NCAA FB Line discussion..(gambler thread)

#27
#27
oregon state tends to get it going later in the season. i could easily see them beating stanford. stanford's d is very slow and osu has good team speed.
 
#28
#28
The two early games we have left this week is

Nebraska at Missouri at 6pac on ESPN..My casino got it at -3 for Nebraska

and the other is

La Tech at Nevada ESPN 6pac on ESPN..Casino has Nevada -7.5 fav

VolNShock and others have much better read than I do on the Nebraska game. The one I have a little on is the Nevada game, the Friday night game. From what i am hearing lots of folks are betting on LA Tech. I have not broke down the numbers, but that was what they were talking up last night. Mind you it is the same group that talked up the over in the Monday Nite Football game and got blown away.

So who do you all take in this two games and why?
 
#29
#29
I don't have any vested interest in the Nebraska/Mizzou game but I checked it out anyway and here's my meager thoughts.......

How in the world is a 4-0 home team a 3 1/2 point dog at this point? I realize Missouri hasn't played anyone but besides Nebraska's good showing against Virginia Tech they haven't played anyone either.

A couple of things to ponder about this game too.

The road team has won straight up only 3 times in the last 10 games of this series.

Its not usually a good idea to bet against a home dog on such a low spread.....

Saying all of that if I were just betting this weekend I think I'd stay away from this game. There is at least perceived value in several other games on Saturday. I wouldn't bet on this one unless I absolutely had to. And if I had to I guess I'd go with the prevailing trends and play the home dog Missouri here in this spot.
 
#30
#30
VOLnVEGAS said:
The two early games we have left this week is

Nebraska at Missouri at 6pac on ESPN..My casino got it at -3 for Nebraska

and the other is

La Tech at Nevada ESPN 6pac on ESPN..Casino has Nevada -7.5 fav

VolNShock and others have much better read than I do on the Nebraska game. The one I have a little on is the Nevada game, the Friday night game. From what i am hearing lots of folks are betting on LA Tech. I have not broke down the numbers, but that was what they were talking up last night. Mind you it is the same group that talked up the over in the Monday Nite Football game and got blown away.

So who do you all take in this two games and why?
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I have had a bad time this year on the weekday games with teams from smaller conferences. I have no idea with that La Tech vs Nevada game. I took Hawaii in the last LT game. Man was I square on that game. Perfect example of me not doing well on the weekday games.

If someone has some decent info on this game, I may look to put some action on it.

On the Neb vs Miz game, one of my deciding factors was both teams play so far this year. Mizzou has not played a good team, imo, all year. They only beat Bowling Green by 7. Neb has played some tough teams, and stayed with them all year. Lost to VaTech by 1. Blew out a decent Ark St. team.

If Mizzou does win, I think they are for real, this is a big game for them.
 
#31
#31
Yeah I agree with both of you on this one. Think I might stay completely away from the Nebraska Mizzou game altogther. There is some weak lines that I think we can beat this weekend. It is going to be a fun game to watch anyways. Like some oldtimer once told me at the sportbook, when you dont know which side to pick take the home team! Not the best of advice!

I am goin to casino tonite and see what I hear again on the LA TECH Nevada game. I know alot of these fellas follow the Nevada and UNLV teams and will give me some info, because I am clueless on what Nevada really has
 
#32
#32
On the LA Tech/Nevada game...

With me being a grad of LA Tech, I keep up with them a little. Nevada seems to have our number on a yearly basis, but Tech seems to get better and better every year. Derek Dooley is making some improvements to the team. I think Nevada wins by 7 in this game, but Tech covers the spread.
 
#35
#35
Who does everybody got as their locks for this weekend?? Am still working on mine. Posting them later.
 
#36
#36
VOLnVEGAS said:
Yeah that was a fun game. I laid off it and didnt bet anything. Should have followed your advice
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Very fun indeed. I always think that if you're not 100% sure with a bet, don't place it. Nothing worse than not being 100% sure, placing the bet, and losing. Cause then you 2nd guess your decision even more.

Edit: BTW I took a degenerate gamble on the LT vs Nevada game. I took LT.
 
