Official Seed List Watch Party Thread

#151
#151
bleedingTNorange said:
Fwiw Barttorvik and Teamrankings both still have us around 45-50% chance of a 1 seed, which is higher than I would’ve thought and judging by the vibe on the board guessing higher than most would’ve thought. And that’s not projecting we go undefeated, that’s both sites having us go 25-6 (14-4), so losing 2 more games, and still being on the 1 seed line. Obviously would still largely depend on what other teams do, mainly Kansas, Texas, Arizona & UCLA as of today, but found it interesting.
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What two games does it predict as losses or does it say?
 
#153
#153
mr.checkerboards said:
What two games does it predict as losses or does it say?
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We have a >50% chance of winning each individual game (actually the lowest is 67% @ Auburn) according to Torvik, so taking that into account the odds are we'll lose 2 of them in a cumulative statistical outlook. Like, if we have a 70% chance of winning game 1 and a 70% chance of winning game 2, we only have a 49% chance of winning both.

Now, given what we just witnessed on Wednesday night and knowing some of the games left on our schedule, for most of us, our eye test ain't matching the computers. For instance, Torvik says we have a 77% chance of winning in Rupp. I'm not saying we can't win there, but do I really think our odds of winning there are that high?
 
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#154
#154
bleedingTNorange said:
That’s not how analytic projections work…the lowest % chance games if you want to look at it that way are @Auburn and home to Bama.
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I know sometimes sites project games as well, was just wondering if this one did. I figured Bama but honestly assumed the other would be @CorRUPt arena.
 
#155
#155
wtmvol said:
We have a >50% chance of winning each individual game (actually the lowest is 67% @ Auburn) according to Torvik, so taking that into account the odds are we'll lose 2 of them in a cumulative statistical outlook. Like, if we have a 70% chance of winning game 1 and a 70% chance of winning game 2, we only have a 49% chance of winning both.

Now, given what we just witnessed on Wednesday night and knowing some of the games left on our schedule, for most of us, our eye test ain't matching the computers. For instance, Torvik says we have a 77% chance of winning in Rupp. I'm not saying we can't win there, but do I really think our odds of winning there are that high?
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Idk what to think of the second UK game. I can't decide if us playing better is the key or them just not playing like their capable as they have 90% of the season.
 
#156
#156
bleedingTNorange said:
Fwiw Barttorvik and Teamrankings both still have us around 45-50% chance of a 1 seed, which is higher than I would’ve thought and judging by the vibe on the board guessing higher than most would’ve thought. And that’s not projecting we go undefeated, that’s both sites having us go 25-6 (14-4), so losing 2 more games, and still being on the 1 seed line. Obviously would still largely depend on what other teams do, mainly Kansas, Texas, Arizona & UCLA as of today, but found it interesting.
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Definitely interesting. I wouldn’t have expected it to be that high, mostly because I’m not sure (even if it’s deserved) that two SEC teams get a 1-seed in a conference that isn’t seen as that deep. There is a very realistic scenario where we beat Alabama, but still fall 1 game short of an SEC crown. Does the committee really give 2 SEC squads the top line? Feels like we’d need 3 more losses from Kansas and Arizona to make a strong case.
 
#157
#157
TheMookieMonster said:
Definitely interesting. I wouldn’t have expected it to be that high, mostly because I’m not sure (even if it’s deserved) that two SEC teams get a 1-seed in a conference that isn’t seen as that deep. There is a very realistic scenario where we beat Alabama, but still fall 1 game short of an SEC crown. Does the committee really give 2 SEC squads the top line? Feels like we’d need 3 more losses from Kansas and Arizona to make a strong case.
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You saying those 2 teams lose 3 and we lose 2?
 
#158
#158
bleedingTNorange said:
You saying those 2 teams lose 3 and we lose 2?
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Yeah, basically. I think we need a 1 game lead in the loss column on them with the H2H on both. My reasoning being that the perception of the Big 12 is that it’s the best conference, so I’m not sure if we have equivalent losses and the H2H it will be enough. I just can’t see the SEC getting 2 top seeds and the Big 12 zero if it’s a close decision for the committee. This being Texas/Kansas.

Arizona a bit different because they have the H2H so I definitely think we need fewer losses.
 
#159
#159
TheMookieMonster said:
Yeah, basically. I think we need a 1 game lead in the loss column on them with the H2H on both. My reasoning being that the perception of the Big 12 is that it’s the best conference, so I’m not sure if we have equivalent losses and the H2H it will be enough. I just can’t see the SEC getting 2 top seeds and the Big 12 zero if it’s a close decision for the committee. This being Texas/Kansas.

Arizona a bit different because they have the H2H so I definitely think we need fewer losses.
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Makes sense, fwiw he has…
Tennessee 25-6
Kansas 23-8
Arizona 26-5
Texas 23-8

So he’s obviously projecting both Kansas and Texas to drop quite a few more, they still have to play twice so there will be some B12 canabalizing that goes on.
 
#160
#160
TheMookieMonster said:
Definitely interesting. I wouldn’t have expected it to be that high, mostly because I’m not sure (even if it’s deserved) that two SEC teams get a 1-seed in a conference that isn’t seen as that deep. There is a very realistic scenario where we beat Alabama, but still fall 1 game short of an SEC crown. Does the committee really give 2 SEC squads the top line? Feels like we’d need 3 more losses from Kansas and Arizona to make a strong case.
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It doesn't surprise me all that much because analytics dont typically sway like human emotions. One bad game isn't cause for mathematical panic the way it sends tenderhearted, fragile fans into a free fall.
 
