Pac 12/Big 12 Merger?

[Pennheel]

This has all got to lead to a massive realignment soon. It’s gotten out of hand, and while what we know as the “NCAA” is all but obsolete, another governing body will have to take power at some point…and there will have to be some sort of quashing of this Wild West mentality of taking the money and running. Not one broadcast outlet that has ever existed will ever to be able to afford to supplement 3 or 4 super awesome power conferences at $1 Billion each, which is what the end goal is here. There is a breaking point, and it’s coming. College football is a very valuable commodity, but they are not as valuable as they think TV deals are currently paying. To hell with every athletic director and university president who is involved in trying to poach this train to irreparable harm.

Absolutely..... While it's fun to speculate on who goes where and what school would fit better at, I also think that it's got to come to a point where enough is enough as far as schools leaving conferences at the drop of a hat for that big (mostly) football money. The breaking point will indeed come sooner than later because it's just became far too easy to pay an exit fee to leave your conference you've been in for ages. I'm a big basketball fan,and I'd hate to see the ACC disband over a football central issue. It's a short term mentality that's caused this,and it won't last forever.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Absolutely..... While it's fun to speculate on who goes where and what school would fit better at, I also think that it's got to come to a point where enough is enough as far as schools leaving conferences at the drop of a hat for that big (mostly) football money. The breaking point will indeed come sooner than later because it's just became far too easy to pay an exit fee to leave your conference you've been in for ages. I'm a big basketball fan,and I'd hate to see the ACC disband over a football central issue. It's a short term mentality that's caused this,and it won't last forever.

I think the issue is that since TV money will ultimately be shrinking with the death of cable, it is easier for the networks to pay more now for content they know will generate revenue rather than subsidize conferences with lesser-followed programs. Why would ESPN pay 100s of millions of dollars to the ACC when they can take some of that same money to bolster a more popular product while taking the better programs from the weaker conference. Thus, by shifting teams like UNC, FSU, & Clemson to the SEC they can get out of having to fund a TV deal for the likes of Boston College, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.

Personally, all I want is for UNC to be in the SEC. I don’t care who else comes with them. That Carolina blue is a perfect complement to Tennessee Orange, and would probably be a great rivalry.

 

[GreyWolf1129]

Most of the teams you mentioned don't really bring much to the table except UNC in basketball. The thing is, I'm looking at it from a market standpoint. Oregon and Washington have significant markets that aren't tapped into by the SEC. They both travel well and have good income into their programs. Geographically, they don't make sense.

Financially and from a competitive standpoint, they do. Maybe not Stanford as much, but the other three do add value to the conference overall.

Plus, when (not if) the SEC expands again, I'd prefer not to have the leftovers from the Great Conference Realignment of 2023. Get the quality teams now. The money will come.

You're absolutely right. But I think the next push is east, into ACC territory. I just don't see the SEC moving into the left coast time zone, for reasons previously stated.

I think the SEC tries to lock down everything worth having east of the Mississippi, and south of DC. Plus (obviously) Texas, TXAM, Arky, and OU. Oh...and Mizzou (had to give Vandy someone to compete with).

So I'm thinking UNC, NCSU, VT, UVA, and maybe WVU. Pick four. That puts the SEC at 20 teams once TX and OU come on board in '24.

I'm wrong a lot. Maybe they stay south, and go west. Oklahoma State...TCU...SMU...and who?

Nah...next move is east. Too obvious. Lock down the southeastern coastal states. Nothing left in Florida to care or worry about. Including FSU.

So we'll see.

Go Vols.

 

[turbovol]

Over time we'll see the same issues with absurd 20-team conferences that we've seen with 12-team conferences. The more successful
football programs will get more exposure, get more of their games broadcast on TV, and the leaders of those schools will start arguing that they deserve a bigger slice of the TV rights revenue pie. It's why Oklahoma and Texas left the Big12, and it's why FSU is whining about the structure of the ACC TV deal and trying to bully the conference into giving it a bigger slice of the pie--and FSU is not even top 3 in basketball and has not been especially good in football for a few years. It's all got completely ridiculous.

