Official Bubble Watch Thread

#476
#476
BruinVol said:
The projection I see has them winning one of those finishing with a 29 rpi. If they lose that one game they would be 17-13 and an rpi in the mid 30s I would guess. Can't see them being left out with that
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Probably not, but who's to say they don't slip up elsewhere or one of those wins become top 50? 4 weeks outs seems a bit premature to worry about a flawed system
 
#477
#477
bleedingTNorange said:
Probably not, but who's to say they don't slip up elsewhere or one of those wins become top 50? 4 weeks outs seems a bit premature to worry about a flawed system
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I am not complaining about the system especially since it favors the Vols big time this season. I am all for SOS and RPI being the end all be all by golly.
 
#478
#478
bleedingTNorange said:
That's my point, I'm not sure it's happened, so complaining that it's a flawed system without evidence of the end result supporting that doesn't seem right?
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Didn't necessarily say flawed system. I said the RPI formula is flawed. But the Committee is different every year, and some years they have been enamored with the RPI number alone. Fans do too. "They had a high RPI, they have to be in." I don't use math in my profession, but if you break down that formula, it's flawed. I would bet thought that there have been very few, if any, power 5 team at 40 or higher that has been left out.
 
#479
#479
VolGee4 said:
Didn't necessarily say flawed system. I said the RPI formula is flawed. But the Committee is different every year, and some years they have been enamored with the RPI number alone. Fans do too. "They had a high RPI, they have to be in." I don't use math in my profession, but if you break down that formula, it's flawed. I would bet thought that there have been very few, if any, power 5 team at 40 or higher that has been left out.
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That's my point, typically top 50 and you're in,45 and it's a lock...has there been any teams without a top 50 win hit that mark? If not, or if there's only been a few rare cases, then maybe it's not all that flawed.
 
#481
#481
It's getting close to start evaluating the NIT bracketology. If TN goes 3-5 they're not a lock for the NIT. TN probably wants as many as possible from the SEC to make it into the NCAAT. The SEC has 11 or 12 within reach of both tournaments combined. We might need to be pulling for the other 7 teams with 11-14 wins to be losing and the 4 with 17-18 wins to be locks for the NCAAT.
 
#482
#482
Updated seed list:

Illinois State
Oklahoma State
Michigan State
Iowa State
Kansas State
Marquette
Clemson
Arkansas
Miami
Syracuse
Indiana
California
TCU
Wake Forest
---------------------------
Wichita State
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
Texas Tech
Michigan
Tennessee
Georgia Tech
Georgetown
Nc State
 
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#483
#483
Today's games:

Clemson vs. Florida State
Indiana vs. Wisconsin
Norte Dame vs. North Carolina
Colorado vs. California
 
#484
#484
So doing a little homework on each of these teams, all per RPI forecast...
Clemson
Arkansas
Marquette
Miami
Syracuse
Indiana
California
TCU
Wake Forest
---------------------------
Wichita State
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
Texas Tech
Michigan
Tennessee
Georgia Tech
Georgetown
Nc State
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Expected records RPI and SOS...

Clemson: 18-12(8-10) RPI:48 SOS:23
Arkansas: 21-10(10-8) RPI: 46 SOS:63
Marquette: 18-12(9-9) RPI:66 SOS:55
Miami: 18-12(8-10) RPI:62 SOS:47
Syracuse: 18-13(10-8) RPI:72 SOS:39
Indiana: 19-12(9-9) RPI:58 SOS:36
California: 20-10(11-7) RPI:46 SOS:52
TCU: 18-12(8-10) RPI:57 SOS:29
Wake Forest: 17-13(8-10) RPI:42 SOS:13
Wichita State: 26-4(17-1) RPI:37 SOS:154
Rhode Island: 21-9(13-5) RPI:34 SOS:53
Seton Hall: 18-12(8-10) RPI:55 SOS:42
Texas Tech: 19-12(7-11) RPI:100 SOS:86
Michigan: 18-13(8-10) RPI:65 SOS:38
Tennessee: 16-14(9-9) RPI:60 SOS:16
Georgia Tech: 16-14(8-10) RPI:94 SOS:49
Georgetown: 16-15(7-11) RPI:69 SOS:12
Nc State: 16-15(5-13) RPI:101 SOS:43
 
#485
#485
bleedingTNorange said:
So doing a little homework on each of these teams, all per RPI forecast...

Expected records RPI and SOS...

