Obama Jobs Speech to Congress

#51
#51
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#54
#54
From JP Morgan's Michael Feroli

Preview of tomorrow's policy talks

Tomorrow will bring two closely-followed speeches, one by Fed Chairman Bernanke, the other by President Obama. We expect the former will create much less news than the latter. Bernanke's 1:30pm address to the Minnesota Economics Club will discuss the economic outlook but likely deliver few clues about the actions to be considered at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting. The shift to a two-day meeting to air views could represent an attempt to re-affirm a sense of collegiality into the deliberations. Any strong signalling of a pre-ordained policy preference in tomorrow's speech could be seen as front-running the committee and at odds with the spirit of collegiality.

The President's speech at 7pm, before the Packers-Saints game, will be much more explicit about policy preferences, even as he is much less likely than Bernanke to see all of his preferences realized. Media reports indicate that the President will likely petition Congress for an additional $200-$300 billion of tax cuts and spending increases. The centerpiece of this will almost surely be an extension of the one-year, 2%-point reduction in payroll withholding taxes. With a price tag of around $110-$120 billion, this tax cut could represent as much as half of the dollar value of the President's proposals. Another significant proposal will likely be an extension of emergency unemployment benefits, which, like the payroll tax cut, is scheduled to lapse in January of next year. More generally, we see the aim of the proposed initiatives as largely to offset the impending fiscal drag scheduled for next year. As the table below shows, the expiration of the two above-mentioned programs, as well as the gradual phase-out of other temporary stimulus measures, implies a narrowing of the structural (i.e. non-cyclical) deficit of around $350 billion next year. Our estimates put the implied drag on GDP growth at over 1.5%. If the President were to get all he wanted, this would offset almost all of that drag.

Cynically, one could say this is merely pushing back the fiscal drag past the time of the next election. More constructively, one could argue that this is pushing back the fiscal drag to a point in time when household sector balance sheet repair has hopefully progressed enough that the private sector can generate self-sustaining growth momentum. Either way, the Republicans in the House are unlikely to be easily impressed by the President's arguments. None of the major programs proposed has received much support from Republicans, and if any were eventually passed it would probably only be after bruising negotiations later in the year. All in all, we anticipate that little will come out of tomorrow's speech to make us re-think the near-term outlook.
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#55
#55
I love it!

Gibson CEO to attend Obama's jobs speech, will be guest of Speaker Boehner - The Hill's Hillicon Valley

Henry Juszkiewicz, the CEO of Gibson Guitar, will attend President Obama's address to Congress on Thursday as a guest of Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.).

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) announced in a tweet that he will host the Gibson CEO in the Speaker's box.
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“Gibson Guitar is at the heart of this jobs debate, and is an example of exactly why President Obama has it wrong when it comes to getting our economy back on track," Blackburn said in a statement. "Big government doesn’t create jobs, small businesses like Gibson Guitar do.”
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:)
 
#60
#60
lawgator1 said:
Announcing some pro-business policies, like the smog thing. Proposing tax cuts for middle class be wrapped into super committee. Emphasizes need to promote infrastructure refurbishment.
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In other words, a 100% repeat of his previously failed policies. I also love how the administration is trying to sell it by saying that he's offsetting all of this spending with budget cuts. HELLO!!!! We're supposed to be cutting the hell out of the deficit, and this idiot is proposing that we basically eliminate what is now being suggested is $400 billion of budget cuts that would otherwise cut the deficit were they not paying for this idiot's lunacy.
 
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#63
#63
I love it - he will propose $450 billion in spending. In a couple weeks he'll say how he'll pay for it with the claim it will be deficit neutral. Seriously? Why not tell us now how it will be paid for if you've determined it will be deficit neutral.
 
#64
#64
He's already overplayed the don't play politics card. You're playing politics, everyone is.
 
#68
#68
Pass this bill, Pass this bill, Pass this bill blah, blah, blah..Wait! Can we see what's in this bill this time please before we pass it?????????
 
#69
#69
Isn't it discriminatory hiring to incentivize the hiring of those out of work for "x" time?
 
#73
#73
volinbham said:
Isn't it discriminatory hiring to incentivize the hiring of those out of work for "x" time?
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Probably not the smartest idea in the long run for the employer either. Not to stereotype, but somebody out of work for a whole year, on average, probably doesn't have the best job skills or is extremely picky about where they work. I can go get a second job as a waiter or at walmart this evening if I needed/wanted to and I wouldn't need to put down any of my past work or education to do it.
 
#75
#75
How the hell do you even prove that? I know college grads who can't find work can't file unemployment. Will this further incentivize companies not to hire them?
 
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