I think we can take one more regular season loss and still feel pretty good about hosting in the NCAAs.
Here's how our resume holds up against the current 4/5 seeds in Creme's Bracketology based on some of the primary selection committee criteria (overall record, NET, SOS, quadrant records, competitiveness in losses, and head-to-head matchups):
Tennessee: 17-6 record, #12 NET, #4 NET SOS, 4-6 Q1, 4-0 Q2, 3.3 pts. average loss, 0-1 H2H (with games at Kentucky and vs. Ole Miss remaining)
Oklahoma: 18-6 record, #16 NET, #6 NET SOS, 4-6 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 13 pts. average loss, 2-1 H2H
NC State: 19-4 record, #18 NET, #18 NET SOS, 4-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 10.3 pts. average loss, 1-0 H2H (with game at Georgia Tech remaining)
Kentucky: 19-3 record, #19 NET, #39 NET SOS, 4-2 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 11.3 pts. average loss, 1-1 H2H (with game vs. Tennessee remaining)
Georgia Tech: 20-4 record, #25 NET, #65 NET SOS, 1-3 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 10 pts. average loss, 0-0 H2H (with game vs. NC State remaining)
Maryland: 19-5 record, #23 NET, #11 NET SOS, 4-4 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 13.4 pts. average loss, 1-0 H2H
Ole Miss: 16-7 record, #13 NET, #7 NET SOS, 4-6 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 6.1 pts. average loss, 1-2 H2H (with game at Tennessee remaining)
Michigan State: 18-5 record, #20 NET, #41 NET SOS, 3-3 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 8 pts. average loss, 0-1 H2H
Honestly, I'd put us at the top of this list, closer to being a #3 seed than not hosting. We have the highest NET and SOS of any of those teams. We are one of only three to not have a Q2 loss and no team there has more Q1 wins than us. We are one of only three teams to average single digit losses, and we're clearly the most competitive in losses of anyone. The only thing that stands out is that H2H record; certainly need to win one of those but ideally both.
I could easily see any of the 3-seed in Creme's bracket (TCU, Kansas State, UNC, and Ohio St.) faltering down the stretch and us moving up if we take care of business.
Update after the last two night's games (adding record against the projected 3-seeds in the H2H results):
Tennessee: 18-6 record, #11 NET, #4 NET SOS, 3-6 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 3.3 pts. average loss, 0-1 H2H (with games at Kentucky and vs. Ole Miss remaining)
Oklahoma: 18-6 record, #16 NET, #6 NET SOS, 4-6 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 13 pts. average loss, 2-1 H2H
NC State: 20-4 record, #19 NET, #26 NET SOS, 4-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 10.3 pts. average loss, 1-1 H2H (with games at UNC and at Georgia Tech remaining)
Kentucky: 19-4 record, #20 NET, #28 NET SOS, 4-3 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 13 pts. average loss, 1-2 H2H (with game vs. Tennessee remaining)
Georgia Tech: 20-5 record, #26 NET, #62 NET SOS, 1-3 Q1, 6-2 Q2, 9.4 pts. average loss, 1-0 H2H (with game vs. NC State remaining)
Maryland: 19-6 record, #28 NET, #10 NET SOS, 4-4 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 14.5 pts. average loss, 1-1 H2H (with game vs. Ohio State remaining)
Ole Miss: 17-7 record, #12 NET, #14 NET SOS, 4-6 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 6.1 pts. average loss, 1-2 H2H (with game at Tennessee remaining)
Michigan State: 19-5 record, #21 NET, #52 NET SOS, 3-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 8 pts. average loss, 0-1 H2H (with game at Ohio State remaining)
Adding the current projected 3 seeds to the mix:
TCU: 23-3 record, #9 NET, #55 NET SOS, 5-3 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 14.3 pts. average loss, 1-1 H2H
North Carolina: 22-4 record, #14 NET, #35 NET SOS, 3-2 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 7.3 pts. average loss, 1-1 H2H (with game vs. NC State remaining)
Kansas State: 23-3 record, #7 NET, #73 NET SOS, 2-2 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 17 pts. average loss, 1-0 H2H
Ohio State: 20-3 record, #15 NET, #44 NET SOS, 2-2 Q1, 7-0 Q2, 12.3 pts. average loss, 0-0 H2H (with games vs. Michigan St. and at Maryland remaining)
TCU and Kansas St. both still have to play Baylor and WVU - would be great for them to pick up some losses there. Ohio State has a tough final stretch and UNC seems likely to lose at least one or two more, too. If we win out and/or make noise in the SECT we'll be in a really good position to get a 3 seed.