Official Bubble Watch Thread

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#1,026
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#1,027
#1,027
bleedingTNorange said:
Vols fall one spot back in Lunardi's updated bracket, go from last team in to first team out

Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

Only spot we vary is I have Wake Forest out and Clemson in, he has Clemson in and Wake out.
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Clemson is going to play itself right off the bubble in very short order, and I definitely think that Wake Forest has an unquestionably superior resume to Clemson.

The committee isn't going to give an at-large bid to a team that's probably going to end their conference slate close hovering around .300 when their banner wins comprised largely of South Carolina and UNC Wilmington.
 
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#1,028
TrumpedUpVol said:
Clemson is going to play itself right off the bubble in very short order, and I definitely think that Wake Forest has an unquestionably superior resume to Clemson.

The committee isn't going to give an at-large bid to a team that's probably going to end their conference slate close hovering around .300 when their banner wins comprised largely of South Carolina and UNC Wilmington.
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Didn't they beat South Carolina without thornwell?
 
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#1,031
BruinVol said:
I think it does. Top 10 schedule and winning record in top 5 conference is deserving imo.
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The problem is that everyone here keeps citing RPI and SOS metrics.

You can't play a top10 schedule, lose 95% of the tough games, and expect to make it in.

Teams like VT, Syracuse, and Clemson, Marquette, Seton Hall, and Indiana have better wins.

Maybe their RPIs and SOS aren't that high, but they have beaten more bubble teams and more teams that are securely in the field than UT has.



UT has 2 decent wins on the entire resume: Kentucky and Kansas State.
And losses to other bubble-like teams in Arkansas, GT, UGA, Chatanooga.

Plus, playing LSU and Mizzou down the stretch here will drop the RPI, even with Ws.
 
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#1,032
v011s said:
The problem is that everyone here keeps citing RPI and SOS metrics.

You can't play a top10 schedule, lose 95% of the tough games, and expect to make it in.

Teams like VT, Syracuse, and Clemson, Marquette, Seton Hall, and Indiana have better wins.

Maybe their RPIs and SOS aren't that high, but they have beaten more bubble teams and more teams that are securely in the field than UT has.



UT has 2 decent wins on the entire resume: Kentucky and Kansas State.
And losses to other bubble-like teams in Arkansas, GT, UGA, Chatanooga.

Plus, playing LSU and Mizzou down the stretch here will drop the RPI, even with Ws.
Click to expand...

Tenn demolished GT.
 
#1,036
#1,036
Matrix updated today...

Vols 2nd team out

Last 6 In:
Syracuse
Michigan
Seton Hall
Marquette
Arkansas
Illinois State

First 6 Out:
Wake Forest
Tennessee
Indiana
Georgia Tech
Rhode Island
Clemson
 
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#1,037
#1,037
v011s said:
The problem is that everyone here keeps citing RPI and SOS metrics.

You can't play a top10 schedule, lose 95% of the tough games, and expect to make it in.

Teams like VT, Syracuse, and Clemson, Marquette, Seton Hall, and Indiana have better wins.

Maybe their RPIs and SOS aren't that high, but they have beaten more bubble teams and more teams that are securely in the field than UT has.



UT has 2 decent wins on the entire resume: Kentucky and Kansas State.
And losses to other bubble-like teams in Arkansas, GT, UGA, Chatanooga.

Plus, playing LSU and Mizzou down the stretch here will drop the RPI, even with Ws.
Click to expand...

While your overall point is valid, it's not as bad as you suggest. Virginia Tech and Seton Hall have the same number of top 50 wins as UT (2). Virginia Tech has a better record against the top 100. Clemson, Marquette, and Indiana all just have one more win against the top 50 as UT. UT has more wins in the top 100 than Indiana. It's all very close, and usually the RPI and SOS break the tie. We still have wins against GT, OM, Auburn, Vandy, and A&M that are top 100. ETSU is close.

Out of all those, I think Syracuse probably has the best resume. We just need to win 4 and let's see how it falls.
 
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VolGee4 said:
While your overall point is valid, it's not as bad as you suggest. Virginia Tech and Seton Hall have the same number of top 50 wins as UT (2). Virginia Tech has a better record against the top 100. Clemson, Marquette, and Indiana all just have one more win against the top 50 as UT. UT has more wins in the top 100 than Indiana. It's all very close, and usually the RPI and SOS break the tie. We still have wins against GT, OM, Auburn, Vandy, and A&M that are top 100. ETSU is close.

