Our path to the East as of week 10

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

EDIT: I am going to correct myself on this post, because it seems like I was way over complicating it.

So basically if Mizzou beats Georgia, and we win out, we win the East. Much easier. And not too far fetched.





A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.

 

[apevol]

A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.

if the dawgs drop games to the vols and mizzou and the vols win out i see no comprehensible reason the vols aren't the highest ranked of the 3

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.

We would have the head to head over UGA and Mizzou in the “3-way tie” scenario.

 

[JCHateSteve]

A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.

We need UGA to lose a game other than us. After that, If we win out UGA and Mizzu aren't a problem. The 1st tie breaker is winner of the head the head. We'll have beaten both of them if we win out. Right now we need UGA to drop either Mizzu or Ole Miss and UF to lose again.

 

[Tman44]

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

We would have the head to head over UGA and Mizzou in the “3-way tie” scenario.

I thought that initially too but I figured the head to head aspect didn't work twice. At that point it's just all about conference record.

Could be wrong though.

 

[Vol_in_NC_1999]

Wonder what the Vegas odds of this are and what the return would be if we bet 2 cents on it, which as much as I'd be willing to put up.

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

Georgia is not losing to crummy mizzou so we can throw out that second option. It won’t even be close

 

[peyton=legend]

Tennessee would take the division if we beat both Missouri and Georgia but all three teams have the same record.

2. Three-Team Tie (or more): If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):

A. Combined head to head record among the tied teams

 

[CMcEver]

We need UGA to lose a game other than us. After that, If we win out UGA and Mizzu aren't a problem. The 1st tie breaker is winner of the head the head. We'll have beaten both of them if we win out. Right now we need UGA to drop either Mizzu or Ole Miss and UF to lose again.

2. Three-Team Tie (or more): If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):

A. Combined head to head record among the tied teams;

B. Record of the tied teams within the division;

So UF having 2 losses within the division, they are a non-issue. Just need Georgia to drop 1 other and UT win out.

 

[Manchester Vol]

A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.

Need the GA bus to break down or something.

 

[bpalmer28]

 

[JCHateSteve]

2. Three-Team Tie (or more): If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):

A. Combined head to head record among the tied teams;

B. Record of the tied teams within the division;

So UF having 2 losses within the division, they are a non-issue. Just need Georgia to drop 1 other and UT win out.

We don't make it to B in that scenario. Tennessee would be eliminated by A, head to head vs UF. That is unless UGA has two losses too. Then it depends on who UGA lost to.

 

[CMcEver]

We don't make it to B in that scenario. Tennessee would be eliminated by A, head to head vs UF. That is unless UGA has two losses too. Then it depends on who UGA lost to.

In a 3 way tie where UGA drops 1 other game, that means each would have a win over the other. If there is a 4way with Mizzou, then same thing, and Tennessee still goes because of only 1 division loss. The only way Florida wins is if UGA drops 3 games.

 

[TrueOrange]

if the dawgs drop games to the vols and mizzou and the vols win out i see no comprehensible reason the vols aren't the highest ranked of the 3

The rankings being the determinant for the tiebreaker was the old system. Now it goes:

Three-Team Tie (or more):

A. Combined head to head record among the tied teams;

B. Record of the tied teams within the division;

C. Head to head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place);

D. Overall Conference record against non divisional teams;

E. Combined record against all common non divisional teams;

F. Record against the common non divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non divisional) and proceeding through other common non divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division; and

G. Best cumulative Conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents (Note: If two teams' non-divisional opponents have the same cumulative record, then the two-team tiebreaker procedures apply. If four teams are tied, and three teams' non-divisional opponents have the same cumulative record, the three-team tiebreaker procedures will be used beginning with 2.A.);

H. Coin flip of the tied teams with the team with the odd result being the representative (Example: If there are two teams with tails and one team with heads, the team with heads is the representative).

The part in bold is what replaced the “highest ranked team” tiebreaker used during the BCS era.

 

[OrangeWayOfLife]

Florida definitely drops one of Mizzou or lsu, if not both

 

[TrueOrange]

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.

That’s the old tiebreaker from the BCS period. That’s no longer been used since the CFP system began. It has since been replaced in the tiebreaker system with:

“G. Best cumulative Conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents (Note: If two teams' non-divisional opponents have the same cumulative record, then the two-team tiebreaker procedures apply. If four teams are tied, and three teams' non-divisional opponents have the same cumulative record, the three-team tiebreaker procedures will be used beginning with 2.A.);”

SEC Divisional Tie-Breaker

Procedures used to break all ties to determine the SEC Football Championship Game representative

www.secsports.com

 

[JCHateSteve]

In a 3 way tie where UGA drops 1 other game, that means each would have a win over the other. If there is a 4way with Mizzou, then same thing, and Tennessee still goes because of only 1 division loss. The only way Florida wins is if UGA drops 3 games.

There can't be a 4 way. Mizzu has to play both Tennessee and UF still.

UF can't win the division with UGA losing 2 but they can put Tennessee is a situation with UGA. In the 3 way tie scenario it depends on if UGA loses to Mizzu or Ole Miss. If it's the latter, UGA is in the same boat as us with 1 East loss and 1 West.

I don't know what happens from there. Does it go to C in the 3 way tie scenario or over to the 2 way tie scenario beacuse UF was eliminated?

 

[90 Vol]

The most fubar "Tennessee" scenario would be for us to lose to Missouri and beat Georgia. Then, we get to watch the Georgia team we beat play in the SEC Championship game.

 

[rockytop989]

Not going to happen this year. Do I hope so? Yes. Realistically, no chance.

 

[whobethis16]

The most fubar "Tennessee" scenario would be for us to lose to Missouri and beat Georgia. Then, we get to watch the Georgia team we beat play in the SEC Championship game.

Much like the last time Tennessee played in Atlanta for Florida...

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.

In that scenario of a 3 way tie we would have beaten both head to head which would get us to the championship game. I am fairly sure in a 3 way tie if one team won both head to head meetings they would advance. GBO

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

We need to win out and have Mizzou beat UGA. We'll have tiebreaker over both of them....

 

[VFL-82-JP]

This becomes a much more realistic conversation in two weeks. As long as some of the right things happen.

(a) Vols gotta beat UConn and Mizzou, naturally (in fact, we'll need to win out, but hold that thought for two weeks from now).
(b) Georgia needs to lose to either Mizzou or Ole Miss. We don't care which, as long as one of the two happen.
(c) Would be nice if Florida would lose to either Arkansas or LSU. Neither of those HAVE to happen; the Gators could still lose to Mizzou nearer the end of the season, but a loss to LSU in particular seems realistic.

So once we've beaten UConn and Mizzou, and Georgia has an SEC loss under their belt, and Florida has been taken out of the picture probably by LSU, then let's talk more.

Because at that point, believe it or not, the Vols will be in the driver seat, with FULL control over our destiny.

Right now, we need help from LSU, Mizzou, and/or Ole Miss.

Go Vols!

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

**If we are talking crazy chaos playoff scenarios, it would be much better for Mizzou (rather than Ole Miss) to beat UGA....