Clemson: 18-12(8-10) RPI:48 SOS:23
Arkansas: 21-10(10-8) RPI: 46 SOS:63
Marquette: 18-12(9-9) RPI:66 SOS:55
Miami: 18-12(8-10) RPI:62 SOS:47
Syracuse: 18-13(10-8) RPI:72 SOS:39
Indiana: 19-12(9-9) RPI:58 SOS:36
California: 20-10(11-7) RPI:46 SOS:52
TCU: 18-12(8-10) RPI:57 SOS:29
Wake Forest: 17-13(8-10) RPI:42 SOS:13
Wichita State: 26-4(17-1) RPI:37 SOS:154
Rhode Island: 21-9(13-5) RPI:34 SOS:53
Seton Hall: 18-12(8-10) RPI:55 SOS:42
Texas Tech: 19-12(7-11) RPI:100 SOS:86
Michigan: 18-13(8-10) RPI:65 SOS:38
Tennessee: 16-14(9-9) RPI:60 SOS:16
Georgia Tech: 16-14(8-10) RPI:94 SOS:49
Georgetown: 16-15(7-11) RPI:69 SOS:12
Nc State: 16-15(5-13) RPI:101 SOS:43
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So with my cut line saying 9 spots left, if everything held serve(I'm aware it wont), you'd have to think: Clemson, Arkansas, Indiana, California, TCU, Wake Forest, Wichita State, Rhode Island and Seton Hall would be the 9. Obviously at 16-14(9-9) none of us expect NCAAT, but I do think it shows that a Tennessee 17-13(10-8) RPI:48 SOS:16 would likely get in above some of those teams.
 
#488
#488
bleedingTNorange said:
So with my cut line saying 9 spots left, if everything held serve(I'm aware it wont), you'd have to think: Clemson, Arkansas, Indiana, California, TCU, Wake Forest, Wichita State, Rhode Island and Seton Hall would be the 9. Obviously at 16-14(9-9) none of us expect NCAAT, but I do think it shows that a Tennessee 17-13(10-8) RPI:48 SOS:16 would likely get in above some of those teams.
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You think that one extra win is worth 12 rpi places for Tenn?
 
#489
#489
People had us at or next to last in sec. To even be in the talk at this point is a testament to CRB's coaching ability. We were 15-19 and 6-12 in sec last year We have 5 sec wins already with 8 to go. To even make the NIT would be vast improvement over last year.
 
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#490
#490
dougvolfan said:
People had us at or next to last in sec. To even be in the talk at this point is a testament to CRB's coaching ability. We were 15-19 and 6-12 in sec last year We have 5 sec wins already with 8 to go. To even make the NIT would be vast improvement over last year.
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I think most would agree with this. The problem is that we SHOULD have a realistic shot if we play like we know we can.

So far we've blown 12+ point leads against Arkansas, @Ole Miss and now @MSU. We honestly should be at 7-8 wins in SEC instead of 5.
 
#491
#491
I think we can win 5-6 out of final eight which would put us at 17-13 or 18-12. I forgot Chaminade doesn't count due to non div1. We would then need at least 2 in sec tourney for a shot at ncaa.
 
#492
#492
iKrager said:
I think most would agree with this. The problem is that we SHOULD have a realistic shot if we play like we know we can.

So far we've blown 12+ point leads against Arkansas, @Ole Miss and now @MSU. We honestly should be at 7-8 wins in SEC instead of 5.
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If you saw Florida embarrass the one and dones last night, you might have an idea what our team could be like as Jrs and Srs.
 
#494
#494
bleedingTNorange said:
Honestly I'm not sure of NIT's selecfion processing, if it's like the NCAAT then I would think so...but if they're more concerned about just wins then probably not.
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It's largely the same, but a little bit weird. There's a committee that's trying to pick the best teams, but I'm not sure they're as concerned with RPI and SOS as the NCAA committee is. Regardless, if we're getting pub as a bubble team in the final week, we'll get into the NIT (assuming we don't make the NCAAs, obviously). I can't remember one of those teams ever not getting into the NIT. If we fall back a bit and are off the radar, it is possible that we get passed over by the NIT, depending on our record.
 
#495
#495
BruinVol said:
You think that one extra win is worth 12 rpi places for Tenn?
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Definitely seems tough to think that 1 game would be that big of an impact on RPI, if we are 15-14 maybe it's around 54, heading into that final game...6 spots still seems a little much though.
 
#497
#497
bleedingTNorange said:
If the "eye test" is truly a thing...Clemson is trailing Florida State by 50 with 3 minutes remaining
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The ACC is psuedo strong this year.

.. thinking about it, the entire NCAA doesn't seem as particularly strong this year. Really feels like anybody could lose to/beat anybody.
 
#498
#498
nirwin said:
It's largely the same, but a little bit weird. There's a committee that's trying to pick the best teams, but I'm not sure they're as concerned with RPI and SOS as the NCAA committee is. Regardless, if we're getting pub as a bubble team in the final week, we'll get into the NIT (assuming we don't make the NCAAs, obviously). I can't remember one of those teams ever not getting into the NIT. If we fall back a bit and are off the radar, it is possible that we get passed over by the NIT, depending on our record.
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They have made some changes the last few years. I believe the NCAAT committee has a list of first four out, and those become the top 4 seeds in the NIT. Then, if a team wins the regular season conference title but loses the tournament championship and doesn't get in, they are automatically in the NIT. They wanted to reward regular season success. So, that could take a few spots that would normally be given to other schools. The NCAA took over the NIT several years back, so it allowed them to coordinate this.
 
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#499
#499
bleedingTNorange said:
Today's games:

Clemson vs. Florida State
Indiana vs. Wisconsin
Norte Dame vs. North Carolina
Colorado vs. California
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I can't believe that Indiana has lost 14 consecutive games at Wisconsin. It's been a long time now since the General and the perfect season. I hope that Duke struggles as much or more after Coach K.
 
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