My Hot take on how Saban leaving affects UT

[GetYouSomeofThat]

A lot of people think that Saban leaving means all of a sudden Alabama is immediately gonna suck. I posit that is the furthest thing from the truth. I think that him leaving saved Alabama from a bigger collapse. DO I think Deboer will have the same Dynasty? Heck no. But Saban saw the writing on the wall. He wanted nothing to do with NIL/PORTAL and he has been witnessing the pussification of modern sports that's been happening for the last 20 years. It was bad enough before NIL/PORTAL. Kids are softer, they cant take hard coaching. They don't want to wait their turn. This is a generation fully immersed in the participation award era. Why is he getting this I'm not, even though he is working and producing and I'm not. This is the world we live in. Had Saban Stayed within a couple years there would have been a big downturn. Deboer gives a chance to mitigate that.

Will Deboer be the next Saban? Not likely we wont see another coach like that for a long time if ever. The dynasty he built can't be replicated as things stand now especially not at Alabama. They do not and won't have a collective to compete toe to toe with the big dogs. Tuscaloosa is not a place people want to go to. When is the last time someone was like 'hey lets hop in the car and go to Tuscaloosa' for anything but a football game or elope with their 3rd cousin? The interesting story is NIL/PORTAL era favors the UT's and LSU more than any other SEC schools because comparatively, they are the only schools not in drive-through towns. Vandy is in Nashville but does not count. Ole Miss is an outlier because they got money anyway. There is a reason Spyre is one of the top collectives. If UT was located in Johnson City it would be a completely different story. Knoxville, Nashville, Austin, Baton Rouge are destination cities comparatively to other SEC cities.

ATHENS, GA
AUBURN, AL
BATON ROUGE, LA <--LSU
BRYAN, TX
COLLEGE STATION, TX
COLUMBIA, MO
COLUMBIA, SC
FAYETTEVILLE, AR
GAINESVILLE, FL
LEXINGTON, KY
NASHVILLE, TN<-- Vandy
OXFORD, MS
STARKVILLE, MS
TUSCALOOSA, AL
KNOXVILLE, TN <--UT

I think Saban leaving ends a dynasty but Alabama will still be a top SEC team for a long time coming. I think UT is in a position to rise to the top because of Spyre and the city of Knoxville. It's a good location, geographically. Has a decent culture. Mild weather year-round comparatively. it is a big enough place that there is access to everything one could want. It is small enough that you're not worrying about getting mugged every time you leave home. No, I am not from Knoxville, I am a proud Chattanoogan. I remember as a youngster in the 80's and 90's I was not interested on any level in going to Knoxville because there was a stigma about that part of the state. Things have changed a lot and Knoxville in the late 90's and 2000's changed a lot (for the better imo).. like the rest of the world.

There are a lot of things we can't affect as fans but one thing we can affect directly is the cities we live in. All you guys up in Knoxville keep doing what you're doing and those of us who can, support Spyre, and good things will happen.

You realize the 2000 years ago Plato wrote a paper about these damn kids today? Any time i see the kids of today pointed out as weak/lazy/lesser, i remember my dad saying exactly the same thing.

If the kids are soft its because the parents failed.


With regard to Nick; i agree, had he stayed they were going to begin slippimg because NIL evened the playing field.

 

[pimo1]

Knoxville is one of the better SEC cities.
Nashville and Austin are the best. Athens is pretty good.

In the grand scheme I'd argue Athens...outside of UGA what does Athens have going for it? if you ask someone not from the SEC to name 4 cities in Georgia Athens aint on the list. Atlanta, Augusta, Savanah, Columbus? I'd say most people would know Marietta before Athens even though Athens is the 5th biggest city.

In the context of NIL, you need to be a legit city. Athens and Gainesville are at the same time too close and too far from Atlanta to matter. It's kind of out of the way with no interstates directly connecting it. Its out in the desert so to say.

 

[chuck0303]

Saban retiring changes college football and that's not me trying to exaggerate. Alabama cannot maintain the way things have been. I do believe the impact is seen this year but they likely have a couple of decent years and then run him out of town because he couldn't meet expectations. It will only get worse from there.

I may be wrong but I don't think they will be able to continue getting all those 4-5 stars they have 3-deep. Will be interesting to see where they are in 2-3 yrs. A couple of years with 8-4 records the gumps will come unglued. The SEC is just getting tougher.

