Obama Polling Better Than Palin in TN

#28
#28
No big surprise in the poll.
Obama will get between 38-45% of the vote in TN against any descent GOP candidate.
42% is about right for Obama, that's a long ways from winning the state.
If there is any surprise in the poll it's would be that 37% would support Palin.
Do the same poll with Romney or Huckabee and they both would destroy Obama.
 
#30
#30
droski said:
you think every member of the tea party woudl vote for her over all other republican candidates?
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No, of course not. I am sure that if she lost the GOP nomination and decided to run as an independent candidate, there would be the same debate had a la Ross Perot and splitting of the Republican vote decades ago.

But let's face it. There has already been some significant tension between the Tea Party members who got elected versus the mainstream GOP. They've been resolved, for the moment, but if it looks like the Tea Party is going to continue in harsher moments with the "Its our way or the highway" approach then a third party candidacy is entirely possible.
 
#31
#31
lawgator1 said:
No, of course not. I am sure that if she lost the GOP nomination and decided to run as an independent candidate, there would be the same debate had a la Ross Perot and splitting of the Republican vote decades ago.

But let's face it. There has already been some significant tension between the Tea Party members who got elected versus the mainstream GOP. They've been resolved, for the moment, but if it looks like the Tea Party is going to continue in harsher moments with the "Its our way or the highway" approach then a third party candidacy is entirely possible.
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i agree with you in that even a 5% vote for her could cost them the election, but i don't see the groundswell of support for her for pres that you do. perot was a different situation in that he attracted a lot of moderates that probably usually would have voted for the republican candidate.
 
#32
#32
droski said:
i agree with you in that even a 5% vote for her could cost them the election, but i don't see the groundswell of support for her for pres that you do. perot was a different situation in that he attracted a lot of moderates that probably usually would have voted for the republican candidate.
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Neither do I, but the Dems seem absolutely fixated (riveted, even) on her.
 
#34
#34
utvolpj said:
good then they'll never see it coming. Rope-a-dope style
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I've actually thought that, but continue to be puzzled as to why they are so concerned with her.

I believe its her Tea Party connections, but couldn't be certain.
 
#35
#35
Tenacious D said:
I've actually thought that, but continue to be puzzled as to why they are so concerned with her.

I believe its her Tea Party connections, but couldn't be certain.
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That and she energizes the voters. She's not presidential material, but she's still dangerous in her own right.
 
#36
#36
tigervol9802 said:
That and she energizes the voters. She's not presidential material, but she's still dangerous in her own right.
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I can see that, and agree that she's not presidential material (were she 4'11" and 220lbs, she'd still be governor of Alaska).

But she's dangerous to both parties, and nearly equally so, if you ask me: She could split the GOP vote, or lead the wave to curb federal spending (read: halt and rescind socialism).
 
#37
#37
droski said:
i agree with you in that even a 5% vote for her could cost them the election, but i don't see the groundswell of support for her for pres that you do. perot was a different situation in that he attracted a lot of moderates that probably usually would have voted for the republican candidate.
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I agree with you but think your logic is a little off in that Perot as you say took some moderates who would have voted for the GOP candidate. My point is that if Palin ran as a third party candidate 99.99999 % of the people who vote for her would have voted for the GOP candidate over Obama.

Virtually no one who votes for Palin would be defecting from Obama.

So, unlike Perot, who presumably took at least a little from possible Clinton supporters, in this case all of her support would be at the cost of the GOP.

More important, Palin would be running on the back of a very conservative grassroots movement that is highly motivated. That is, if she were to have the support of, say, 30% of the GOP right now and at primary time, but lose to a consensus mainstream candidate like Romney, if she ran a fairly significant hard core group of her Tea Party supporters would stick with her.

Whereas Perot got 18.9 % of the popular vote (I hadn't remembered that he got that much, but he did) I think Palin could get a significantly higher percentage, and ALL of it at the cost of the GOP candidate.

The other point is that, if that situation developed and if the economy does improve, I can see Palin and the Tea Party rationalizing it that the odds of beating Obama aren't that great, anyway, and so why not make a statement in 2012 to anchor the GOP further to the right for 2016.
 
#38
#38
"I can see Palin and the Tea Party rationalizing it that the odds of beating Obama aren't that great, anyway"

you are officially losing it.
 
#39
#39
droski said:
"I can see Palin and the Tea Party rationalizing it that the odds of beating Obama aren't that great, anyway"

you are officially losing it.
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Yeah, they've built the entirety of their movement on deft political calculations to this point.

He also continues to embellish his fantasy that the Tea Party's number one target is the GOP, and not the Dems.
 
#40
#40
Tenacious D said:
I can see that, and agree that she's not presidential material (were she 4'11" and 220lbs, she'd still be governor of Alaska).

But she's dangerous to both parties, and nearly equally so, if you ask me: She could split the GOP vote, or lead the wave to curb federal spending (read: halt and rescind socialism).
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She very easily could be just as dangerous to the GOP. As moronic as she sounds at times though, she's smart enough to know that if the GOP divides and she is a cause that long term it is probably bad for her. It would be much better if she could be the person that keeps everyone tied together.
 
