Why Texas will win: Few teams, if any, can match the Longhorns' defensive toughness. The schemes and personnel are a superior combination.
Rori Harmon as the harassing on-ball defender on the perimeter makes Vic Schaefer's strategies work, while the wall of size inside of
Taylor Jones,
Kyla Oldacre and
Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda can squeeze the life out of opposing offenses attempting to score in the lane. Throw in that on most nights Texas has the best player on the court in
Madison Booker and it's advantage, Longhorns.
Why Tennessee will win: The Lady Vols can simply outshoot the Longhorns -- not necessarily more accurately but in sheer volume. Tennessee makes only 32.9% of its 3-pointers but shoots more than all but two teams in the country and makes the second-most of those shots. Texas does not have the willingness, or the firepower, to compete in that area. If the Lady Vols can cash in from deep enough times, the Longhorns might not be able to make enough 2-pointers to compensate.
X factor: These are two of the best rebounding teams in the country, but when they met in Austin in late January (a four-point Longhorns win), Texas was plus-15 on the boards -- and that was with Oldacre as a nonfactor. The Lady Vols' best chance is to tighten that difference up, especially if it comes in the form of second-chance points. So keep an eye on those offensive rebounding numbers. If the advantage goes to Oldacre and Jones, the Longhorns will prevail.
-- Creme
Picks to win
Adelson: Tennessee 77, Texas 76
Andrews: Texas 70, Tennessee 63
Barnes: Texas 68, Tennessee 60
Creme: Texas 75, Tennessee 70
Pelton: Texas 81, Tennessee 69
Philippou: Texas 78, Tennessee 72
Voepel: Texas 66, Tennessee 62