 

[pimo1]

I may be wrong but I don't think they will be able to continue getting all those 4-5 stars they have 3-deep. Will be interesting to see where they are in 2-3 yrs. A couple of years with 8-4 records the gumps will come unglued. The SEC is just getting tougher.

If only it was that simple. You are right they will no longer be able to be 3 deep at 4 stars at every position... neither will anyone else. It's called parity. All of college football is experiencing it. This year is going to be the catalyst for a big change in the landscape. Michigan's portal losses haven't even started in earnest yet. The only team right now that is really full-on rejoicing is OSU they will crown him Saint Nick because his retirement brought them a huge couple xmas presents. But even thats gonna be short-lived. Why would any kid want to sit third on the depth chart at any school?

Back when it was just scholarships and boosters under the table it was different. Trust me most players were not getting nearly the money people are getting now from NIL. Even the top guys were not touching this much money. Now the mid-level guys are getting paid. Lousiville who got spanked by a toothless FSU in the ACC championship is a legit contender for the playoffs this year and likely a favorite in the ACC because of their portal moves. Colorado who with their move to the Big 12 is gonna likely to be a bigger contender in that conference than most think. Imagine if Colorado wins 7-8 games much less if they win 9+.. they have a super weak schedule next year since they are out of the PAC12 they could easily win 8. Then we have the hype train going nuclear.

The college football landscape has gotten a lot more even for almost everyone. The right personality showing up on campus and a nice portal haul could change a lot. It comes down to the city and the coach more than anything I think going forward. A big enough personality at coach in the right city can cause some serious damage. Bama will be fine with Deboer as long as he gets a staff that can recruit that south which it looks like he's working on. They might have to endure an 8-win season or two but people will see 8-9 wins a lot different in 3 years than they do now.

 

[tennrich1]

Actually, Saban sticking around could be a great thing depending on how he handles it. If he is there as an ambassador who enjoys golfing and is available to the new guy when he needs him it could be great and he would be a bridge. If he is looking over Deboer's shoulder, popping up in every practice and podcast.. well that's a totally bad thing. It could go either way. But as Bama if the guy wants and office you give it to him right between his 6 statues.

Actually IMO it won’t be so much Saban as the fanbase. When things don’t go like they think it should…Saban will be the first one theyll go to. Now…theoretically….he could nip that in the bud. If I were the new coach …i wouldn’t want him around to much. Deboer already got the biggest challenge any new leader could face…following Nick Saban. But…maybe it will work ok.

 

[Rockytop10nessee]

A lot of people think that Saban leaving means all of a sudden Alabama is immediately gonna suck. I posit that is the furthest thing from the truth. I think that him leaving saved Alabama from a bigger collapse. DO I think Deboer will have the same Dynasty? Heck no. But Saban saw the writing on the wall. He wanted nothing to do with NIL/PORTAL and he has been witnessing the pussification of modern sports that's been happening for the last 20 years. It was bad enough before NIL/PORTAL. Kids are softer, they cant take hard coaching. They don't want to wait their turn. This is a generation fully immersed in the participation award era. Why is he getting this I'm not, even though he is working and producing and I'm not. This is the world we live in. Had Saban Stayed within a couple years there would have been a big downturn. Deboer gives a chance to mitigate that.

Will Deboer be the next Saban? Not likely we wont see another coach like that for a long time if ever. The dynasty he built can't be replicated as things stand now especially not at Alabama. They do not and won't have a collective to compete toe to toe with the big dogs. Tuscaloosa is not a place people want to go to. When is the last time someone was like 'hey lets hop in the car and go to Tuscaloosa' for anything but a football game or elope with their 3rd cousin? The interesting story is NIL/PORTAL era favors the UT's and LSU more than any other SEC schools because comparatively, they are the only schools not in drive-through towns. Vandy is in Nashville but does not count. Ole Miss is an outlier because they got money anyway. There is a reason Spyre is one of the top collectives. If UT was located in Johnson City it would be a completely different story. Knoxville, Nashville, Austin, Baton Rouge are destination cities comparatively to other SEC cities.