#41
#41
Tenacious D said:
Yeah, they've built the entirety of their movement on deft political calculations to this point.

He also continues to embellish his fantasy that the Tea Party's number one target is the GOP, and not the Dems.
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I think the Tea Party's ONLY target is Obama.

While fiscal conservatism has had its own network of people for some time, the current iteration of that in the form of the Tea Party is all about people being unable to live with Obama as POTUS. If McCain had been elected and done exactly the same things as Obama, the Tea Party would not exist.



tigervol9802 said:
She very easily could be just as dangerous to the GOP. As moronic as she sounds at times though, she's smart enough to know that if the GOP divides and she is a cause that long term it is probably bad for her. It would be much better if she could be the person that keeps everyone tied together.
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I am tempted to agree with you that she would realize that running in 2012 as a third party candidate would doom her in 2016. But I am a) not entirely sure that is true; and b) not entirely sure she would believe that.
 
#42
#42
lawgator1 said:
I am tempted to agree with you that she would realize that running in 2012 as a third party candidate would doom her in 2016. But I am a) not entirely sure that is true; and b) not entirely sure she would believe that.
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I really don't think she wants to be President.
 
#43
#43
Channeling+His+Inner+Reagan-500x190.jpg


aWdBs.jpg


obamacarter.jpg
 
#45
#45
lawgator1 said:
I think the Tea Party's ONLY target is Obama.

While fiscal conservatism has had its own network of people for some time, the current iteration of that in the form of the Tea Party is all about people being unable to live with Obama as POTUS. If McCain had been elected and done exactly the same things as Obama, the Tea Party would not exist.

I am tempted to agree with you that she would realize that running in 2012 as a third party candidate would doom her in 2016. But I am a) not entirely sure that is true; and b) not entirely sure she would believe that.
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I somewhat agree - Obama's election galvanized them, it seems. But so would've HRC's election, too.

He might be the focal point, but this movement likely outlives his administration, in some fashion - and likely larger than it is now.
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#46
#46
lawgator1 said:
I think the Tea Party's ONLY target is Obama.

While fiscal conservatism has had its own network of people for some time, the current iteration of that in the form of the Tea Party is all about people being unable to live with Obama as POTUS. If McCain had been elected and done exactly the same things as Obama, the Tea Party would not exist.

I am tempted to agree with you that she would realize that running in 2012 as a third party candidate would doom her in 2016. But I am a) not entirely sure that is true; and b) not entirely sure she would believe that.
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there you go again, trotting out the old canard that the Tea Party movement is inherently racist. We're still waiting for you to prove that.
 
#47
#47
bam15 said:
Surprise.
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No. When you subject a person to a negative propaganda campaign that Goebbels would be proud of... it is no surprise at all when you get to come back and report that their reputation and popularity have been destroyed. Of course then if that was your plan you can go back and compare that person to someone who you've effectively run a propaganda campaign in favor of and declare your guy the clear winner.

I am not particularly supportive of Palin for President or any other national office/position. She's fine doing what she's doing. Maybe she can run for Senate at some point.

Bottom line: if Obama had been subjected to the attacks and character assassination that Palin has, his popularity would be in the 30's.
 
#48
#48
lawgator1 said:
I think the Tea Party's ONLY target is Obama.

While fiscal conservatism has had its own network of people for some time, the current iteration of that in the form of the Tea Party is all about people being unable to live with Obama as POTUS. If McCain had been elected and done exactly the same things as Obama, the Tea Party would not exist.





I am tempted to agree with you that she would realize that running in 2012 as a third party candidate would doom her in 2016. But I am a) not entirely sure that is true; and b) not entirely sure she would believe that.
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Sure he is. Hes black. I doubt it has anything to do with his agenda.
 
#49
#49
lawgator1 said:
I think the Tea Party's ONLY target is Obama.

While fiscal conservatism has had its own network of people for some time, the current iteration of that in the form of the Tea Party is all about people being unable to live with Obama as POTUS. If McCain had been elected and done exactly the same things as Obama, the Tea Party would not exist.
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If you actually believe this then you are a bigger dupe than even I believed.

The Tea Party exists PRIMARILY because the GOP failed to live up to its stated ideals and commitments. I would expect that McCain is not very popular amongst TPer's since he's the ring leader of the compromisers along with Lindsay Graham. I can all but guarantee that TPer's would name Republicans like Graham as a bigger problem than Obama.

Obama is opposed because he's the personification of MOST of the ideals that the TP stands against. It isn't personal. It certainly isn't race based.

But I guess who would you statists be if you didn't demonize those who you cannot beat in the market place of ideas.
 
#50
#50
droski said:
not sure. most people still see mormons as a bit of a cult and his record of spending isn't exactly antiobama.
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I will vote 3rd party if he's the nominee.

I have no problem voting for a Mormon. I have a BIG problem voting for someone who flipped as fast as he did on the issues of abortion and socialized medicine. As governor, he's liberal. Runs for President, all of a sudden he's a born again true conservative.

It isn't even necessarily the issues. I just want someone whose beliefs and principles are solid conservative-libertarian and not subject to the convenience of the moment.
 
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