Our first round matchup could be Ohio State at home.

#151
#151
ZoeVol said:
Vols most likely Playoff Opponent
OSU falls behind Vols and no more movement= 9-OSU @ 8-Vols
OSU doesnt fall behind Vols and no more movement= 9-Vols @ 8-OSU
Texas whips Dawgs OR Oregon whips Penn St.= 10-Indiana @ 7-Vols
Texas whips Dawgs AND Oregon whips Penn St.= 11-B12 winner @ 6-Vols
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I agree these are probably the only 4 scenarios.

However, I don't think Texas-Ga has any impact. Georgia beat Texas soundly in the first meeting. If Texas "whips" Georgia (not sure what point spread qualifies as a whipping) then the two teams split the series. I still think Georgia is a host team.

I do see how a beat down of Penn St. by Oregon could drop them far enough that they would not host.

I think the committee will be reluctant to punish conference championship losers. They are already being punished by having to play that extra game.
 
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#152
#152
boeninghaus said:
its been said that the committee will not punish conference championship game losers. so that isn't speculation.
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If your brain is capable of understanding nuance, then perhaps you can grasp that the concept of “punishment” is (probably intentionally) ambiguous. A conference championship runner up who gets blown out will drop. Is that punishment? No. That is ranking commensurate with results. We’ll know who and where we play next Sunday night. We won’t know this Tuesday night. We will have clues, but the board will change.
 
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#153
#153
Stoerner Fumbles said:
If your brain is capable of understanding nuance, then perhaps you can grasp that the concept of “punishment” is (probably intentionally) ambiguous. A conference championship runner up who gets blown out will drop. Is that punishment? No. That is ranking commensurate with results. We’ll know who and where we play a week from Tuesday night. We won’t know this Tuesday night. We will have clues, but the board will change.
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Spot on. Not being punished means not judging a team based on a 2 or 3 in the loss column where there used to be a 1 or 2. That doesn’t preclude them from dropping a team based on eye test.
 
#155
#155
Stoerner Fumbles said:
If your brain is capable of understanding nuance, then perhaps you can grasp that the concept of “punishment” is (probably intentionally) ambiguous. A conference championship runner up who gets blown out will drop. Is that punishment? No. That is ranking commensurate with results. We’ll know who and where we play next Sunday night. We won’t know this Tuesday night. We will have clues, but the board will change.
Click to expand...
This. The final rankings show airs at noon next Sunday, so we'll know by 12;15pm where we're headed and who we play.
 
#156
#156
ZoeVol said:
Vols most likely Playoff Opponent
OSU falls behind Vols and no more movement= 9-OSU @ 8-Vols
OSU doesnt fall behind Vols and no more movement= 9-Vols @ 8-OSU
Texas whips Dawgs OR Oregon whips Penn St.= 10-Indiana @ 7-Vols
Texas whips Dawgs AND Oregon whips Penn St.= 11-B12 winner @ 6-Vols
Click to expand...
I think this is close. The only thing I'd say is I think the committee will avoid rematches in the 1st round. So I don't think they'd allow Penn State and Ohio State to be in the 8/9 matchup. Meaning, in your 3rd scenario, if Georgia wins, even if Penn State gets thumped I think they'll still get the 7 seed over us.

We'll find out tomorrow between your 1st and 2nd scenario which one can be removed.
 
#159
#159
Orange Navy said:
I agree these are probably the only 4 scenarios.

However, I don't think Texas-Ga has any impact. Georgia beat Texas soundly in the first meeting. If Texas "whips" Georgia (not sure what point spread qualifies as a whipping) then the two teams split the series. I still think Georgia is a host team.

I do see how a beat down of Penn St. by Oregon could drop them far enough that they would not host.

I think the committee will be reluctant to punish conference championship losers. They are already being punished by having to play that extra game.
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UGA will not host as a 3 loss team
 
#160
#160
Stoerner Fumbles said:
If your brain is capable of understanding nuance, then perhaps you can grasp that the concept of “punishment” is (probably intentionally) ambiguous. A conference championship runner up who gets blown out will drop. Is that punishment? No. That is ranking commensurate with results. We’ll know who and where we play next Sunday night. We won’t know this Tuesday night. We will have clues, but the board will change.
Click to expand...
Well I guess my pea-brain isn't capable of any rational thinking. If Georgia loses this game and drops below us then that is punishment. They would be better off to not even play in this game and sit back and host the 1st round if their reward for playing in the Championship game is losing home field advantage to a team they beat head to head 3 weeks earlier. As much as you all want to move up in the rankings, I don't see the committee moving us above uga or penn state if either was to lose.