As for ACC schools possible joining the SEC, including UNC and/or others, those schools have had lacrosse (men and women) and field hockey (women)
programs for many years that I assume they will be loathe to give up. May not be a big issue, but it would be a factor.

 

[GreyWolf1129]

Over time we'll see the same issues with absurd 20-team conferences that we've seen with 12-team conferences. The more successful
football programs will get more exposure, get more of their games broadcast on TV, and the leaders of those schools will start arguing that they deserve a bigger slice of the TV rights revenue pie. It's why Oklahoma and Texas left the Big12, and it's why FSU is whining about the structure of the ACC TV deal and trying to bully the conference into giving it a bigger slice of the pie--and FSU is not even top 3 in basketball and has not been especially good in football for a few years. It's all got completely ridiculous.

As for ACC schools possible joining the SEC, including UNC and/or others, those schools have had lacrosse (men and women) and field hockey (women)
programs for many years that I assume they will be loathe to give up. May not be a big issue, but it would be a factor.

They won't have to give them up when they're swimming in (mega) millions in football revenue.

 

[Dadof2Vols]

I think the issue is that since TV money will ultimately be shrinking with the death of cable, it is easier for the networks to pay more now for content they know will generate revenue rather than subsidize conferences with lesser-followed programs. Why would ESPN pay 100s of millions of dollars to the ACC when they can take some of that same money to bolster a more popular product while taking the better programs from the weaker conference. Thus, by shifting teams like UNC, FSU, & Clemson to the SEC they can get out of having to fund a TV deal for the likes of Boston College, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.

Personally, all I want is for UNC to be in the SEC. I don’t care who else comes with them. That Carolina blue is a perfect complement to Tennessee Orange, and would probably be a great rivalry.

This post is 100% spot on. Media money is drying up….the alignment changes for dollars is fools gold.

 

[BUBear]

Possibly but Big12 Commissioner wants UConn for Basketball. They are on the short list. I could see this setup.

UConn and Gonzaga will be basketball only members of the BIG XII soon enough.

 

[Pennheel]

[QUOTE="OrangeEtBlanc, post: 22940529, member: 82210"

Personally, all I want is for UNC to be in the SEC. I don’t care who else comes with them. That Carolina blue is a perfect complement to Tennessee Orange, and would probably be a great rivalry.[/QUOTE]


I can definitely agree with you there,@OrangeEtBlanc ... I'd enjoy UT vs UNC in both basketball and football on a yearly basis.

 

[Dudleys87]

[QUOTE="OrangeEtBlanc, post: 22940529, member: 82210"

Personally, all I want is for UNC to be in the SEC. I don’t care who else comes with them. That Carolina blue is a perfect complement to Tennessee Orange, and would probably be a great rivalry.

I can definitely agree with you there,@OrangeEtBlanc ... I'd enjoy UT vs UNC in both basketball and football on a yearly basis.[/QUOTE]


It was brought up on local sports radio this past week and like him or not I’ll give Sankey one thing at least he’s not in panic mode. All the other conferences scrambling adding anyone to get more teams. I’m sure that if they come calling they’ll give it serious thought but the SEC will have to make room for Duke imo.

@Pennheel

 

[hUTch2002]

I can definitely agree with you there,@OrangeEtBlanc ... I'd enjoy UT vs UNC in both basketball and football on a yearly basis.

It was brought up on local sports radio this past week and like him or not I’ll give Sankey one thing at least he’s not in panic mode. All the other conferences scrambling adding anyone to get more teams. I’m sure that if they come calling they’ll give it serious thought but the SEC will have to make room for Duke imo.

