Our path to the East as of week 10

#51
#51
I remember doing this in 2007 about this time of year and thinking we would not be the East champ but we did. We lost to California non-conference, Florida & Alabama & ended up tied UGA with 2 Conference Ls but beat UGA head to head 35 to 14. Then Lost in SECC 21-14 to LSU
Won Outback Bowl vs Wisconsin
So I'm not ruling it out
 
#52
#52
KTrain said:
I remember doing this in 2007 about this time of year and thinking we would not be the East champ but we did. We lost to California non-conference, Florida & Alabama & ended up tied UGA with 2 Conference Ls but beat UGA head to head 35 to 14. Then Lost in SECC 21-14 to LSU
Won Outback Bowl vs Wisconsin
So I'm not ruling it out
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That may have been a once in a lifetime miracle. Got slaughtered in our three losses. Was losing to Vandy in Neyland in 4th quarter 24-9 and was punting. Then Vandy inexplicably roughed the punter and it all turned then. Then the overtime madness at Kentucky.
 
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#53
#53
knox-townVOL said:
EDIT: I am going to correct myself on this post, because it seems like I was way over complicating it.

So basically if Mizzou beats Georgia, and we win out, we win the East. Much easier. And not too far fetched.





A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.
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My quibble is calling Florida inexcusable- perhaps no loss is excusable in the strictest sense, but that loss was imminently predictable prior to the season and in fact made sense in light of the widely accepted expectation that this was going to be a 9-3 team.

There had to be three losses somewhere - we’ve owned Kentucky and Mizzou in recent years. Conversely, we have won in Gainesville 2 or 3 times in the last 50 years. Anyone counting the road game at Florida as a win in their 9-3 expectation had no historical context.
 
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#54
#54
ZZ13 said:
That may have been a once in a lifetime miracle. Got slaughtered in our three losses. Was losing to Vandy in Neyland in 4th quarter 24-9 and was punting. Then Vandy inexplicably roughed the punter and it all turned then. Then the overtime madness at Kentucky.
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Yeah, beat Vandy 25 to 24 AND we some how beat Kentucky 52 to 50 was a wild year, this team is much better than the 2007 but sometimes that does not matter, its good to be lucky.
 
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#55
#55
Florida will lose to LSU. We just have to do our part and hope Georgia drops one. Best case scenario is Georgia and Missouri beat each other up this weekend and Missouri somehow wins. In any scenario Tennessee needs to win out.
 
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#56
#56
DaddyChad said:
Florida will lose to LSU. We just have to do our part and hope Georgia drops one. Best case scenario is Georgia and Missouri beat each other up this weekend and Missouri somehow wins. In any scenario Tennessee needs to win out.
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Florida is irrelevant.
 
#57
#57
Revived2002 said:
My quibble is calling Florida inexcusable- perhaps no loss is excusable in the strictest sense, but that loss was imminently predictable prior to the season and in fact made sense in light of the widely accepted expectation that this was going to be a 9-3 team.

There had to be three losses somewhere - we’ve owned Kentucky and Mizzou in recent years. Conversely, we have won in Gainesville 2 or 3 times in the last 50 years. Anyone counting the road game at Florida as a win in their 9-3 expectation had no historical context.
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You're right, the Florida loss wasn't inexcusable. It was beyond inexcusable.

That is a bad football team.
 
#58
#58
knox-townVOL said:
EDIT: I am going to correct myself on this post, because it seems like I was way over complicating it.

So basically if Mizzou beats Georgia, and we win out, we win the East. Much easier. And not too far fetched.





A lot of moving parts, and the inexcusable Florida loss still hurts since it means we need help, but it looks like this:

1. Win out, obviously
2. We actually need Georgia to beat Mizzou
3. Us beating Mizzou will give them their 3rd SEC loss, knocking them out of contention.
4. We need Kiffin and crew to beat Georgia
5. We need to beat Georgia, giving us both 2 conference losses and us winning the head to head.

Alternatively:

1. Win out
2. Mizzou beats Georgia
3. Ole Miss beats Georgia as well
4. Then us beating Georgia knocks them out of contention.
5. At that point us beating Mizzou gives them their second conference loss and has us winning the head to head.

What we don't want is a 3-way tie between us, Mizzou, and Georgia. I believe the winner at that point would be the highest ranked team, and I can't see any scenario where that's us.
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If it ended up in a 3 way tie we would likely be the highest ranked team. 2 losses would knock UGA out of the top 10. This scenario means we beat them and Mizzou beats them. That would put Mizzou in the top 10 when we beat them. 2 top 10 wins at this point in the year would definitely take us from 17 to the top 10. Not to mention that there are a ton of top 15 teams around the country playing the toughest parts of their schedule.
 
#59
#59
901 Orange said:
If it ended up in a 3 way tie we would likely be the highest ranked team. 2 losses would knock UGA out of the top 10. This scenario means we beat them and Mizzou beats them. That would put Mizzou in the top 10 when we beat them. 2 top 10 wins at this point in the year would definitely take us from 17 to the top 10. Not to mention that there are a ton of top 15 teams around the country playing the toughest parts of their schedule.
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Rankings don’t matter in a 3 way tie or any tie for the most part.

3 way tiebreakers:

-Overall head to head among tied teams (we’d win on this one being 2-0 vs UGA/MIZZOU)

If no team wins tiebreaker above, it goes to best division record, which we would likely be tied with Mizzou on at 5-1 and would be tossed to the head to head of those teams which we would win.