ATHENS, GA
AUBURN, AL
BATON ROUGE, LA <--LSU
BRYAN, TX
COLLEGE STATION, TX
COLUMBIA, MO
COLUMBIA, SC
FAYETTEVILLE, AR
GAINESVILLE, FL
LEXINGTON, KY
NASHVILLE, TN<-- Vandy
OXFORD, MS
STARKVILLE, MS
TUSCALOOSA, AL
KNOXVILLE, TN <--UT

I think Saban leaving ends a dynasty but Alabama will still be a top SEC team for a long time coming. I think UT is in a position to rise to the top because of Spyre and the city of Knoxville. It's a good location, geographically. Has a decent culture. Mild weather year-round comparatively. it is a big enough place that there is access to everything one could want. It is small enough that you're not worrying about getting mugged every time you leave home. No, I am not from Knoxville, I am a proud Chattanoogan. I remember as a youngster in the 80's and 90's I was not interested on any level in going to Knoxville because there was a stigma about that part of the state. Things have changed a lot and Knoxville in the late 90's and 2000's changed a lot (for the better imo).. like the rest of the world.

There are a lot of things we can't affect as fans but one thing we can affect directly is the cities we live in. All you guys up in Knoxville keep doing what you're doing and those of us who can, support Spyre, and good things will happen.

LMMFAO

 

[terrypedigo]

Saban got beat by TX this year and was afraid to have to play them every other year

Saban retired because of the NIL, the playing field is a lot more equal now, he hated the NIL.

 

[volfeeva]

I don't think any school from this day going forward will have the lock on getting the most top 5* players --and keeping them---like Saban did at Bama. The transfer rules changes brought parity to some degree to college football for better or worse. I think Saban used to grab his highly recruited players early and coast till the fall. Now, recruiting and grooming/paying/keeping players is a full time year round job that he didn't want to be a part of. That, and losing to other teams he feels would hurt his legacy .

 

[Butch s]

I don’t think deboer has any idea what he has stepped into. His luck is going to run out quickly in the SEC

 

[pimo1]

I don’t think deboer has any idea what he has stepped into. His luck is going to run out quickly in the SEC

What's that based on? In 9 years as a head coach he is 104-12 in his 2 seasons at Washington he lost 3 games total. Bro has one of the most impressive resumes I have ever seen on a first-time SEC coach. He will at worst be a good coach. Second, his first few hires were extremely smart and covered up one of the biggest weaknesses he had coming in (recruiting the south and Alabama) he kept 2 of the top recruiters from Sabans staff and maybe most importantly convinced Grubb to follow him as OC to Bama instead of taking the head coaching job in Washington and also brought their freshman all America center along to replace the guy that probably lost Bama the game to Michigan in the playoffs.

Yeah, this guy has to prove it but his resume and moves say do not underestimate him. I'd bet you money that when Saban was first hired at LSU in 2000 people were saying the same thing about him. He'd also never coached in the south before then. underestimating opponents if how you get embarrassed. Until it's proven on the field otherwise, he is a threat.

 

[jlbvols]

I think he sees the writing on the wall also, that says now everyone can pay players, not just the gumps,and they just don’t have enough money

Another factor with Saban retiring was Emmert’s resignation. I suspected Nick would not be far behind as his cover for cheating was gone. Alabama’s model for dynasties under Bear and Saban. Hire coaches that are beyond reproach by NCAA or rig the system as Saban did (See Emmert). Then cheat and steal championships. It’s that simple.

 

[chattavol420]

I agree with a lot of what you’re saying. Sabin definitely knew going forward he would have less and less of a roster/talent advantage each season. But, it seems as though you are saying that’s a bad thing. They would stomp us by 40+ every year before the transfer portal and immediate eligibility (along with NIL opportunities). Did you forget about that? These new rules have allowed teams like Tennessee with a lot of resources, but behind our major competitors in total roster talent, the opportunity to catch up quickly. How could any of our fans not realize these changes have been a godsend for programs like us?

I atotally disagree that those things are bad for college football. It’s also such a stupid statement when people say things like this generation of kids are coddled and just get participation trophies for nothing etc. As a dad of a son who did travel baseball for years… I can tell you firsthand Sports today are 1000 times more competitive and intense than 30 years earlier when I was playing youth sports. Kids start specializing in a particular sport by age 10 and often will play incredibly long and grueling season. Kids arrive at college more ready to play today than ever before. That’s why you see so many underclassmen starring on championship winning teams.

