Need SMU to win out for HOST I think.

[VolPack22]

Bama, South Carolina, and Miami should care about SMU winning. If SMU loses, Bama, Miami , or South Carolina are probably out.

I’m looking forward to Clemson winning and South Carolina finishing as the first team out. Then we might have enough controversy to eliminate the auto bids.

I think Miami isn’t even in the discussion anymore. It’s an Alabama/South Carolina discussion for the last spot.

 

[adam.vol]

I just dont think Ohio St Drops that far with the committee.

I’ll be shocked if they drop that far. Their loss to Michigan is very similar to our loss to Arkansas, only it was a home game for OSU and an away game for TN.

Georgia could claim the #2 seed and then our other loss would be to #2 away and OSU’s would be to #1 away.

Indiana/ PSU rankings will hurt us, even though Bama is probably better than either of them.

 

[UT97Vol]

I'm projecting SMU to be ranked 5 and TN ranked 7th. If SMU wins I think every "projected ranked" 6-8 ranked are hosts. Notre Dame is a lock at 5 SEED. If SMU loses, they might still have SMU ahead of TN... TN is the only team in top 8 who can't play in their conference championship. SMU is a 2 loss ACC runner up. TN is 2 loss. I just feel like it's more about how they feel about SMU than anything.

You're really getting further away from reality. SMU isn't jumping us.

 

[Dougie_D]

Of course they are. You think they lose to a 3-loss team and don't drop at all? Good grief. They are going to be lucky to stay in the playoff at all if they lose. They are 50/50 to stay in if they lose CCG. As I demonstrated in the other thread I posted last hour every CCG loses spots in rankings if they lose.

And even if they didn't they would still be behind us.

I'm just saying because CFP projected GA in the playoffs as the last host AS a 3 loss team.

 

[UT97Vol]

I'm just saying because CFP projected GA in the playoffs as the last host AS a 3 loss team.

You're losing me dude. I have no idea what you're talking about. UGA doesn't have three losses and the committee certainly hasn't pontificated at this point on giving a Georgia a home game if they lose the championship game.

 

[bpalmer28]

Knowing our luck we will get screwed out of hosting a playoff game.

It seems like the only way this is possible, within reason, is if the loser of the Big 10 championship game, the loser of the SECCG, AND Ohio State all stay above us in the rankings.

Seems like an unlikely scenario, but definitely possible that the seeding looks something like:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Notre Dame
6. Penn State
7. UGA
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee

Personally, I think the committee will allow the losers of championship games to hold their spots above us and we edge out Ohio State for the 8 seed.

 

[Dougie_D]

You're losing me dude. I have no idea what you're talking about. UGA doesn't have three losses and the committee certainly hasn't pontificated at this point on giving a Georgia a home game if they lose the championship game.

Yeah they did. Look at their CFP projected playoffs. They assume that every team wins out based on their ranking. If 2 teams play each other, 1 has to lose. They projected TX beating GA. TX gets the automatic as a 1 loss. Georgia becomes 3 loss but they are still ahead of TN because they beat us. That's why before OSU lost, they still had OSU with a 2 loss OVER Penn St as a 1 loss.

 

[UT97Vol]

Yeah they did. Look at their CFP projected playoffs. They assume that every team wins out based on their ranking. If 2 teams play each other, 1 has to lose. They projected TX beating GA. TX gets the automatic as a 1 loss. Georgia becomes 3 loss but they are still ahead of TN because they beat us.

No they don't. They rank them based on where they are today - not what might happen in the future. They don't forecast anything.

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

Yeah, SMU winning has no impact on us hosting. If they lose, Clemson gets a bye and SMU either gets booted for the Bammers or they fall behind us in top 12 which leaves us in the same spot.

It's all gonna come down to the committee either putting us ahead of OSU or a PSU, TX, or UGA getting blown out of their championship game and falling below us for us to host.

 

[Dougie_D]

It seems like the only way this is possible, within reason, is if the loser of the Big 10 championship game, the loser of the SECCG, AND Ohio State all stay above us in the rankings.

Seems like an unlikely scenario, but definitely possible that the seeding looks something like:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Notre Dame
6. Penn State
7. UGA
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee

Personally, I think the committee will allow the losers of championship games to hold their spots above us and we edge out Ohio State for the 8 seed.