#37
#37
There's some tough games this weekend. I picked Nebraska last night and was on edge til the 4th.

The line for the Bama/Ole Miss game was down to 5 last time I checked so I'm taking Bama on that for sure.

I'm taking Michigan State at -4 playing at Illinois. Some already touched on it but the Illini are awful and start a new QB.

Virginia's favored by 6.5 over Indiana. Both teams are bad but I think UVA's worse even though they beat UNC, who hasn't looked good this year. Indiana's played most teams tough all year and won the games they were supposed to.

Minnesota's favored by 3 against Purdue. I think Minn covers and they need to win a home game.
 
#38
#38
I actually wound up changing 2 of my picks - I went with Tennessee as a last minute gut instinct. Figured either I'd crash and burn with them or they'd really pull through for me in the spot. I knew not many of the guys in the weekly picks would be on UT and I was right.

I also changed my pick to UCLA +6.5 after seeing that Oregon's starting QB is out. Just kind of went out on a limb to do that - I still am pretty unsure of this pick though.

If I had to pick a game I felt best about this weekend it would be Boston College +13.5 at Virginia Tech. I just think that's way too many points for Tech to have to try and cover against a big rival. I still wish the line had been 14 but I'll be really shocked if Virginia Tech wins this game by more than 4-7 points - if they win at all.
 
#39
#39
That is a huge line DOWNnDiry. I like the pick. The Tennesse pick, for personal fan reason I hope will work out. I aint putting any money on it just because I am not sure.
Like your picks alot though. I am goin to play the Boston College too.

Nevada killed LA TECH tonite. Could not believe it. Was a touchdown away from the over too. At the poker room they were crying alot over that game. Alot played the over and got smoked..I left this game alone myself. Still trying to make the picks as we speak for tomm...

WHO YOU ALL GOT??
 
#40
#40
LAVolfan said:
On the LA Tech/Nevada game...

With me being a grad of LA Tech, I keep up with them a little. Nevada seems to have our number on a yearly basis, but Tech seems to get better and better every year. Derek Dooley is making some improvements to the team. I think Nevada wins by 7 in this game, but Tech covers the spread.
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Good call on Nevada.
 
#41
#41
I took:

Bama (-4) over Ole Miss

Auburn (+1) over Arkansas (still not sure why I picked this)

Wisconsin (+16) vs. Ohio State
 
#42
#42
Wisconsin is +16? Holy crap - that might be worth a moneyline play for someone adventurous. I think they "could" beat Ohio State and that would be a pretty payday at th window.
 
#43
#43
DownNDirty said:
Wisconsin is +16? Holy crap - that might be worth a moneyline play for someone adventurous. I think they "could" beat Ohio State and that would be a pretty payday at th window.
Click to expand...

Yup. They usually always play Ohio State close, regardless of rankings and lines. I had to jump all over this one.
 
#44
#44
Well I'm already getting smoked and my lock of the week is down 31-0 and its not even halftime. Can't believe BC is playing THAT bad. I'm also right now losing Vandy and Auburn. Not a great start - probably already toasted.
 
#46
#46
Yeah I forgot to comment on how I thought BC would come out flat after an emotional win last week (I swear I thought that before they were getting killed).

My picks so far are okay although I picked the over in the Auburn/Ark game, which could still happen if Auburn wakes up.
 
#49
#49
buckeyevol23 said:
The line for the Bama/Ole Miss game was down to 5 last time I checked so I'm taking Bama on that for sure.

I'm taking Michigan State at -4 playing at Illinois. Some already touched on it but the Illini are awful and start a new QB.

Virginia's favored by 6.5 over Indiana. Both teams are bad but I think UVA's worse even though they beat UNC, who hasn't looked good this year. Indiana's played most teams tough all year and won the games they were supposed to.

Minnesota's favored by 3 against Purdue. I think Minn covers and they need to win a home game.
Click to expand...

Good thing I swapped out that Indiana pick for Duke at NC State and the over for the Aub/Ark game. Duke's looking good and as long as Bama holds on, I'll hit on all 5 games of my parlay.
 
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