 

[Volfan76]

I didn't read all of that and I'm not gonna, but if the sentiment didn't change after the first few lines, I disagree. I think when he loses 3-4 games, and he most likely will his first year, that fan base will turn on him. No players will want to play in that environment. The next coach may have a chance because expectations will be lower by then, but I don't see it. I think this was a bad career move for deboer.

 

[Fightmaker]

It will not save the dynasty but it will save them from having a complete collapse like Florida. They will no longer rule college football but they will be a perennial Top 15 team for the foreseeable future with the moves they made. Deboer is a good enough coach to pull that off.

This is correct. Bama will turn into modern day LSU at best and worst. Tennessee however, is on the rise. Saban’s retirement allows Tennessee to surpass Alabama in my opinion. We are only looking up at Georgia for the time being, and that is temporary. I think Heupel is good enough to make this a Fulmer-Spurrier type rivalry for the foreseeable future, for SEC supremacy.

 

[greenbacknative]

W

What’s wrong with Johnson City?

Did they have a world's fair in Johnson City ?

 

[Volfan1000]

A lot of people think that Saban leaving means all of a sudden Alabama is immediately gonna suck. I posit that is the furthest thing from the truth. I think that him leaving saved Alabama from a bigger collapse. DO I think Deboer will have the same Dynasty? Heck no. But Saban saw the writing on the wall. He wanted nothing to do with NIL/PORTAL and he has been witnessing the pussification of modern sports that's been happening for the last 20 years. It was bad enough before NIL/PORTAL. Kids are softer, they cant take hard coaching. They don't want to wait their turn. This is a generation fully immersed in the participation award era. Why is he getting this I'm not, even though he is working and producing and I'm not. This is the world we live in. Had Saban Stayed within a couple years there would have been a big downturn. Deboer gives a chance to mitigate that.

Will Deboer be the next Saban? Not likely we wont see another coach like that for a long time if ever. The dynasty he built can't be replicated as things stand now especially not at Alabama. They do not and won't have a collective to compete toe to toe with the big dogs. Tuscaloosa is not a place people want to go to. When is the last time someone was like 'hey lets hop in the car and go to Tuscaloosa' for anything but a football game or elope with their 3rd cousin? The interesting story is NIL/PORTAL era favors the UT's and LSU more than any other SEC schools because comparatively, they are the only schools not in drive-through towns. Vandy is in Nashville but does not count. Ole Miss is an outlier because they got money anyway. There is a reason Spyre is one of the top collectives. If UT was located in Johnson City it would be a completely different story. Knoxville, Nashville, Austin, Baton Rouge are destination cities comparatively to other SEC cities.

ATHENS, GA
AUBURN, AL
BATON ROUGE, LA <--LSU
BRYAN, TX
COLLEGE STATION, TX
COLUMBIA, MO
COLUMBIA, SC
FAYETTEVILLE, AR
GAINESVILLE, FL
LEXINGTON, KY
NASHVILLE, TN<-- Vandy
OXFORD, MS
STARKVILLE, MS
TUSCALOOSA, AL
KNOXVILLE, TN <--UT

I think Saban leaving ends a dynasty but Alabama will still be a top SEC team for a long time coming. I think UT is in a position to rise to the top because of Spyre and the city of Knoxville. It's a good location, geographically. Has a decent culture. Mild weather year-round comparatively. it is a big enough place that there is access to everything one could want. It is small enough that you're not worrying about getting mugged every time you leave home. No, I am not from Knoxville, I am a proud Chattanoogan. I remember as a youngster in the 80's and 90's I was not interested on any level in going to Knoxville because there was a stigma about that part of the state. Things have changed a lot and Knoxville in the late 90's and 2000's changed a lot (for the better imo).. like the rest of the world.

There are a lot of things we can't affect as fans but one thing we can affect directly is the cities we live in. All you guys up in Knoxville keep doing what you're doing and those of us who can, support Spyre, and good things will happen.

With the retirement of Saban, I think that Heupel and his staff can get a few more high school recruits out of the state of Alabama in the future.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

Tennessee LSU, and Auburn will see an increase in recruiting with Saban out.

If they expect him to replicate what Saban did you're 100% right.. but he will be able to pull off consistent 9-10 win seasons. It's about setting realistic expectations which isn't a thing fans tend to do.