Rankings don’t matter as a tiebreaker.
 
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#61
#61
JMSqb11 said:
Rankings don’t matter in a 3 way tie or any tie for the most part.

3 way tiebreakers:

-Overall head to head among tied teams (we’d win on this one being 2-0 vs UGA/MIZZOU)

If no team wins tiebreaker above, it goes to best division record, which we would likely be tied with Mizzou on at 5-1 and would be tossed to the head to head of those teams which we would win.

Rankings don’t matter as a tiebreaker.
Click to expand...

Rankings can absolutely matter in a tiebreaker.
 
#62
#62
apevol said:
if the dawgs drop games to the vols and mizzou and the vols win out i see no comprehensible reason the vols aren't the highest ranked of the 3
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You don’t need to be the highest ranked. It would be a 3-way tie but we’d own the head-to-heads.
 
#63
#63
C-south said:
Rankings can absolutely matter in a tiebreaker.
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Except they don’t. There is not one tiebreaker that is determined by rankings in a 2 or 3 team scenario.

Hell a coin flip is has more impact than rankings.

Everyone keeps parroting that Ranking are a tiebreaker, yet they aren’t.
 
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#64
#64
titansvolsfaninga said:
Where did you get your crystal ball?
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You think Mizzou is going to win or even keep it close with Georgia? Hope you put your money where your mouth/keyboard is in taking mizzou +15. Tennessee will be favored by 6 or more at Mizzou. If the Saragin rating are any indicator, current UT is 15, Mizzou is 32. Do you wonder or know why?
 
#65
#65
I will say I’m super stoked as hell for the team in that their their pre season goal of winning the SEC is still statistically attainable. Sure we need a little help, but taking care of the little bros has been refreshingly sweet this year.
 
#66
#66
JMSqb11 said:
Except they don’t. There is not one tiebreaker that is determined by rankings in a 2 or 3 team scenario.

Hell a coin flip is has more impact than rankings.

Everyone keeps parroting that Ranking are a tiebreaker, yet they aren’t.
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So if you have three 1 loss teams say….Florida beats us, we beat Georgia, and Georgia beats Florida who wins that tie breaker to go to the seccg?
 
#67
#67
C-south said:
So if you have three 1 loss teams say….Florida beats us, we beat Georgia, and Georgia beats Florida who wins that tie breaker to go to the seccg?
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Tiebreaker #1, best head to head record Among the 3, which would be 1-1 each team.

Tiebreaker #2, best division record. Among the 3, Florida 4-2, Georgia 4-2/5-1, Tennessee 5-1… If 5-1 Georgia and Tennessee, it goes to head to head if the teams tied with best division record. Since Florida would be eliminated with a 4-2 East Record, its head to head with Georgia and Tennessee

Aka, RANKINGS DONT MATTER IN TIEBREAKERS. It’s shocking that people think rankings are some tie breaker just because of 3 teams are tied.
 
#69
#69
JMSqb11 said:
Tiebreaker #1, best head to head record Among the 3, which would be 1-1 each team.

Tiebreaker #2, best division record. Among the 3, Florida 4-2, Georgia 4-2/5-1, Tennessee 5-1… If 5-1 Georgia and Tennessee, it goes to head to head if the teams tied with best division record. Since Florida would be eliminated with a 4-2 East Record, its head to head with Georgia and Tennessee

Aka, RANKINGS DONT MATTER IN TIEBREAKERS. It’s shocking that people think rankings are some tie breaker just because of 3 teams are tied.
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Wtf are you talking about? If Florida beats Tennessee, Tennessee beats Georgia , and Georgia beats Florida and they all have 1 conference loss and finish the season 11-1 it will come down to the rankings. The coaches may vote but they will vote for the highest ranked team in the playoff poll. There is no head to head or anything related to any division but the east in this scenario.
 
#70
#70
JCHateSteve said:
We need UGA to lose a game other than us. After that, If we win out UGA and Mizzu aren't a problem. The 1st tie breaker is winner of the head the head. We'll have beaten both of them if we win out. Right now we need UGA to drop either Mizzu or Ole Miss and UF to lose again.
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Florida won't beat LSU.

Heck, they could lose out: Arkansas, @lsu, @Mixxou, Florida State.
 
#71
#71
GetYouSomeofThat said:
Florida could win out. However, they're almost certain to be the underdog to LSU next weekend, thus knocking them out of a 3 way tie of 2 loss teams.

They then play Mizzoo, so one of them will be taking on another loss and more than likely eliminating them.

If we win out and Georgia loses to Ole Miss, and i am not saying thats likely, the SEC East crown would almost certainly be ours.

UGA has done nothing but improve all season. Them dropping two is at best a remote possibility.
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More likely, Florida will lose out.
 
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#72
#72
If we win out and Georgia loses another SEC game, then we win the SEC east. It's really that simple. If we don't win out, then it doesn't matter. I guess Florida needs to lose another SEC game, but that should be fairly easy.
 
#74
#74
rdk4121 said:
If we win out and Georgia loses another SEC game, then we win the SEC east. It's really that simple. If we don't win out, then it doesn't matter. I guess Florida needs to lose another SEC game, but that should be fairly easy.
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Exactly but I kinda hate saying if we win out. We could win out and not win the East. We really need to pull for Mizzou this week.
 
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