Our path to the East as of week 10

#27
#27
So what you're saying is we need Georgia, who hasn't lost since 2021, to lose the next three games to three inferior opponents. Seems reasonable...
 
#28
#28
CMcEver said:
In a 3 way tie where UGA drops 1 other game, that means each would have a win over the other. If there is a 4way with Mizzou, then same thing, and Tennessee still goes because of only 1 division loss. The only way Florida wins is if UGA drops 3 games.
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A 4-way tie is a little tougher…mostly because the only way to get to that point is everyone having 3 conference losses because of the overlaps of opponents. With the remaining schedule:

UGA (5-0) plays Mizzou, Ole Miss, & UT;
UT (3-2) plays UGA, Mizzou, and Vandy;
UF (3-2) plays Arkansas, LSU, Mizzou;
Mizzou (3-1) plays UGA, UT, UF, and Arkansas

Let’s say UGA loses out in conference play (gets to 5-3, a requirement for a 4-way tie). That would mean Tennessee and Missouri both get wins over them…sitting Tennessee at (4-2) and Missouri at (4-1).

For the sake of a 4-way tie, this would mean definitive head-to-head records among these teams as:

UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)

UT (1-1 - W: UGA, L: UF)

Mizzou (1-0 - W: UGA)

UF (1-1 - W: UT, L: UGA)

From there (presuming the only losses the rest of the season are in matchups involving these teams playing each other…ie, UT vs Mizzou and UF vs Mizzou) there are 4 different outcomes. I’ll base them around the results of UT’s 2 other SEC games for simpler presentation:

I. UT loses to Missouri (& beats Vanderbilt)

A. UF beats MIZ (and UF beats Arkansas & LSU while Missouri beats Arkansas)

1. 4-way matchup records are now:

a. UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)
UT (1-2 - W: UGA, L: UF, MIZ)
MIZ (2-1 - W: UGA, UT, L: UF)
UF (2-1 - W: UT, MIZ, L: UGA)

i. UGA and UT eliminated
ii. UF wins tiebreaker over MIZ by head- to - head


B. MIZ beats UF (and UF beats Arkansas & LSU while Missouri beats Arkansas)

1. 4-way matchup records are now:

a. UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)
UT (1-2 - W: UGA, L: UF, MIZ)
MIZ (3-0- W: UGA, UT, UF)
UF (1-2 - W: UT,, L: UGA, MIZ

i. MIZZOU wins tiebreaker

II. UT loses to Vanderbilt (& beats Missouri)

A. UF beats MIZ (and UF beats Arkansas & LSU while Missouri beats Arkansas)

1. 4-way matchup records are now:

a. UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)
UT (2-1 - W: UGA, MIZ, L: UF)
MIZ (1-2- W: UGA, L: UF, UT)
UF (2-1 - W: UT, MIZ, L: UGA)

i. MIZ and UGA eliminated
ii. UF wins tiebreaker over UT by head- to - head

B. MIZ beats UF (and UF beats Arkansas & LSU while Missouri beats Arkansas)

1. 4-way matchup records are now:

a. UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)
UT (2-1 - W: UGA, MIZ, L: UF)
MIZ (2-1- W: UGA, UF, L: UT)
UF (1-2 - W: UT,, L: UGA, MIZ)

i. UF and UGA eliminated
ii. UT wins tiebreaker over MIZ by head- to - head


…so those are the results of any 4-way ties with all teams at 5-3 (or lower)…essentially a situation where UT only wins through said tiebreakers if they were to beat UGA & Missouri while also losing to Vanderbilt.

(There’s also potentially a 5-way tie involving Kentucky, but (1) I’d have to iron out those details still and (2) that would involve Kentucky beating Alabama, so…yeah)
 
#29
#29
JCHateSteve said:
There can't be a 4 way. Mizzu has to play both Tennessee and UF still.
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Actually, for the sake of discussion, there can be a 4-way tie (it’d be an everyone is 5-3 in conference play situation). I laid out what all would have to happen, though, and the outcomes of such in the post above this reply I’m posting.
 
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#30
#30
CMcEver said:
In a 3 way tie where UGA drops 1 other game, that means each would have a win over the other. If there is a 4way with Mizzou, then same thing, and Tennessee still goes because of only 1 division loss. The only way Florida wins is if UGA drops 3 games.
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Florida could win out. However, they're almost certain to be the underdog to LSU next weekend, thus knocking them out of a 3 way tie of 2 loss teams.

They then play Mizzoo, so one of them will be taking on another loss and more than likely eliminating them.

If we win out and Georgia loses to Ole Miss, and i am not saying thats likely, the SEC East crown would almost certainly be ours.

UGA has done nothing but improve all season. Them dropping two is at best a remote possibility.
 
#31
#31
TrueOrange said:
Actually, for the sake of discussion, there can be a 4-way tie (it’d be an everyone is 5-3 in conference play situation). I laid out what all would have to happen, though, and the outcomes of such in the post above this reply I’m posting.
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That one is pretty far down the rabbit hole lol. But it has been a crazy year.
 
#32
#32
Forget about 3 way or 4 way tie -
18% chance MO take GA or
29% chance Ole MS takes GA
So about 1 in 3 chance the UT vs GA will be for the East side only 33% chance we win that. It is possible. Next weekend will determine if this falls in place.
Only way playoff is in the picture is beat UGA followed by beating 1 loss Alabama AND there are some upsets in conference championships. After the other conferences cannibalize themselves in final weeks.
1/3 the UT vs GA is for the east and 1/3 chance we win it - so 1/9 chance we win east. But its possible! Hell we lost to USC east last year!
 