They'll never be what they were under Saban ever again. That being said, ten wins with the new schedule in this league will be harder than most people on this board are assuming. That's for anybody. And then to win the 11th in the title game will be even harder. Everyone will have it tough, Alabama included.

 

[DarkVolder]

It pains me to say it, but the Gumps will still be very good. They made a good hire. I still hate them!

Yea he’s a good coach but don’t let them lie to you he wasn’t their first choice. They wanted Lanning and Norville over him. I’m glad they didn’t hire Kiffin.

 

[TennMan101]

Biggest issue the new coach with have to deal with IMO. For all the past experiences I can think of...a clean separation and a new beginning is the only way to be able to "forget" the past and move on with the new staff. IMO it applies not only to sports but business, church, non-profits, etc.

I agree. It's like having your annoying step dad at every practice/game watching over you. Will Saban scream at Deboer if he does something he doesn't like? That seems to be his way.

 

[DarkVolder]

More than likely Debore will be another Ray Perkins who I thought was a pretty good coach but the Bammers ran him off and unfortunately he followed Bear. You want to the guy after the guy that replaces the legend.

 

[TennMan101]

Yea he’s a good coach but don’t let them lie to you he wasn’t their first choice. They wanted Lanning and Norville over him. I’m glad they didn’t hire Kiffin.

Kiffin was my biggest worry. Maybe because I'm not as familiar with the other candidates.

 

[JRich]

Interesting take for sure. I don’t agree with OP’s opinions on current youth or cities. The ones that play D1 & D2 have likely worked year round since they were 5 years old. I think he is a little out of touch with competitive youth sports today and the amount of commitment and dedication it takes to even get an NAIA scholarship. He may be thinking about recreational leagues.

No one chooses a football program because of the city it resides in. Location is important, relative to the players home and family, but not the makeup of the city. No offense, Knoxville is not anything special.

As far as Saban, the guy has been doing it at a high level for a long time, maybe it’s just that time for him. He has always adapted well to change and maintained success. I do think the era of dynasties is over. College football is now about building that one special team for that one special season.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

What's that based on? In 9 years as a head coach he is 104-12 in his 2 seasons at Washington he lost 3 games total. Bro has one of the most impressive resumes I have ever seen on a first-time SEC coach. He will at worst be a good coach. Second, his first few hires were extremely smart and covered up one of the biggest weaknesses he had coming in (recruiting the south and Alabama) he kept 2 of the top recruiters from Sabans staff and maybe most importantly convinced Grubb to follow him as OC to Bama instead of taking the head coaching job in Washington and also brought their freshman all America center along to replace the guy that probably lost Bama the game to Michigan in the playoffs.

Yeah, this guy has to prove it but his resume and moves say do not underestimate him. I'd bet you money that when Saban was first hired at LSU in 2000 people were saying the same thing about him. He'd also never coached in the south before then. underestimating opponents if how you get embarrassed. Until it's proven on the field otherwise, he is a threat.

All this was the same things said about Kelly when he was hired at LSU. Didn't seem to slow him down. If your a good coach you can be successful anywhere with only a few smart adjustments.

 

[bigorangepoppa]

I think he sees the writing on the wall also, that says now everyone can pay players, not just the gumps,and they just don’t have enough money

My wife and I watched the "Coach Prime" documentary, and one episode has Saban an Deion talking about NIL. I too was tired of all the glorification of Saban during his coaching reign at 'bama, but he makes an interesting comment in it.

 

[Frivolous]

They do not and won't have a collective to compete toe to toe with the big dogs. Tuscaloosa is not a place people want to go to. When is the last time someone was like 'hey lets hop in the car and go to Tuscaloosa' for anything but a football game or elope with their 3rd cousin? The interesting story is NIL/PORTAL era favors the UT's and LSU more than any other SEC schools because comparatively, they are the only schools not in drive-through towns. Vandy is in Nashville but does not count. Ole Miss is an outlier because they got money anyway. There is a reason Spyre is one of the top collectives. If UT was located in Johnson City it would be a completely different story. Knoxville, Nashville, Austin, Baton Rouge are destination cities comparatively to other SEC cities.

I don't agree with this premise. Doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between the city the university is in and NIL.

And Lexington would probably qualify as more of a "destination" city than Knoxville, what with Keeneland and all the bourbon trail stuff. It's a little bigger, too.