Official Bubble Watch Thread

#454
#454
BruinVol said:
If the Vols were to falter Arkansas might fit your question here.
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It could, but you're missing the RPI question I asked that went with it? You're also assuming the other 3 wins they have that are 51-60 won't crack the top 50...while 1 that is top 50 won't stay top 50?
 
#455
#455
bleedingTNorange said:
It could, but you're missing the RPI question I asked that went with it? You're also assuming the other 3 wins they have that are 51-60 won't crack the top 50...while 1 that is top 50 won't stay top 50?
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No the rpi wasn't a part of that post but that's ok.

Let's hope the Vols don't falter and it doesn't matter.
 
#456
#456
VolGee4 said:
This is why the NCAA is going to other metrics. RPI is flawed. I think KenPom has them at 51.
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Could be something to watch for sure, think 44 is the best RPI to ever be left out of the field, Arkansas would have to go 4-4 down the stretch to reach that mark. I'm betting they get in.
 
#458
#458
bleedingTNorange said:
When Arkansas no longer has a single top 50 win AND makes the field let me know
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Fingers crossed it doesn't happen.

It should be mathematically impossible to have zero top 50 wins, play a SOS worse than 50 and end up with an rpi better than 50 but it appears that is possible for Arkansas
 
#459
#459
BruinVol said:
Fingers crossed it doesn't happen.

It should be mathematically impossible to have zero top 50 wins, play a SOS worse than 50 and end up with an rpi better than 50 but it appears that is possible for Arkansas
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As you probably know, the RPI doesn't factor who you beat. You could beat the 18 worst teams on your schedule, lose to 12 that are all top 25 and will have a decent RPI. Flawed index.
 
#460
#460
VolGee4 said:
As you probably know, the RPI doesn't factor who you beat. You could beat the 18 worst teams on your schedule, lose to 12 that are all top 25 and will have a decent RPI. Flawed index.
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And that's why the committee factors in SOS, see South Carolina last season.

Regardless of flawed or not it's what the committee continues to use year in and year out.
 
#461
#461
BruinVol said:
Fingers crossed it doesn't happen.

It should be mathematically impossible to have zero top 50 wins, play a SOS worse than 50 and end up with an rpi better than 50 but it appears that is possible for Arkansas
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I agree, but until the formula is changed or committee dismissed it then you've gotta go with it
 
#462
#462
bleedingTNorange said:
I agree, but until the formula is changed or committee dismissed it then you've gotta go with it
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I don't really disagree with the formula. SOS does come into play with the RPI. I am interested to keep following Arkansas and it's RPI
 
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#463
#463
bleedingTNorange said:
And that's why the committee factors in SOS, see South Carolina last season.

Regardless of flawed or not it's what the committee continues to use year in and year out.
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SOS still doesn't show who you beat. It's part of the RPI formula. You then have to break it down to wins against the top 50/100. This year it is Wake Forest and Arkansas. High RPI's but no big wins.
 
#464
#464
VolGee4 said:
SOS still doesn't show who you beat. It's part of the RPI formula. You then have to break it down to wins against the top 50/100. This year it is Wake Forest and Arkansas. High RPI's but no big wins.
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Good find on Wake Forest. Zero top 50 wins with only three more chances to get one.
 
#465
#465
VolGee4 said:
SOS still doesn't show who you beat. It's part of the RPI formula. You then have to break it down to wins against the top 50/100. This year it is Wake Forest and Arkansas. High RPI's but no big wins.
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I get that, but what is your ultimate point? That those teams shouldn't get in, or won't get in? Unfortunately it's the committees decision and they use those metrics and criteria, teams like Arkansas and WF typically get in.
 
#470
#470
bleedingTNorange said:
I get that, but what is your ultimate point? That those teams shouldn't get in, or won't get in? Unfortunately it's the committees decision and they use those metrics and criteria, teams like Arkansas and WF typically get in.
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Yea, it's wrong. Just because a number says something doesn't mean they should be automatic. Wake Forest is not worthy of anything. They have beaten no one. They benefit from playing a tough schedule and beat not one of their "tough" games.

You mix a tough schedule with weak OOC games on the road. You go .500 and win the road games, and that's a recipe for a high RPI. It doesn't mean you are a good team.
 
#472
#472
VolGee4 said:
Yea, it's wrong. Just because a number says something doesn't mean they should be automatic. Wake Forest is not worthy of anything. They have beaten no one. They benefit from playing a tough schedule and beat not one of their "tough" games.

You mix a tough schedule with weak OOC games on the road. You go .500 and win the road games, and that's a recipe for a high RPI. It doesn't mean you are a good team.
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Like I told Bruin, if they don't get a top 50 win there's a chance they find themselves on the outside anyways...how many P5 teams have gotten an at large bid without a top 50 win?
 
#474
#474
bleedingTNorange said:
And if they don't they'll find themselves in an interesting spot, so could take care of itself.
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The projection I see has them winning one of those finishing with a 29 rpi. If they lose that one game they would be 17-13 and an rpi in the mid 30s I would guess. Can't see them being left out with that
 
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