The good news is we will get to find out in a week.
 
#161
#161
Orange Navy said:
I agree these are probably the only 4 scenarios.

However, I don't think Texas-Ga has any impact. Georgia beat Texas soundly in the first meeting. If Texas "whips" Georgia (not sure what point spread qualifies as a whipping) then the two teams split the series. I still think Georgia is a host team.

I do see how a beat down of Penn St. by Oregon could drop them far enough that they would not host.

I think the committee will be reluctant to punish conference championship losers. They are already being punished by having to play that extra game.
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I agree. In addition GA beat TN head to head which apparently the committee values. Maybe they drop PSU below us if they look awful vs Oregon but I still see the mostly like scenario is Tn @ OSU. I will be surprised if they drop OSU below us given their ranking history.
 
#162
#162
Our path is just so much easier to a title game with that first game being at Neyland. I hope the committee does the right thing and drops OSU behind us.
 
#163
#163
boeninghaus said:
Well I guess my pea-brain isn't capable of any rational thinking. If Georgia loses this game and drops below us then that is punishment. They would be better off to not even play in this game and sit back and host the 1st round if their reward for playing in the Championship game is losing home field advantage to a team they beat head to head 3 weeks earlier. As much as you all want to move up in the rankings, I don't see the committee moving us above uga or penn state if either was to lose.

The good news is we will get to find out in a week.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately you aren’t the arbiter of what punishment means and we may or may not “find out” in a week based on the margin(s) of victory. I feel reasonably confident that someone will indeed drop in ratings based on the results of the championship games. By your definition of punishment, it’s almost guaranteed. According to the rules, SMU can tumble from top four to out of the running depending on the results of their game. They too could benefit from “opting out”. You’re misapplying the intent of the chairman’s statement.
 
#164
#164
It might come down to the who has the worse loss between OSU and TN. Losing at home as 21 pt favorites is alittle worse than losing on the road as 17.5 favorites.
 
#165
#165
My prediction of our bowl card:

First Round : host Indiana at Neyland
Qtr Finals : vs SMU or Clemson in the Peach Bowl, OR vs Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
Semi Finals : vs Texas or UGa in the Orange Bowl
Finals : vs Oregon in Atlanta

Here's hoping we make it to every one of those games. Heh.

Go Vols!
 
#166
#166
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Unfortunately you aren’t the arbiter of what punishment means and we may or may not “find out” in a week based on the margin(s) of victory. I feel reasonably confident that someone will indeed drop in ratings based on the results of the championship games. By your definition of punishment, it’s almost guaranteed. According to the rules, SMU can tumble from top four to out of the running depending on the results of their game. They too could benefit from “opting out”. You’re misapplying the intent of the chairman’s statement.
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The selection show is Sunday so yeah we will know by then. I feel like SMU's situation is a little different. You aren't comparing the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in the SEC with a head to head matchup. Plus, do they want bama in over a SMU who had a very weak schedule? I guess Penn State could be viewed similarly since their schedule has been hot dog water.
 
#167
#167
aRmo said:
It might come down to the who has the worse loss between OSU and TN. Losing at home as 21 pt favorites is alittle worse than losing on the road as 17.5 favorites.
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I think they will look at the home loss to MI as much worst but I also think they will value OSU's win at PSU and home win against IU better than our home win over Bama. Two wins (with one away) against highly ranked teams vs our solo win against a currently ranked team.
 
#168
#168
Houstonvol1 said:
I think they will look at the home loss to MI as much worst but I also think they will value OSU's win at PSU and home win against IU better than our home win over Bama. Two wins (with one away) against highly ranked teams vs our solo win against a currently ranked team.
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True, the SOS is almost dead even between the two schools aswell. Columbus is a dump tho. 😂
 
#169
#169
VFL-82-JP said:
My prediction of our bowl card:

First Round : host Indiana at Neyland
Qtr Finals : vs SMU or Clemson in the Peach Bowl, OR vs Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
Semi Finals : vs Texas or UGa in the Orange Bowl
Finals : vs Oregon in Atlanta

Here's hoping we make it to every one of those games. Heh.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
I don’t think Oregon makes it all the way through, too many good LOS teams in the field, they’ll get beat.
 
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