered.

Hell, I felt that way about them when they joined. I thought the only thing they brought to the table was TV markets. I don't recall them being great shakes in the Big 12 or whatever it was.

But I was wrong. Of course, us going through a historically bad stretch helped out quite a bit.

 

[McDad]

Same here. It's hard for me to remember who was good 3+ years ago (outside the usual suspects Georgia, Bama, Clemson, Ohio State)

Since it's the last ten years, I'm going to say Michigan on the over.

Michigan 24

 

[zjcvols]

Notre Dame absolutely has to be in the top 10 most overrated. I'd say Texas is there too, as is probably USC.

Underrated is harder. Wisconsin comes to mind.

Edit - I clicked the source. To not spoil it for everyone else, the position of one of the teams I mentioned is very surprising.

So Ryen Russillo talked about this on his podcast and Notre Dame compared to their preseason rankings actually isn't overrated.

Since 2010, they've only been preseason top 10 five times and yet they've finished top 15 in the polls nine times.

 

[YankeeVol]

So Ryen Russillo talked about this on his podcast and Notre Dame compared to their preseason rankings actually isn't overrated.

Since 2010, they've only been preseason top 10 four times and yet they've finished top 15 in the polls nine times.

They are on the list.

 

[05_never_again]

Hell, I felt that way about them when they joined. I thought the only thing they brought to the table was TV markets. I don't recall them being great shakes in the Big 12 or whatever it was.

But I was wrong. Of course, us going through a historically bad stretch helped out quite a bit.

Yes - Tennessee being awful until a couple of years ago definitely helped them out a lot. UF has been very up and down as well. 2 of the 3 traditional powers in the SEC East haven't been great since 2012, and that vacuum is going to be filled somehow. Even considering those things though, they've done better than I anticipated. I never expected them to be another Vandy, but I didn't expect them to be better than South Carolina and that much better than UK.

A lot of fans of the other SEC schools seem to think of them as a grade above Vandy, or no better than UK, but their performance on the field says otherwise.

 

[05_never_again]

They are on the list.

Not in the top 10 though. Think they're 17th. So they're overrated but not by the margin you'd think.

 

[Godfatha]

#1 has to be someone that is consistently highly ranked year after year, I would think. I'm pondering where to put a team like Oregon, who has had some success, or a team like Florida State who went through some bad spots, but still has been something of a media darling.

 

[05_never_again]

So Ryen Russillo talked about this on his podcast and Notre Dame compared to their preseason rankings actually isn't overrated.

Since 2010, they've only been preseason top 10 five times and yet they've finished top 15 in the polls nine times.

That perception (and my own) could be a relic of the late 90s and 2000s. They fairly routinely finished below their preseason ranking during the Davie/Willingham/Weis years. They were also pretty overrated the last 3 years of Lou Holtz.

Also check out the Gerry Faust years. Before my time, but lots of people remember that. Big yikes.

 

[05_never_again]

#1 has to be someone that is consistently highly ranked year after year, I would think. I'm pondering where to put a team like Oregon, who has had some success, or a team like Florida State who went through some bad spots, but still has been something of a media darling.

lol, I think a lot of people would take issue with that characterization after last year.

I don't think they've been a media darling since the late Bowden years. Jameis's various indiscretions kept them from being a huge promoter of FSU as well.

 

[McDad]

#1 has to be someone that is consistently highly ranked year after year, I would think. I'm pondering where to put a team like Oregon, who has had some success, or a team like Florida State who went through some bad spots, but still has been something of a media darling.

7 Oregon
10 FSU

 

[YankeeVol]

#1 has to be someone that is consistently highly ranked year after year, I would think. I'm pondering where to put a team like Oregon, who has had some success, or a team like Florida State who went through some bad spots, but still has been something of a media darling.

It's probably not who you'd think.

 

[McDad]

It's probably not who you'd think.

They weren't even on my radar.

 

[05_never_again]

It's probably not who you'd think.

They weren't even on my radar.

They actually did cross my mind (not as #1, but perhaps in the top 10 or 20) but I decided against naming them because they also, in the list 10-15 years, have had really good seasons where they began the season unranked. I thought those would kind of cancel out, but I guess not.

 

[McDad]

They actually did cross my mind (not as #1, but perhaps in the top 10 or 20) but I decided against naming them because they also, in the list 10-15 years, have had really good seasons where they began the season unranked. I thought those would kind of cancel out, but I guess not.

Understood. My issue is bias and memory. I don't remember the pre season polls very well and I already have a bias against certain teams who preseason strong.

 

[05_never_again]

Over the last 10 years, the #1 overrated team in question has gone:

2014: preseason #6, finished #22
2015: #6, unranked
2016: unranked, #22
2017: #12, #10
2018: #9, unranked
2019: #16, #14
2020: #8, unranked
2021: unranked, unranked
2022: unranked, unranked
2023: unranked, unranked

That's 4 seasons in the last decade where they were a top 10 preseason team and finished either 22nd or unranked.

So...the two seasons in particular I was thinking of where they drastically outperformed their preseason ranking are actually more than 10 years ago. I'm old. They've also thought to have been bad in the preseason each of the last 3 seasons and actually have been bad, so as you said there's a recency bias to it as well.

 

[LouderVol]

USCw over
Tennessee over
Texas over
Clemson over
notre dame over
Ohio State over
Kentucky over
not sure on the timing exactly, but Stanford I would think was over rated at points.
Boise over, its been a while since Petersen was there.
Ped State over
Miami over
Florida over


Auburn under maybe
kansas state under
Washington under
arizona under
utah under
Oklahoma State under
Cinci under
Iowa State Under
Maryland under
Wisconsin under
michigan under

 

[McDad]

HInt:

A total of 9 SEC teams made the over rated list and 3 made the under rated list.

 

[McDad]

USCw over
Tennessee over
Texas over
Clemson over
notre dame over
Ohio State over
Kentucky over
not sure on the timing exactly, but Stanford I would think was over rated at points.
Boise over, its been a while since Petersen was there.
Ped State over
Miami over
Florida over


Auburn under maybe
kansas state under
Washington under
arizona under
utah under
Oklahoma State under
Cinci under
Iowa State Under
Maryland under
Wisconsin under
michigan under

You got Ohio State, Arizona, and Cinci correct.

Others were correct too but already on the list of guessed.

 

[stolitonic]

SMU on the under maybe.

Doubtful. They are really only a "thing" for the last 5 years or so (well in recent history anyway). Passable in the June Jones era but fell apart after he left maybe a decade ago.

I have watched some games at their stadium that I am not proud of as it is only ten miles down the road. Honestly I had lived in North Dallas for quite a while before it even c"clicked" that they were a local team



Unless they were playing a big dog at home for some bizarre reason (few and far between), their games vs TCU were always their big draw (Dallas vs Ft Worth, etc).

Yes, I know we are in a new world here-but history is history.

 

[joevol33]

ND over, penn st over, Duke underrated, Arizona st under (just a guess)