Official Bubble Watch Thread

#2,358
#2,358
All the bubble teams losing to night just about; Kansas State loses, California loses, TCU loses, Georgia loses, Houston loses and Ole Miss loses...

IMO this is your field...

Southern Cal
Rhode Island
Illinois State
---------------------------
Syracuse


Only way that changes is if there are any bids stolen IMO
 
#2,359
#2,359
Last nine games for Coach Bubble at Cal...

3-6 with two of those wins coming against a 5 win Oregon State team.

Bet Cuonzo tries to get the Missouri job to restart his clock in Kevin O'Neil fashion.
 
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#2,360
#2,360
I don't know that I've ever seen a team pull off what Vanderbilt has. They've gone from not even in the bubble discussion 3-4 weeks ago to potentially getting a 9 seed. RPI is now 33 and KenPom is 31. They have 6 top 50 wins and with a chance for #7 today.
 
#2,363
#2,363
Dallasbowlin said:
Vandy would win a conference title before Tennessee.... that's not right.
Click to expand...

Much as you hate the Blue, I would have thought you'd be pullin for them today.

PS everybody might have a title before we do. We're just stabilizin.
 
#2,364
#2,364
calban said:
Much as you hate the Blue, I would have thought you'd be pullin for them today.

PS everybody might have a title before we do. We're just stabilizin.
Click to expand...

I never pull for Kentucky. The day I pull for ky is the day I'll no longer watch college athletics.
 
#2,366
#2,366
TNSportsman said:
I don't know that I've ever seen a team pull off what Vanderbilt has. They've gone from not even in the bubble discussion 3-4 weeks ago to potentially getting a 9 seed. RPI is now 33 and KenPom is 31. They have 6 top 50 wins and with a chance for #7 today.
Click to expand...

When you play in this garbage league,you always have a chance.
 
#2,370
#2,370
bleedingTNorange said:
All the bubble teams losing to night just about; Kansas State loses, California loses, TCU loses, Georgia loses, Houston loses and Ole Miss loses...

IMO this is your field...

Southern Cal
Rhode Island
Illinois State
---------------------------
Syracuse


Only way that changes is if there are any bids stolen IMO
Click to expand...

Only potential bid steal left would be MTSU who plays tonight against Marshall, if they win that's almost certainly 0 stolen bids. I have Rhode Island in the field, but a loss tomorrow to VCU could in theory open the door but I personally think they're in regardless and field is set unless MTSU loses tonight.
 
#2,371
#2,371
bleedingTNorange said:
Only potential bid steal left would be MTSU who plays tonight against Marshall, if they win that's almost certainly 0 stolen bids. I have Rhode Island in the field, but a loss tomorrow to VCU could in theory open the door but I personally think they're in regardless and field is set unless MTSU loses tonight.
Click to expand...

So no Cal? I thought 21 wins might be enough to get them in
 
#2,374
#2,374
bleedingTNorange said:
All the bubble teams losing to night just about; Kansas State loses, California loses, TCU loses, Georgia loses, Houston loses and Ole Miss loses...

IMO this is your field...

Southern Cal
Rhode Island
Illinois State
---------------------------
Syracuse


Only way that changes is if there are any bids stolen IMO
Click to expand...

I will say Lunardi has Syracuse and Kansas State in over Illinois State and Southern Cal. Hard for me to think RPI 42 of USC gets left out, but who knows. I do think Kansas State has a chance to sneak in over Syracuse and Illinois State though.
 
#2,375
#2,375
LAST FIVE IN
Wake Forest
With wins against Louisville and Miami, no bad losses, a top-40 RPI and top-20 strength of schedule, the Demon Deacons (19-13, 9-9) are the safest of remaining bubble teams.
Providence
Seemingly safe and off the bubble for a while, the Friars (20-12, 10-8, 55*RPI) *fell back on it as one of the last four in*due to Xavier's big win over Butler in the Big East tournament which coincided with Providence's loss to Creighton, who just got pummeled by Villanova in the Big East title game.
USC
The Trojans sport*an RPI of 41*and are 4-2 against top-100 teams. Their loss to UCLA in the Pac-12 tourney was close, and they already have a win against the Bruins on their résumé, as well as a nice victory against SMU. If the numbers aren't there, the eye candy is.
Kansas State
The Wildcats upset Baylor in the Big 12 tournament for their second victory against the Bears with the other coming on the road. Still, it's a non-conference strength of schedule in the 200s that could cause the committee to use the Wildcats as an example*— sending a message that teams should challenge themselves even if they're in a power conference.
Rhode Island *
The Rams hammered Davidson and have a chance to get the automatic bid in the A-10 championship against VCU, a team it beat by 10 points in their last meeting. Should they falter, they will be as close as it gets. If a team like Syracuse or Illinois State sneak in, RI could be the team that suffers.*Saint Bonaventure, a team with two horrendous losses last season, had much a much better profile than the Rams do. And got snubbed. It's a weak bubble, but still. One thing to note about this team. Will the committee pay close attention to injuries? Clearly the Rams look their best right now and part of why they weren't at top gear was due to a slew of injuries.
FIRST FOUR OUT
Illinois State
The Redbirds (27-6, 17-1) don't seem to have enough with crucial résumé blemishes and just one top-50 victory*— against Wichita State. But the committee has put teams of Illinois State's caliber in before. The Redbirds, sporting an RPI of 33,*weren't just co-champs in the Missouri Valley, they were head and shoulders better than everyone else. Way worse at-large teams have gone dancing. One of them: VCU in 2011. The whole Syracuse went to the Final Four last year argument shouldn't matter, with that as a mid-major*example.
Syracuse
Just how much has the committee veered away from RPI as a metric that really matters to get teams in the NCAAs? For mid-majors, that metric has been a saving grace over the years. But in the past few seasons the committee has put a lot more stock on top-50 wins, which the Orange (18-14, 10-8) have in bunches after finishing in the middle of the pack of the ACC. Wins against Duke, Florida State and Virginia look really, really nice. But their RPI of 84 is literally 50 percentage points worse than Illinois State's. Mid-majors don't get the chance to play elite teams*— on their homecourt*— like 'Cuse does. And two wins away from the Carrier Dome should be the deciding factor here.
Illinois*
The Fighting Illini (18-14, 8-10) lost in the Big Ten tournament to Michigan, which could win the title on Sunday and help Illinois' chances.*Had this team not lost to Rutgers in its season finale, maybe Groce would still have a job and opportunity to prove himself in the NCAAs one last time. But it's difficult to not look at his firing as a foregone conclusion that this team is not getting in.*Illinois' best wins all came against pretty borderline teams, though, beating Virginia Commonwealth, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. Those are all meh win to go with an RPI in the 60s.
Georgia
The Bulldogs (19-14, 9-9) will likely be a team of What Ifs considering they almost beat Florida and Kentucky in overtime losses and just couldn't get the marquee win that would've put them over the edge. A top-20 strength of schedule looks nice, but their top wins were all against other bubble teams. Plus they had a blemish with a loss to Oakland.
THE LONG SHOTS
► TCU
► Houston
► Georgia Tech*
► California
► Alabama
►*Iowa
► Indiana
► Clemson
► Ole Miss
► UT Arlington
 
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