As long as we are in 8 rankings, we have a shot. ZERO percent if outside 8 ranking. It will be hard for CFP to rank us 9 though. You are thinking somehow Boise St jumped 8 pts.

 

[Volbrando]

I wonder if Kent State would decline the invite..

Unless Oregon is way better than Georgia or Alabama, I feel like we are well prepared to compete against anyone.

I do as well.. I feel like we could beat anyone... but also could get beat by anyone. Would love a home game against any of them to start.

 

[Dougie_D]

Yeah, SMU winning has no impact on us hosting. If they lose, Clemson gets a bye and SMU either gets booted for the Bammers or they fall behind us in top 12 which leaves us in the same spot.

It's all gonna come down to the committee either putting us ahead of OSU or a PSU, TX, or UGA getting blown out of their championship game and falling below us for us to host.

The reality is that I don't want to take a chance of SMU losing and only dropping a few pts. What if they only lose to Clemson by 3 points? They had Miami ahead of Georgia. If they put SMU over Georgia I think it's worrisome.

 

[bpalmer28]

As long as we are in 8 rankings, we have a shot. ZERO percent if outside 8 ranking. It will be hard for CFP to rank us 9 though. You are thinking somehow Boise St jumped 8 pts.

This is seedlings, not rankings. In the new format, the 4 highest ranked conference champions get the top 4 seeds and a bye week. Boise State should finish the season ranked higher than Big 12 Champ, so I’ve got them as the 4th team with a bye. The next 4 will host.

 

[bpalmer28]

Yeah they did. Look at their CFP projected playoffs. They assume that every team wins out based on their ranking. If 2 teams play each other, 1 has to lose. They projected TX beating GA. TX gets the automatic as a 1 loss. Georgia becomes 3 loss but they are still ahead of TN because they beat us. That's why before OSU lost, they still had OSU with a 2 loss OVER Penn St as a 1 loss.

Those are ESPN projections, not committee projections. Pat McAffee went on a rant last week about how the committee refuses to help them with bracket projections and basically said the projections are meaningless

 

[UT97Vol]

The reality is that I don't want to take a chance of SMU losing and only dropping a few pts. What if they only lose to Clemson by 3 points? They had Miami ahead of Georgia. If they put SMU over Georgia I think it's worrisome.

What if. They either drop to 11, 12, or they're out. No bearing on us. Again, I don't really understand what you're trying to do here.

 

[Go47]

We could end up playing a home game as a 6th seed . . . Against Bama . . .

 

[LAVol1]

We could end up playing a home game as a 6th seed . . . Against Bama . . .

Can't see any scenario where Bama gets in.

 

[kckempf]

I'm projecting SMU to be ranked 5 and TN ranked 7th. If SMU wins I think every "projected ranked" 6-8 ranked are hosts. Notre Dame is a lock at 5 SEED. If SMU loses, they might still have SMU ahead of TN... TN is the only team in top 8 who can't play in their conference championship. SMU is a 2 loss ACC runner up. TN is 2 loss. I just feel like it's more about how they feel about SMU than anything.

If I'm wrong we will find out tomorrow, but none of the polls or projections I've find have SMU flipping us. I have seen projections putting us at 9 or 10 seed based on a 7 or 8 ranking, which doesn't agree with the polls but seems possible.

 

[bpalmer28]

Can't see any scenario where Bama gets in.

I could be missing something but if we use the AP and Coaches Poll as a baseline for the CFP rankings, Bama will be #11 when the new rankings come out with only one automatic qualifier (Big 12 champ) behind them. That would make Alabama the 12 seed if SMU wins the ACC.

It seems to me like they are in unless Clemson wins the ACC.

 

[UT97Vol]

I could be missing something but if we use the AP and Coaches Poll as a baseline for the CFP rankings, Bama will be #11 when the new rankings come out with only one automatic qualifier (Big 12 champ) behind them. That would make Alabama the 12 seed if SMU wins the ACC.

It seems to me like they are in unless Clemson wins the ACC.

Yep. Just realized Dougie’s whole post must’ve been about Alabama not us. Lol

 

[bpalmer28]

Miami is not competing in the ACC Championship game. They’re ranked behind us in both polls, too. SMU is behind us in both rankings and the projections, too. The only way they pass us is if they win, in which case they pass us either way. Because the Big Ten champ and the SEC champ are already above us and the other conference champs are already below us, our hosting comes down to whether we’re ahead of Ohio State, barring some major movement after the championship games that the committee has tried to suggest will not happen (I have my doubts).

