NCAA FB Line discussion..(gambler thread)

#76
#76
I officially made one change before sending my picks in this morning - I changed from Notre Dame to USC.

My dad also plays a card in the pool weekly so we try to go opposite on at least 3 games to give us a better chance at winning on one of them. We decided to just split the pot if one of us wins.......

Saying that his 3 opposites are:

ND +10
Penn State -16.5
Cal -3.5
 
#77
#77
Well, I just lost my first game...

TX -3.5

Here's the rest of my day...

USC -10 over ND
GT +4 over VT
Miami -14 over UCF
AU -13.5 over KY
Bama -17 over SCjr



Edit: Terrible day....hope tomorrow is better....
 
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#80
#80
But at least we did call the Florida game right and that was my big bet. Hope you all got on that one too
 
#81
#81
Vols N Shocks said:
-6 Pittsburgh vs +6 Rutgers
There is a lot of action on Pitt for this game, the line has moved from 3 to 6, I wish I would have gotten in on this earlier in the week, but I still like Pitt in this game. Pitt has handled their opponents well, with a few decent opponents coming into tonight, Rutgers however has played nothing but creampuffs all year, and still have a loss. The under is a good play here too. Something like 8 out of last 9 meetings between these teams have gone under.

-9.5 Kansas vs +9.5 Colorado
Kansas has a high flying offense, and Colorado has a sketchy defense. Not to mention that Colorado finally took Hawkins out at QB last game. I think there will be confusion on the QB situation to an already lackluster offensive production. KU wins big.

-6 Texas A&M vs +6 K State
Wierd line to me. Just from the looks of this match up I think A&M pounds K State. KSU is AWFUL this year. If KSU comes even remotely close to this line, or wins, A&M should go back to Texas and never play football again.

-3 Virginia Tech vs +3 G Tech
VT has a really good team this year, Beamer has them chugging along. GT on the other hand is over rater imo. Constantly getting better spreads than they should. I think VT blows them out in this one. Nessbit will have another 2-11 showing. The guy is a RB that can't throw, not a QB that can run.

+24.5 Arkansas vs -24.5 Florida
Head scratcher here. How Arkansas's offense doesn't keep them within 24.5 is beyond me. However this is one of those games that makes me think twice, because the spread is so obvioulsy wrong to me, that it makes me wonder what Vegas is trying to do here. What is their angle? UF could very well come out and just blow the socks off Ark.

+3 Iowa vs -3 Wisconsin
Iowa gets no love from the betters. I think they win by a TD. Not much to say about this game, other than I think both teams may be a bit overrated, which one is more overrated though. Aub vs UT rings a few bells with this one as well.

-3 Bowling Green vs +3 Ball St.
Clawson gets his team to come out after a winning last week, and gets them to start a winning streak. They need this win for their season to be a success, and Ball St. is just horrible.

Good luck gents.
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6-3 ATS this week. Not bad, especially since I bet big on 2 of those games I won on.

Talk about KU letting me down, how do you lose to Colorado? And how does A&M get absolutely dismantled by KSU? Nothing more I hate seeing than KSU winning. UGH.
 
#86
#86
I like Penn State to beat Michigan by at least 2 scores....I think the line is at 5 now hopefully it will stay below 6
 
#88
#88
VOLnVEGAS said:
VolnShock--You are like me we take the hits but on the big bets we came out good.
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I only bet big a few times, only when I'm outright sure I am getting a good angle on a game.

Through the last 2 weeks of NFL and CFB I am 23-14. I just wish I can keep this going through the end of the year. I know 63% isn't realistic for a whole season, but one can dream.
 
#90
#90
droski said:
I always seem to end up right at .500 against the spread.
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Thats the nature of the beast. The purpose of the spread is that if you flip a coin, you should be about as close to .500 over time.

The best handicappers are about a 56% winner over the long term. You need to win around 52% of your games to break even from the juice. The bookies have this down to a science.
 