@Pennheel[/QUOTE]
Sankey has no need to panic. SEC dominates sports already and is adding 2 historic programs next year. While the Big 10 adding the Pac12’s top teams will certainly make it a stronger conference from a competitive standpoint, those teams don’t have as strong a fan following like you see in the South and now they have to deal with crazy scheduling, travel and time zone issues. Don’t get me wrong, I can’t wait to see Ohio State have to play more than 1-2 games each year but the SEC will still be a far superior brand.

 

[SpookyAction]

You're absolutely right. But I think the next push is east, into ACC territory. I just don't see the SEC moving into the left coast time zone, for reasons previously stated.

I think the SEC tries to lock down everything worth having east of the Mississippi, and south of DC. Plus (obviously) Texas, TXAM, Arky, and OU. Oh...and Mizzou (had to give Vandy someone to compete with).

So I'm thinking UNC, NCSU, VT, UVA, and maybe WVU. Pick four. That puts the SEC at 20 teams once TX and OU come on board in '24.

I'm wrong a lot. Maybe they stay south, and go west. Oklahoma State...TCU...SMU...and who?

Nah...next move is east. Too obvious. Lock down the southeastern coastal states. Nothing left in Florida to care or worry about. Including FSU.

So we'll see.

Go Vols.

WVU is a cheap and easy date, but they aren't a program you bring to the SEC. They are Mizzou without the population and demographics. and No tv market.
The Carolina and VA schools bring value, but UNC and UVA would be the crown jewels for the ACC. VATech has been DOA for over a decade, and NCSt doesn't deliver anything UNC won't give the conference. UVA also has a bigger and far more lucrative alumni association than VATech.

I honestly believe NCSt is more valuable an asset to the SEC than either Clemson or FSU. They bring eyes, but not one new TV market.

 

[SpookyAction]

Over time we'll see the same issues with absurd 20-team conferences that we've seen with 12-team conferences. The more successful
football programs will get more exposure, get more of their games broadcast on TV, and the leaders of those schools will start arguing that they deserve a bigger slice of the TV rights revenue pie. It's why Oklahoma and Texas left the Big12, and it's why FSU is whining about the structure of the ACC TV deal and trying to bully the conference into giving it a bigger slice of the pie--and FSU is not even top 3 in basketball and has not been especially good in football for a few years. It's all got completely ridiculous.

As for ACC schools possible joining the SEC, including UNC and/or others, those schools have had lacrosse (men and women) and field hockey (women)
programs for many years that I assume they will be loathe to give up. May not be a big issue, but it would be a factor.

They can be affiliate members with another conference for those sports, like UT and BAMA are affiliate members of the BIG XII for women's rowing.

 

[SpookyAction]

I don't think any school is chained to their in-state rivals like they were a decade ago. If one is invited to the big dance now, they go.
In the ACC, they would have to destroy the conference to get out, but that is definitely possible after this week. If I was ACC president, I would be looking at lining up 2-4 new members.

 

[OrangeUTopia]

Apple and Amazon are both building their own customized live field broadcast trucks from the ground up. They don’t need ESPN’s services.

ESPN doesn’t own any production trucks. Like most networks they just contract with truck companies.

But the wave of the future which we have seen in the SEC and ACC is having the schools upgrade their in house video facilities and have them do the actual broadcasts using a combination of staff, students, local freelancers at a well below market rate. No trucks needed and labor is cheap.

 

[volbound1700]

My theories on why Pac12 fell a part. (I think it is more than just Larry Scott);

1. Poor Financial Decisions (Pac12 Network) - I am not going to explain, plenty of sources out there that explain it better than I could but this was notable one. Larry Scott seem to drive a lot of these errors. I want to get into some of the lesser known reasons.

2. Changing Dynamics in CFB - Arms race with B1G and SEC for relevance which is also driving the collapse of ACC and diminishing of Big12 with OU and Texas leaving. Big names are consolidating into two leagues (it may one day be a single league)

3. Lack of Football Programs on West Coast - This is something new that I want to add. It is a BIG reason for the Financial problems and perhaps diminishment/weak branding on West Coast.

