Odds on winning the S.E.C. Championship

#52
#52
bamawriter said:
Rooster,

You are confusing mathematical odds (the likelihood of something occurring expressed as a fraction or a percentage) with gambling odds (the amount of money that will be returned based upon the initial investment).

When Bama's chances of winning the SEC are listed at 3/2, that is not saying there is a 66.6% chance of that occurring (especially because the proper way to write 66.6% as a fraction is "2/3"). What it means is that if you place a $2 bet on Alabama to win the SEC, you will receive $3 in return if they do.
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Dear Lord, not another "one". It is 60% btw, not 66%. And no I do not confuse anything. Geeze louise already:


If someone says you are 3 to 2, they can mean several things depending on the context.

First, and this is the common usage, if they say you are a 3 to 2 favorite, that means you will win 3 times for every 2 times you lose. Or, you will win 3/5 times (60%)

Second, if they say the odds are 3 to 2 AGAINST you or you a 3 to 2 underdog, then that means you will win 2 times for every 3 times you lose or 2/5 (40%). More commonly, though, this is referred to being a 2 to 3 underdog.

Third, and this is completely different from the first two becuase it doesnt have anything to do with winning or losing, is when your payout is 3 to 2. That means, if you win a bet (regardless of actual winning odds), you will receive a payout 3 dollars for every 2 you bet (plus your original bet back). For instance, if you bet $2, and were receiving 3 to 2 payout odds, you would receive $3 (winnings) + $2 (original bet) = $5 if you won the bet.

Summary: if someone just say "You are 3 to 2." that probably means the first scenario -- meaning the outcome will be favorable about 60% of the time (3/5).
 
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#53
#53
Rooster1 said:
Dear Lord, not another "one". It is 60% btw, not 66%. And no I do not confuse anything. Geeze louise already:


If someone says you are 3 to 2, they can mean several things depending on the context.

First, and this is the common usage, if they say you are a 3 to 2 favorite, that means you will win 3 times for every 2 times you lose. Or, you will win 3/5 times (60%)

Second, if they say the odds are 3 to 2 AGAINST you or you a 3 to 2 underdog, then that means you will win 2 times for every 3 times you win or 2/5 (40%). More commonly, though, this is referred to being a 2 to 3 underdog.
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No one would ever use this terminology in a one-on-one game situation because it lacks logic. That's why bookmakers don't place a betting line on individual games; they use point spreads.

You are looking at this incorrectly.
 
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#54
#54
bamawriter said:
No one would ever use this terminology in a one-on-one game situation because it lacks logic. That's why bookmakers don't place a betting line on individual games; they use point spreads.

You are looking at this incorrectly.
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BW, Rooster is explaining it correctly. You need to go back to Bama and take remedial math. Hope Rooster is a UT grad.
 
#58
#58
Sandvol said:
Must not have paid attention in class.
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By Rooster's reasoning, the numbers in the OP should equal out to 100%. They don't. Heck, the odds for the first four alone equal 120%.

He's confusing statistical odds with betting line odds. You don't write the two the same way.
 
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#59
#59
bamawriter said:
Rooster,

You are confusing mathematical odds (the likelihood of something occurring expressed as a fraction or a percentage) with gambling odds (the amount of money that will be returned based upon the initial investment).

When Bama's chances of winning the SEC are listed at 3/2, that is not saying there is a 66.6% chance of that occurring (especially because the proper way to write 66.6% as a fraction is "2/3"). What it means is that if you place a $2 bet on Alabama to win the SEC, you will receive $3 in return if they do.
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But what that is saying is that if this Bama team played against all the other teams in the SEC for 5 years and assuming the same teams with the same personnel then Bama wins 3 of the 5 years. That is 60% of the time. That is what Rooster is trying to tell you.
 
#60
#60
Sandvol said:
But what that is saying is that if this Bama team played against all the other teams in the SEC for 5 years and assuming the same teams with the same personnel then Bama wins 3 of the 5 years. That is 60% of the time. That is what Rooster is trying to tell you.
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But that isn't what a 3-2 betting line is suggesting, nor is that what 8188 was positing with his math. If that was the case, there's no way that Florida would be at 9-1while Vandy is at 250-1.

Though I should probably make clear that I'm not commenting on whether or not 8188's reasoning is correct, only that his math is.
 
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#61
#61
bamawriter said:
But that isn't what a 3-2 betting line is suggesting, nor is that what 8188 was positing with his math. If that was the case, there's no way that Florida would be at 9-1while Vandy is at 250-1.

Though I should probably make clear that I'm not commenting on whether or not 8188's reasoning is correct, only that his math is.
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Yes it is. That's exactly what a 2/3 betting line is suggesting. You bet 3 you get back 2. Odds makers believe your bet would win 60% of the time so you're only paid 2.
 
#62
#62
Sandvol said:
Yes it is. That's exactly what a 2/3 betting line is suggesting. You bet 3 you get back 2. Odds makers believe your bet would win 60% of the time so you're only paid 2.
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I have always considered betting odds the same as suggested by Bama writer.
 
#66
#66
Sandvol said:
Yes it is. That's exactly what a 2/3 betting line is suggesting. You bet 3 you get back 2. Odds makers believe your bet would win 60% of the time so you're only paid 2.
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That isn't how lines are set. They are set based upon the supposed mentality of the betting public. Your suggestion should mean that every one of the fourteen possiblilities would have odds totalling 100%. They don't.
 
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#69
#69
Does this take into account Auburn's starting QB's recent arrest and his punishment of missing their first scrimmage and having to pay for his own gas for a month?
 
#70
#70
bamawriter said:
I have no personal or familial connection to the University of Tennessee. If you base your fandom solely on the state you reside in, then you are much more of a bandwagon fan than I am.
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I base my "fandom" on supporting the University I attended and graduated from. I was born and raised in Knoxville. You sound like an 85%er.
 
#73
#73
bamawriter said:
That isn't how lines are set. They are set based upon the supposed mentality of the betting public. Your suggestion should mean that every one of the fourteen possiblilities would have odds totalling 100%. They don't.
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No, they add up to a lot more than 100%. That's how Vegas makes their money.
 
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