#91
#91
They sure do that is why you got to keep battling and lookin for the weak lines, then take advantage of them. I am trying to find 3 BIG LOCKS for this weekend right now
 
#92
#92
Here's the ten games for this week's pool at work on my end...........and FYI my dad's card won last weekend with a 7-2-1 mark. He only lost the VA Tech/GA Tech game and the Auburn/KY games - and they were the last two games of the night.

1. Clemson +6.5 @ Miami - This honestly could go either way but I'm about 65/35 Miami here. Clemson lost to Maryland and the Terps are horrible this year. I think here at home Miami comes out strong and takes down Clemson. Thinking this will be a 34-24 type of game.

2. Georgia Tech -4 @ UVA - Dang Virginia always beats Georgia Tech at home. Everyone and their mother is on GT here. Did you know that UVA hasn't lost to GT at home since 1990? They have wins against Tech in 92, 95, 97, 99, 01, 03, 05, and 07. This doesn't seem to be the same UVA team that lost to William and Mary in the opening contest. But then again GT is a very solid team and are coming off a huge win against VT last week. I'm going waaaay out on a limb here and taking the bait and going to play UVA here. If they pull through for me I will likely be the only one getting a W out of this game in the pool. Virginia 17, Georgia Tech 14 (Dad is taking GT)

3. Arkansas +5.5 @ Ole Miss - I bought the Ole Miss hype in the preseason. Then I watched them struggle mightily against a bad Memphis team early in the year and changed my mind on them. I think Arkansas "could" come in here a bit deflated after the heartbreaking loss against Florida last week. But I'm more inclined to think that they will come in to Ole Miss and take care of business. Arkansas 21, Ole Miss 20

4. Oklahoma -7.5 @ Kansas - Well, KU has only lost one game this year. Unfortunately that was last weekend against a middle of the road Colorado team. Oklahoma will take care of business here and give KU its second straight loss. Glancing at the Kansas schedule they haven't played anyone that impresses me very much so I'm just going to go with my gut here and say OU will cover here. Oklahoma 38, Kansas 27

5. Boston College +9 @ Notre Dame - Well the weekly ND screwing here. Don't matter what side I pick I will be wrong. I'm going BC here for one main reason - they have won 6 straight vs the Irish. BC isn't as bad as the drumming they got from Virginia Tech IMO. I don't know if they extend the winning streak here - in fact I think they don't - but I also think that BC at least covers the spread. Notre Dame 28, BC 21 (Dad is on ND here)

6. Penn State -4.5 @ Michigan - PSU never seems to cover, ever. But I think with the low spread here they take care of Michigan. PSU has such a solid D that I think they hamper Rich Rod's scheme. And for some reason I'm thinking this won't even be that close. PSU 31, Michigan 17

7. Tennessee +16.5 @ Alabama - Hate hate hate having to play TN games every week. I guess the homer part of me says UT won't get embarassed at least. I have to go with the Vols here.

8. Vandy +12.5 @ South Carolina - The USC defense will stop the pathetic Vandy offense without much effort. USC doesn't have an explosive offense but I don't hold much hope for Vandy scoring much either. I will say USC 23, Vandy 6

9. Auburn +7.5 @ LSU - I'm still not convinced LSU is even a top 15 team. I'm not convinced Auburn won't implode this weekend either though. However, this game is usually played fairly close and I can see this being an LSU/Georgia type of game. I will take the points here and go with Auburn and pray to God the wheels haven't fallen completely off. LSU 14, Auburn 10 (Dad has LSU)

10. Florida -22 @ Mississippi State - That's just way to many points to be laying on the road in the SEC IMO. Florida of course will want to kill MSU here since they slipped in the public eye last week. But MSU can score enough I think to keep the final under the spread, barely. Florida 31, MSU 17 (Dad on Florida here)

So my dad has 4 differences than me - one of us will not do all that well this week.
 
#93
#93
I did not know that about the GT/UVA series, I thought something was odd with the low spread, but it's gutsy to take UVA and I think I will since people in my group will probably all take GT.

Did you also know that Penn State hasn't won at Michigan since 1996?
 
#94
#94
DownNDirty said:
Here's the ten games for this week's pool at work on my end...........and FYI my dad's card won last weekend with a 7-2-1 mark. He only lost the VA Tech/GA Tech game and the Auburn/KY games - and they were the last two games of the night.