I made a post somewhere that California has about as many FBS teams as Louisiana (7 for Cali to 5 for Louisiana). The Pac12, as a result, has been geographically spread out. USC going to Oregon or Washington is the equivalent to Tennessee going to Minnesota or Boston College from a geographical standpoint. SEC teams are just a lot closer than Pac12 teams. SEC teams also have far greater option for games. Take LSU, they can schedule Tulane, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe, Houston, Baylor, TCU, Arkansas State, Southern Miss, UAB, Troy, Memphis, and MTSU OOC within the same range as USC only being able to schedule San Diego State OOC.

Pac12 teams have had to travel a lot for OOC games as a result (along with Conference games) resulting in more difficult travel for fans and more financial strain. SEC had two Power Conferences and three G5 Conferences on their door step. B1G is in a similar position.

This also made expansion for Pac12 very difficult as they didn't have many candidates unless they added teams far from their epicenter. SEC can add teams in neighboring states such as Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, or even schools like FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, etc. and improve their league. Who does the Pac12 have other than traveling to Texas? Their options are a lot weaker with BYU, UNLV, Boise State, Hawaii, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc. Not the same cache as available to SEC or B1G with expansion.

4. Diminishing product on West Coast - Some of this is impacted by #2 and #3. LA, San Francisco, and Seattle are primarily pro sport cities with USC getting some attention in LA at times. The culture just doesn't match that with the B1G and SEC. SEC likely benefited by not having Pro Sports teams until very late in the game so loyalties grew up with a college focus. Even today some states (such as Alabama) have no Pro Sport teams. The Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and to a degree even the Tennessee Titans live in the shadow of their local College program.

Pac12 also hasn't competed often at top level of Football and their stronger teams lately are far from the population centers (Oregon and Utah). USC struggling actually hurt the league and its brand.

 

[GTBATV]

Pac-4: Conference of Champions

 

[Dadof2Vols]

ESPN doesn’t own any production trucks. Like most networks they just contract with truck companies.

But the wave of the future which we have seen in the SEC and ACC is having the schools upgrade their in house video facilities and have them do the actual broadcasts using a combination of staff, students, local freelancers at a well below market rate. No trucks needed and labor is cheap.

Agreed on ESPN as I know them really well but I have seen the plans and pictures of the trucks under design for the new streamers as they have deep pockets to build out their trucks customized for them.

Also agree in the future the schools will do more of the heavy lifting onsite for all other sports except maybe football/basketball.

 

[bamawriter]

They can be affiliate members with another conference for those sports, like UT and BAMA are affiliate members of the BIG XII for women's rowing.

I've been wondering about this. With OU and Texas on the way, will the SEC start sponsoring women's rowing? You only need 4 teams to form a conference for the olympic sports.

 

[spyfish007]

Pac-4: Conference of Champions

Oh wow that site is brutal satire.

 

[TNnative]

If the Big 10 wants to entice Notre Dame they really have to go after Stanford. Notre Dame's TV deal is up soon so they have some decisions to make. Notre Dame, Stanford, Oregon and Washington make alot of sense to me. Notre Dame would have natural rivals USC, Stanford, Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue all in the same conference. These teams leave the Pac-10/12, than that league is toast. Leftovers can join the Big 12 and all that is left is ACC.

Notre Dame is a joke, and even Notre Dame knows it. Or at least they should. They have zero intention to be a full member of any conference. So, suggesting anyone "entIce" them to join one is wasting their time. They are still under the delusion that their history still has prestige. Well, there are fewer fans living who remember or ever believed in the Fighting Irish's so called greatness. and the number gets lower every day. One thing for certain: The number of recruits who remember it? None unless their parents have tons of old video of it.

As to the PAC 12 being toast? Before it is over with, all of them will be. Which eventually will lead to the NCAA being toast. Perhaps the one result that truly makes sense. Only thing I know for sure is I saw this coming a long time ago. But I did not realize it would come this quickly.