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#161
#161
bleedingTNorange said:
Makes sense, fwiw he has…
Tennessee 25-6
Kansas 23-8
Arizona 26-5
Texas 23-8

So he’s obviously projecting both Kansas and Texas to drop quite a few more, they still have to play twice so there will be some B12 canabalizing that goes on.
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If this does end up being the final results, I think we’ll be seeded higher than Kansas and Texas, but not Arizona. I think there is a human element involved here, and I don’t think the SEC will get two 1-seeds if other conferences have viable alternatives. JMO.
 
#162
#162
TheMookieMonster said:
If this does end up being the final results, I think we’ll be seeded higher than Kansas and Texas, but not Arizona. I think there is a human element involved here, and I don’t think the SEC will get two 1-seeds if other conferences have viable alternatives. JMO.
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Definitely possible
 
#163
#163
I’m not that caught up in the 1 seed talk as much because I would be perfectly fine with a 2 seed. It would be nice to be a 1 seed but when it comes down to it, I feel we would have better matchups in the Rd of 32 as a 2 seed rather than playing a 8/9 seed that could very well be a UNC, Duke, etc. It obviously depends on what plays out the rest of the season and who is seeded where, but as long as we’re a 2 seed at the worst, I’ll be happy.
 
#164
#164
Took a peek at tomorrow’s slate of games. There aren't a ton of what I would consider “opportunities” for us to gain some ground in the 1-seed/2-seed convo, but there are two games that will help regardless of the outcome.

Texas @ Kansas State
Kansas @ Iowa State

Purdue plays at Indiana. Could be a chance for a Purdue L, but I’m not sold.
 
#165
#165
TheMookieMonster said:
Took a peek at tomorrow’s slate of games. There aren't a ton of what I would consider “opportunities” for us to gain some ground in the 1-seed/2-seed convo, but there are two games that will help regardless of the outcome.

Texas @ Kansas State
Kansas @ Iowa State

Purdue plays at Indiana. Could be a chance for a Purdue L, but I’m not sold.
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Will definitely be a huge Trace Jackson Davis fan tomorrow.
 
#166
#166
Gonna go back to 1-5 seeds for right now, as expected we fall off the 1 line with the loss to Florida…

1. Purdue
2. Alabama
3. Kansas
4. Houston
———————
5. Tennessee
6. Arizona
7. Texas
8. UCLA
———————
9. Kansas State
10. Virginia
11. Baylor
12. Gonzaga
———————
13. Xavier
14. Iowa State
15. Marquette
16. TCU
———————
17. Connecticut
18. St. Mary’s
19. Rutgers
20. Illinois
 
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#167
#167
Todays games:
12pm: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
12pm: Kansas vs. Iowa State
12pm: Connecticut vs. Georgetown
1pm: Texas Tech vs. Baylor
2pm: Butler vs. Marquette
2pm: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
4pm: Purdue vs. Indiana
4pm: Alabama vs. LSU
4pm: Texas vs. Kansas State
5pm: St. John’s vs. Xavier
7pm: Washington State vs. UCLA
9:30pm: Oregon State vs. Arizona
10:30pm: Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s

Kansas, Texas and Gonzaga games are all good/bad outcomes, went with the home team as road wins are impressive and also in all 3 situations the road team is projected as higher seed than home team currently.
 
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#168
#168
bleedingTNorange said:
Gonna go back to 1-5 seeds for right now, as expected we fall off the 1 line with the loss to Florida…

1. Purdue
2. Alabama
3. Kansas
4. Houston
———————
5. Tennessee
6. Arizona
7. Texas
8. UCLA
———————
9. Kansas State
10. Virginia
11. Baylor
12. Gonzaga
———————
13. Xavier
14. Iowa State
15. Marquette
16. TCU
———————
17. Connecticut
18. St. Mary’s
19. Rutgers
20. Illinois
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Woof. BTO whipping out the 5-seed line in his daily updates. Guess his faith was shaken a bit too after that loss 😅
 
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#170
#170
bleedingTNorange said:
Gonna go back to 1-5 seeds for right now, as expected we fall off the 1 line with the loss to Florida…

1. Purdue
2. Alabama
3. Kansas
4. Houston
———————
5. Tennessee
6. Arizona
7. Texas
8. UCLA
———————
9. Kansas State
10. Virginia
11. Baylor
12. Gonzaga
———————
13. Xavier
14. Iowa State
15. Marquette
16. TCU
———————
17. Connecticut
18. St. Mary’s
19. Rutgers
20. Illinois
Click to expand...

I’ll just note that we’ve played 3 of the top 7 teams in the current bracket (one we can’t play because it’s us), won 2 of those, and 1 close loss on the road. That’s not too shabby people.
 
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#172
#172
My hope (long shot, probably) is that we finish as at least 2 seed. Very good shot at a long run then.
 
#173
#173
ISU up 18 with 10 minutes left. Not looking good for a Kansas road W
 
#174
#174
VT up 9 on Virginia with 3mins remaining
Iowa State up 18 on Kansas with 7mins remaining
Georgetown up 1 on UCONN with 4mins remaining
 
#175
#175
I’m starting to think that Georgetown just has no self belief that they can win a close game. Feels like I’ve seen countless times this year where Georgetown has had leads late and cannot close. We’ll see what happens these last two minutes. But, it’s the anti-clutch gene.
 
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