1. Clemson +6.5 @ Miami - This honestly could go either way but I'm about 65/35 Miami here. Clemson lost to Maryland and the Terps are horrible this year. I think here at home Miami comes out strong and takes down Clemson. Thinking this will be a 34-24 type of game.

2. Georgia Tech -4 @ UVA - Dang Virginia always beats Georgia Tech at home. Everyone and their mother is on GT here. Did you know that UVA hasn't lost to GT at home since 1990? They have wins against Tech in 92, 95, 97, 99, 01, 03, 05, and 07. This doesn't seem to be the same UVA team that lost to William and Mary in the opening contest. But then again GT is a very solid team and are coming off a huge win against VT last week. I'm going waaaay out on a limb here and taking the bait and going to play UVA here. If they pull through for me I will likely be the only one getting a W out of this game in the pool. Virginia 17, Georgia Tech 14 (Dad is taking GT)

3. Arkansas +5.5 @ Ole Miss - I bought the Ole Miss hype in the preseason. Then I watched them struggle mightily against a bad Memphis team early in the year and changed my mind on them. I think Arkansas "could" come in here a bit deflated after the heartbreaking loss against Florida last week. But I'm more inclined to think that they will come in to Ole Miss and take care of business. Arkansas 21, Ole Miss 20

4. Oklahoma -7.5 @ Kansas - Well, KU has only lost one game this year. Unfortunately that was last weekend against a middle of the road Colorado team. Oklahoma will take care of business here and give KU its second straight loss. Glancing at the Kansas schedule they haven't played anyone that impresses me very much so I'm just going to go with my gut here and say OU will cover here. Oklahoma 38, Kansas 27

5. Boston College +9 @ Notre Dame - Well the weekly ND screwing here. Don't matter what side I pick I will be wrong. I'm going BC here for one main reason - they have won 6 straight vs the Irish. BC isn't as bad as the drumming they got from Virginia Tech IMO. I don't know if they extend the winning streak here - in fact I think they don't - but I also think that BC at least covers the spread. Notre Dame 28, BC 21 (Dad is on ND here)

6. Penn State -4.5 @ Michigan - PSU never seems to cover, ever. But I think with the low spread here they take care of Michigan. PSU has such a solid D that I think they hamper Rich Rod's scheme. And for some reason I'm thinking this won't even be that close. PSU 31, Michigan 17

7. Tennessee +16.5 @ Alabama - Hate hate hate having to play TN games every week. I guess the homer part of me says UT won't get embarassed at least. I have to go with the Vols here.

8. Vandy +12.5 @ South Carolina - The USC defense will stop the pathetic Vandy offense without much effort. USC doesn't have an explosive offense but I don't hold much hope for Vandy scoring much either. I will say USC 23, Vandy 6

9. Auburn +7.5 @ LSU - I'm still not convinced LSU is even a top 15 team. I'm not convinced Auburn won't implode this weekend either though. However, this game is usually played fairly close and I can see this being an LSU/Georgia type of game. I will take the points here and go with Auburn and pray to God the wheels haven't fallen completely off. LSU 14, Auburn 10 (Dad has LSU)

10. Florida -22 @ Mississippi State - That's just way to many points to be laying on the road in the SEC IMO. Florida of course will want to kill MSU here since they slipped in the public eye last week. But MSU can score enough I think to keep the final under the spread, barely. Florida 31, MSU 17 (Dad on Florida here)

So my dad has 4 differences than me - one of us will not do all that well this week.
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I like 'em all, except GT and LSU

I think UVA will struggle with the Option, and get worn down in the 4th Qtr....
LSU will just come down to LSU having more athletes...
 
#97
#97
Not my best week ever, not my worst. I am 31-27-0 for the year, at 53.45%.

Won last night taking Philly on MNF.

I'm taking ECU at -4 tonight against Memphis.
 
#98
#98
i was right on my furd over ASU prediction.

i like SC to cover, cal to cover, and oregon state to cover.
 
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