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#34
#34
knox-townVOL said:
A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.
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CHANCE.jpg
 
#37
#37
BigOrangeMojo said:
We need to win out and have Mizzou beat UGA. We'll have tiebreaker over both of them....
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If we win out and Georgia loses to Ole miss instead of Missouri we still would have the tie breaker as we will have beaten both head to head. Of course that is assuming Florida loses another. The main thing is to play one game at a time. We need to play our best football against Missouri and Georgia. Maybe we will hit the right stride at the right time and continue to improve down the stretch! I would think in a 3 way tie that head to head would still apply before who was ranked higher. Now if there were no head to head winner then I think highest ranked team would apply. GBO
 
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#42
#42
From what I've seen this year..UT ain't beating Georgia, and Mizzou, and I cant believe I am saying this, is a tossup.
 
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#46
#46
First off, I love that we're talking about scenarios like this two thirds of the way through the season.

Still, based on their performance so far, I agree with the earlier poster who said there's no way Tennessee beats Georgia and beating Missouri is questionable. Still, I'm happy with 8-4, a solid bowl game, and building for the future.
 
#50
#50
TrueOrange said:
A 4-way tie is a little tougher…mostly because the only way to get to that point is everyone having 3 conference losses because of the overlaps of opponents. With the remaining schedule:

UGA (5-0) plays Mizzou, Ole Miss, & UT;
UT (3-2) plays UGA, Mizzou, and Vandy;
UF (3-2) plays Arkansas, LSU, Mizzou;
Mizzou (3-1) plays UGA, UT, UF, and Arkansas

Let’s say UGA loses out in conference play (gets to 5-3, a requirement for a 4-way tie). That would mean Tennessee and Missouri both get wins over them…sitting Tennessee at (4-2) and Missouri at (4-1).

For the sake of a 4-way tie, this would mean definitive head-to-head records among these teams as:

UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)

UT (1-1 - W: UGA, L: UF)

Mizzou (1-0 - W: UGA)

UF (1-1 - W: UT, L: UGA)

From there (presuming the only losses the rest of the season are in matchups involving these teams playing each other…ie, UT vs Mizzou and UF vs Mizzou) there are 4 different outcomes. I’ll base them around the results of UT’s 2 other SEC games for simpler presentation:

I. UT loses to Missouri (& beats Vanderbilt)

A. UF beats MIZ (and UF beats Arkansas & LSU while Missouri beats Arkansas)

1. 4-way matchup records are now:

a. UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)
UT (1-2 - W: UGA, L: UF, MIZ)
MIZ (2-1 - W: UGA, UT, L: UF)
UF (2-1 - W: UT, MIZ, L: UGA)

i. UGA and UT eliminated
ii. UF wins tiebreaker over MIZ by head- to - head


B. MIZ beats UF (and UF beats Arkansas & LSU while Missouri beats Arkansas)

1. 4-way matchup records are now:

a. UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)
UT (1-2 - W: UGA, L: UF, MIZ)
MIZ (3-0- W: UGA, UT, UF)
UF (1-2 - W: UT,, L: UGA, MIZ

i. MIZZOU wins tiebreaker

II. UT loses to Vanderbilt (& beats Missouri)

A. UF beats MIZ (and UF beats Arkansas & LSU while Missouri beats Arkansas)

1. 4-way matchup records are now:

a. UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)
UT (2-1 - W: UGA, MIZ, L: UF)
MIZ (1-2- W: UGA, L: UF, UT)
UF (2-1 - W: UT, MIZ, L: UGA)

i. MIZ and UGA eliminated
ii. UF wins tiebreaker over UT by head- to - head

B. MIZ beats UF (and UF beats Arkansas & LSU while Missouri beats Arkansas)

1. 4-way matchup records are now:

a. UGA (1-2 - W: UF, L: UT, MIZ)
UT (2-1 - W: UGA, MIZ, L: UF)
MIZ (2-1- W: UGA, UF, L: UT)
UF (1-2 - W: UT,, L: UGA, MIZ)

i. UF and UGA eliminated
ii. UT wins tiebreaker over MIZ by head- to - head


…so those are the results of any 4-way ties with all teams at 5-3 (or lower)…essentially a situation where UT only wins through said tiebreakers if they were to beat UGA & Missouri while also losing to Vanderbilt.

(There’s also potentially a 5-way tie involving Kentucky, but (1) I’d have to iron out those details still and (2) that would involve Kentucky beating Alabama, so…yeah)
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To be honest, Florida is pretty irrelevant since the best they can finish is a 4-2 division record. Even if they finish 6-2 in SEC play and are in a 3 team tiebreaker, they would lose the second tiebreaker since it is based on division record.

We only have one path and that is UGA losing to Mizzou or Ole Miss prior to playing us, assuming that everyone agrees our 1 path is winning out and finishing 6-2 in league play.

Even if it is Mizzou, Georgia, and Tennessee at 6-2 in league play, we would win the tiebreaker vs Mizzou because of the head to head since UGA would be eliminated on the second tiebreaker as they would have a 4-2 division record vs Mizzou/Tennessee being 5-1.

Georgia is likely to win the East with 1 loss at worst. No scenario on this earth where a 3 loss team wins the East.
 
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