This is how I'm processing my expectations as well.

It'll be interesting to see what will happen if Penn State and/or Georgia gets blown out in the conference championship. Penn State hasn't beat anyone, so I could see them dropping a spot or two with a loss. Georgia may have lost some favor by struggling with Georgia Tech. Honestly wouldn't be shocked by any order in the rankings between Tennessee, Ohio State, Penn State (if they lose), and Georgia (if they lose) - but I lean toward it coming down to the Tennessee and Ohio State jostling for the 8 seed. OSU and Tenn have almost identical SOS & SOR rankings, so I feel like OSU losing to Michigan at home to end the season gives us the edge. But we'll see.

 

[GBO18]

What a cluster of a thread.

 

[orangemadam]

Please Lord, make it stop. I'm getting a migraine!

 

[Cartervol]

The possibility of this crappy Clemson team getting a bye possibly shows they already need to tweak some stuff in this format.

 

[VolMarine1371]

The CFP just goes down the list of who's eligible next from their rankings based on who they think wins the CHAMP games.
For instance, here's how they ranked and then here's how they seeded with their projected playoff last week.
(X) means they won the champ
(O) means they loss the champ

1. ORE (X)
2. OSU (O)
3. TEXAS (X)
4. PENN ST
5. ND
6. MIAMI (X)
7. GA (O)
8. TN
9. SMU (O)
10. IND
11. BOISE ST(X)
12. CLEMSON
16. AZU (X)

Then this is how the rankings go after the PROJECTED. Georgia still gets nod because they were ahead of us in rankings.
1. ORE (X)
2. TEX (X)
3. MIAMI (X)
4. BOISE ST (X)
5. OSU
6.PENN ST
7. ND
8. GA
9. TN
10. SMU
11. IND
12. AZU (X)

Now let's say SMU moves up to #5, every champ becomes an upset , and we are at #7.
1. ORE (O)
2. TEXAS (0)
3. PENN ST(X)
4. ND
5. SMU(O)
6. GA (X)
7. TN
8.OSU
9. IND
10.BOISE ST (O)
11. SC
12. MIA
13. ASU (O)
16. CLEMSON (X)
17. B12 (X)
18. P5 (X)

How they might do seedings in this scenario: (SMU is ahead of us getting that 8 seed.)
1.PENN ST
2. GA
3. CLEMSON
4. B12
5. ORE
6. TEXAS
7. ND
8. SMU
9. TN
10. OSU
11. IND
12. G5

Now lets say SMU wins but there's still all these upsets:
1. PENN ST
2. SMU
3. GA
4. B12
5. ORE
6. TEX
7. ND
8. TN
-----

I don't think they'll move any CHAMP LOSERS from their CFP ranking.

So you’re saying after the upsets of this past week, and the teams that are ahead of Tennessee lose, you think the Vols are not moving out of the 9 seed? I will have to respectfully disagree with you.

The CFP committee has been pretty similar to what the AP/Coaches poll have been. In fact they have had Tennessee as same ranking last couple weeks as the coaches and only 1 off from the AP. So if that trend continues, I would expect to see UT around #6 or #7 ranking this week, which would mean a 7 or 8 seed, which both seeds host.

Also while they may not completely penalize a team for losing their conference game, I can see them moving them around depending on how the game is played out and who is the actual winner. Here is how I think the rankings will look like this week.

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn St
4. Notre Dame
5. UGA
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Arizona State
11. Boise State
12. Alabama
13. South Carolina
14. Miami

My seeding projections after conference championship.

1. Oregon
2. UGA
3. Arizona State
4. Boise State
5. Notre Dame
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. Penn State
9. Texas
10. Indiana
11. SMU
12. Clemson

Clemson gets the #12 seed as they will be a conference champion that’s ranked outside the top 12. Here’s scenario #2 with SMU winning the ACC and Clemson losing.

“Seedings for CFP”
1. Oregon
2. UGA
3. Arizona St
4. SMU
5. Notre Dame
6. TENNESSEE
7. Ohio State
8. Penn State
9. Texas
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Alabama

Either way how this shakes out, I like Tennessee hosting in a few short weeks.