Out of all those, I think Syracuse probably has the best resume. We just need to win 4 and let's see how it falls.
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lol
VT's "Top50" wins are against Duke and Virginia.
Essentially Top12 teams in the eyes of the committee.
Which are 2 wins better than UT's best.

Same for Syracuse. 8 Top100 wins with 2 Top12 wins.

Seton Hall's Top50 wins are at neutral sites.
They are 7th place in a great conference and not currently 7th place in the cruddy SEC.




I guess I'm raining on the parade, but no one should be angry if UT is left out. Barring wins against UK and SCe.
 
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#1,039
v011s said:
lol
VT's "Top50" wins are against Duke and Virginia.
Essentially Top12 teams in the eyes of the committee.
Which are 2 wins better than UT's best.

Same for Syracuse. 8 Top100 wins with 2 Top12 wins.

Seton Hall's Top50 wins are at neutral sites.
They are 7th place in a great conference and not currently 7th place in the cruddy SEC.




I guess I'm raining on the parade, but no one should be angry if UT is left out. Barring wins against UK and SCe.
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Against Duke minus their best player though. If we're going to beat up Clemson for beating USCe without Thornwell, we have to acknowledge that VT beat Duke without Allen.

Fwiw, I agree, people shouldn't be upset if Tennessee is left out. They missed a lot of opportunities to pave their own way.
 
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#1,040
#1,040
v011s said:
lol
VT's "Top50" wins are against Duke and Virginia.
Essentially Top12 teams in the eyes of the committee.
Which are 2 wins better than UT's best.

Same for Syracuse. 8 Top100 wins with 2 Top12 wins.

Seton Hall's Top50 wins are at neutral sites.
They are 7th place in a great conference and not currently 7th place in the cruddy SEC.




I guess I'm raining on the parade, but no one should be angry if UT is left out. Barring wins against UK and SCe.
Click to expand...

I never said that I would be angry if we were left out. I simply showed how comparable the resumes are. You don't need to justify it. I explained it.

Based on the seedings released by the committee, UK and UVA were 3 seeds, and Duke was a 4. That doesn't quite line up with what you were saying. But that's splitting hairs, which is probably why the RPI and SOS get used.

UF beat Seton Hall, and Seton Hall beat South Carolina without its best player. The bottom of that conference is not good.
 
#1,041
#1,041
why even say if we should be mad now if we are left out or not?

We have no idea what the bubble will look like 4 weeks from now.
 
#1,042
#1,042
v011s said:
lol
VT's "Top50" wins are against Duke and Virginia.
Essentially Top12 teams in the eyes of the committee.
Which are 2 wins better than UT's best.

Same for Syracuse. 8 Top100 wins with 2 Top12 wins.

Seton Hall's Top50 wins are at neutral sites.
They are 7th place in a great conference and not currently 7th place in the cruddy SEC.




I guess I'm raining on the parade, but no one should be angry if UT is left out. Barring wins against UK and SCe.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone is going to be angry, Tennessee only has themselves to blame...all anyone is saying is that their resume is comparable to most of the other bubble teams.

Idk the answer to this, but how many wins against top 100 teams does...Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Illinois State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Marquette, California, Pittsburghand Seton Hall have?
 
#1,043
#1,043
bleedingTNorange said:
Matrix updated today...

Vols 2nd team out

Last 6 In:
Syracuse
Michigan
Seton Hall
Marquette
Arkansas
Illinois State

First 6 Out:
Wake Forest
Tennessee
Indiana
Georgia Tech
Rhode Island
Clemson
Click to expand...

Record vs. top 100:
Syracuse: 6-6 (50%)
Michigan: 7-8 (47%)
Seton Hall: 5-8 (38%)
Marquette: 6-9(40%)
Arkansas: 7-5 (54%)
Illinois State: 2-3(40%)
Wake Forest: 5-10 (33%)
Tennessee: 8-10 (44%)
Indiana: 6-8 (43%)
Georgia Tech: 5-9 (36%)
Rhode Island: 2-8 (20%)
Clemson: 7-10 (41%)
 
#1,045
#1,045
Chris Clarke of Virginia Tech is done for the year, tore his ACL last night...committee will monitor how VT does without him, if they limp to the finish line they could find themselves left out.
 
#1,050
#1,050
Back to the bubble for Syracuse now 16-11 after losing to Louisville in OT
 
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