OK so how do we get to a bowl from here (revisit)

#27
#27
NashVOL93 said:
The 'Zou absolutely had their way with Florida, my man. Their D-line is nasty and their O is like a better South Carolina, with the same kind of big, tall WRs we'll have in full bloom in a few years. It's gonna be rough.
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Now don't start talking rational in here, noboby will know what the hell your talking about.
 
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#28
#28
Simple. Win 2 of the last 5. The next three weeks are brutal. I'd like to know if any team has ever played three in a row this deep in the season where the opponents have one loss between them. I kind of doubt it. I'd be very happy if we win one of the next three (I give that a 25% shot), ecstatic with two (5% chance). Realisitically, we'll need to beat Candy and KY for a bowl. I saw MO play Candy a few weeks ago in Nashville and I was very impressed. Beating them at their place would be huge (never thought I'd say that in my lifetime).
 
#31
#31
de3cls said:
Alabama L
Missouri W
Auburn W
Vanderbilt W
Kentucky W

I really like our chances winning the last 4. Alabama is not an automatic loss at this point. We have a chance. Winning the Bama game is very possible, but not probable.
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This. Worst case we lose one to Auburn or Mizzou. 7 wins minimum with momentum going into the bowl and next season.
 
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#32
#32
Chilmonty said:
So how do we get there? Bold are remaining home games.

USC - W? YEAH BABY!!
AL - L
Mizzou - L? NOW #5 YIKES!
Auburn - W/L? now ranked #11 WTH!!
Vandy - W
KY Jelly - W

If Worley can improve some (PLEASE!) I think we beat KY and Mizzou, the sixth win is tall order though. Auburn and Vandy are home games soooo....??

If we had just beat GA, dangit!

Don't know about MIZZ now, they are lookin pretty good. Also Auburn??????

Don't know if SC is a "must win" but it is starting to look like it????

UPDATE:

Now we only need 2 more wins, 3 and CBJ is INSTANT coach of the year!!

Even the ND OSU MICH Etc homer press is noticing how Horrible our schedule is!!!

Last 3 games may be our only real shots??

So what is the scenario????


.
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We won't sneak up on anyone now!!! Everyone knows that we are for real...
 
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#33
#33
I don't see how anyone can think we have a "good" chance at beating Bama, Mizzou, or Auburn. If Auburn plays like they did against LSU in Neyland...maybe, but I'm not convinced.
 
#37
#37
Better chance of beating Auburn than Mizzu IMO. Auburn's D is awful. Mizzu D not great, but more teeth than Malzahn's offense only approach.
 
#38
#38
It's going to be a fun ride the next 6 weeks because we WILL make a bowl, but there are so so so many ways to skin that cat.

Let's first look at how we make it there with a probable Alabama loss:

4-4, 1-3 SEC

@Missouri L
Auburn L
Vanderbilt W
@ Kentucky W

I believe that is the most likely scenario (based on paper), but really, Missouri and Auburn are playing over their expected projections, so with a win against either team, we're at 7-5. It is ENTIRELY possible that our coaches could exploit the weaknesses of all 4 teams and win all of them, finishing 8-4 (5-3).

What I really believe will happen is both Missouri and Auburn come back to earth a little, and we SPLIT those 2 games, then beat the Commodes and Kentucky.

Keep in mind, we aren't out of the SEC East race - win out, and I bet we're in the SECCG. Is that going to happen? Not likely at all, but you play the games for a reason!

In my (dumb) opinion only, I've ranked our final record by most likely to least likely:

7-5
6-6
8-4
5-7
9-3
4-8
 
#40
#40
I like our chances with the last 4. I can see three wins out of those hopefully all 4.

If Butch goes 8-4 is he ahead of schedule?

Those that think we beat bama... lol
 
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#41
#41
I think USC will destroy Mizzou this weekend, after a lose to us they will be fired up.

SC will exploit there weaknesses and all Butch will have to do is gameplan to those weaknesses.

Auburn will be tuff, and Vandy and KY are Vandy and KY. Butch will have them so fired up for Vandy at home, should be a mud stompin.
 
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#42
#42
We can beat Mizzou I swear we can.

Bama- L

Mizzou- W

Vandy- W

Auburn- L

Kentucky- W

My predictions for the rest of the season. With a close loss to Auburn.
 
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#43
#43
Shaw is unlikely against Mizzou, so they will probably still be undefeated when we face them. They should be tough on the road.


.
 
#44
#44
Georgia has proved that they weren't very good to begin with (and depleted on top of that). I believe South Carolina wasn't a great team either (and we had a LOT of breaks go our way in that game). So I think so people here are a little overzealous.

Here are my win percentage odds for our games the rest of the way -

p.s. I am trying my best to stay realistic and unbiased...and these are odds to win btw

Alabama - 5% (best team in the country, deepest team, best coached team, it ain't happening)

Missouri - 15% (Mizzou is pretty hard to get a handle on, but they have murdered every SEC team they have played, including two we couldn't beat in FLA and UGA. Game is also away)

Auburn - 35% (I think we have a legitimate shot here. All of Auburn's SEC games have been pretty close and if we can get some breaks at home then we have a punchers chance, but overall they are a more complete team than we are right now IMO)

Vanderbilt - 55% (They aren't good, but they certainly aren't bad and just because you hate them doesn't mean they can't beat us. Playing at home gives us the edge in this matchup IMO)

Kentucky - 90% (Kentucky is a little better than their record shows under Stoops this year, but they really don't have the depth needed to compete. Kentucky won't be playing for much of anything in this game while UT could have bowl apirations on the line.)
 
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#46
#46
ProfessorD said:
I like our chances with the last 4. I can see three wins out of those hopefully all 4.

If Butch goes 8-4 is he ahead of schedule?

Those that think we beat bama... lol
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You're laughing at the people thinking we can beat Bama yet you're asking if CBJ is ahead of schedule going 8-4? If he goes 8-4 he deserves SEC Coach of the year.
 
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#48
#48
Chilmonty said:
So how do we get there? Bold are remaining home games.

USC - W? YEAH BABY!!
AL - L
Mizzou - L? NOW #5 YIKES!
Auburn - W/L? now ranked #11 WTH!!
Vandy - W
KY Jelly - W

If Worley can improve some (PLEASE!) I think we beat KY and Mizzou, the sixth win is tall order though. Auburn and Vandy are home games soooo....??

If we had just beat GA, dangit!

Don't know about MIZZ now, they are lookin pretty good. Also Auburn??????

Don't know if SC is a "must win" but it is starting to look like it????

UPDATE:

Now we only need 2 more wins, 3 and CBJ is INSTANT coach of the year!!

Even the ND OSU MICH Etc homer press is noticing how Horrible our schedule is!!!

Last 3 games may be our only real shots??

So what is the scenario????


.
Click to expand...


Would love CBJ wo get Coach of the YR but unfortunately it will prob go to Pinkel, Malzon or Fisher. I only see AU losing at the most 2fun more, maybe to UT and to Ala. Mizzou is still a mystery, they are reaping benefits of depleted teams thanks mostly in part to us. But they still are playing well.
 
#50
#50
Nerd-Vol said:
So do we need to go 6-6 or 7-5 to bowl? I've heard both.
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6-6 is all you need. If we go 6-6 we are looking at either the Music City Bowl or the Liberty Bowl, both in the state of Tennessee. If we go 8-4 (HIGHLY UNLIKELY, C'mon people give it a little time) we will finish second in the East and with some help could even go to the SECCG.

6-6 is the goal, anything better from there is playing with house money.
 
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