Perspective: Where Tennessee is as a program under Josh Heupel, Year 3

[NighthawkVol]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

 

[bofa25]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

Perspective is everything. Tennessee is so close to elite and everyone wants it right now. I have a feeling that (if) things get going with Nico like they should, there will be no stopping Tennessee.

 

[SFBayVol]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

Good post. I wrote a similar post in another thread to point out how I think what elite coaches do/dont and what I wish to see growth from CJH as HC. One thing I'd point out is Saban had far more head coaching experience when he took over LSU than Heupel had when he took over UT. Saban had coached in big 10 (MSU) for 5 full seasons with NFL coordinator experience and one-year at Toledo (vs CJH's 3 years at UCF with one year being covid year). Also Saban won SECCG in his 2nd year (beat Fulmer's team as 7pt underdog). From Year 3 performance (yet to be concluded) I don't think CJH is that far behind if he only loses to Georgia from now on, but I also wanted to point out many good but not great coaches (Mark Richt, Les Miles, etc) had pretty amazing records in early years so Year 3 isn't necessarily a good indicator for elite level coaches who can win 3+ national championships. One thing pretty amazing tho is Kirby Smart. Arguably he took over a better program (Georgia) than when Saban took over Bama, but in his 2nd year Smart won SEC, won Rose and lost in NCG, had his team ranked 2nd and then made NY6 bowls in consecutive seasons in Year 3-5 before winning NCG back to back. In my opinion he's on his track to surpass Saban to be the greatest.

 

[TNVOLFN]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

The negas are going to call you a sunshine pumper.

Funny thing is they rarely have the same expectations for themselves as they do other people (Coach Heupel), go figure.

 

[volbound1700]

I hate where the team is this year and think Heupel has had questionable calls... however, our program as a whole is in good hands with Heupel. We are competitive now, something we were not the last 15 years. The recruiting is still doing well and we are closing gaps.

Need another solid QB and some better WRs to get us over the hump again.

I think next year maybe another 8-9 win season (I feel like we will win at least 8 games this year, maybe 9 if we can beat both UK and Mizzou). However, year 5 could be a breakout year similar to 2022 or better. I also see some of our competition starting to go down although Oklahoma and Texas are starting to scare me as both programs seem to be trending up.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Good post. I wrote a similar post in another thread to point out how I think what elite coaches do/dont and what I wish to see growth from CJH as HC. One thing I'd point out is Saban had far more head coaching experience when he took over LSU than Heupel had when he took over UT. Saban had coached in big 10 (MSU) for 5 full seasons with NFL coordinator experience and one-year at Toledo (vs CJH's 3 years at UCF with one year being covid year). Also Saban won SECCG in his 2nd year (beat Fulmer's team as 7pt underdog). From Year 3 performance (yet to be concluded) I don't think CJH is that far behind if he only loses to Georgia from now on, but I also wanted to point out many good but not great coaches (Mark Richt, Les Miles, etc) had pretty amazing records in early years so Year 3 isn't necessarily a good indicator for elite level coaches who can win 3+ national championships. One thing pretty amazing tho is Kirby Smart. Arguably he took over a better program (Georgia) than when Saban took over Bama, but in his 2nd year Smart won SEC, won Rose and lost in NCG, had his team ranked 2nd and then made NY6 bowls in consecutive seasons in Year 3-5 before winning NCG back to back. In my opinion he's on his track to surpass Saban to be the greatest.

Yeah, I mentioned that Saban (and Harbaugh) had more overall coaching experience in the OP.

Kirby took over a MUCH better situation than Saban. Or any of the others in this discussion. The only coach I can think of who took over a situation as good as the one Kirby took over is Fulmer. And Kirby is a much better coach than Fulmer. I guess Ryan Day took over a similarly good situation.

 

[NighthawkVol]

I hate where the team is this year and think Heupel has had questionable calls... however, our program as a whole is in good hands with Heupel. We are competitive now, something we were not the last 15 years. The recruiting is still doing well and we are closing gaps.

Need another solid QB and some better WRs to get us over the hump again.

I think next year maybe another 8-9 win season (I feel like we will win at least 8 games this year, maybe 9 if we can beat both UK and Mizzou). However, year 5 could be a breakout year similar to 2022 or better. I also see some of our competition starting to go down although Oklahoma and Texas are starting to scare me as both programs seem to be trending up.

Next year’s ceiling is entirely dependent on what we get in the portal on the OLine and how much better the WRs can get.

 

[wesley21]

We are still losing to Florida and bama. I’m sure Georgia this year too ! I guess we should be happy

 

[Clad in Big Orange]

Some good points but too soon in my opinion. Still at play, 11-2 or 7-6. Two very different indicators of where the program is.

 

[SFBayVol]

Something tells me that CJH treats/prepares SEC road games the same way as home games. In theory there's nothing wrong but in general teams at home get more favorable calls, tend to play harder, not to mention the noises, etc. That 38-63 loss to Chicken is purely inexcusable with a much much better team. You dont see elite coaches losing SEC road games this fashion.

Like Athletics' Joe Rexrode wrote today"

"Heupel got a friendly question about the Crimson Tide being allowed to play “Mortal Kombat” without repercussion, and he responded with a dramatic pause in appreciation.

“Next question,” Heupel finally said. “Yeah, was that a long enough silence?”

It was similar to the amount of time it took Alabama to turn 30 minutes of excellent Tennessee football into something you knew wasn’t going to hold up. And that’s a more pressing issue for Heupel to address than sending the SEC the cut-ups of all the calls he didn’t like"

Harsh? maybe, but great leaders and elite coaches focus on the right things. Get your team more prepared, CJH.

 

[TennBama]

In all honesty we are not in a bad place. We are sad over a probable 9 win regular season and a 14 game neyland streak. Yeah we expect to win games against fla and bama now, we didnt 4 ywars ago. Undefeated at home, we just hoped we didnt get donkey punched at one point, and yes that was even during the 2015-16 era.

Can he be better, yes.
Do we leave plays on the field, yes.
Are we still a re emerging power. Yes.
Are we digressing, debatable as Hooker was a major get we dint even think was good enough to start over milton in 2021.

Yesterday we got stuck in a spot where many good teams do in Trashtown, a rock and a blind official.

 

[Flipdaddy]

I’m very pleased with where we are considering what Heupel has had to work with year 3, we just need some more dogs son!!! Go Vols!!!

 

[cjbongoinstructor]

Very good post - only thing I’d offer up for discussion is what is the actual probability of getting 4 stud SEC caliber OL in the portal? I think we are all hoping thats the fix for next year but just doesn’t seem realistic

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

Good perspective. As frustrating as yesterday was, in so many years past that game is over in the first half. Competent officiating and take away a couple 4th down blunders and we win outright.

 

[sami]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

Excellent post. In many ways, 2022 was the worst thing that could happen for this fan base. I wouldn't trade it for anything, but it created some completely unrealistic expectations in the fan base only a couple of years after Heupel inherited a virtual train wreck.

Realistically, this was minimum a 4-5 year fix to get back to competing for SEC championships and being a national contender on an annual basis in the best case scenario. The fact that we're here in what is de facto year 2 1/2 of Heupel is more than satisfactory, and when you consider what he has in the pipeline in recruiting, the future looks very bright.

He's got things to work on regarding the portal and game management like any young coach in the SEC pressure cooker, but it's hard to take anyone unhappy with the progress this program has made very seriously.

 

[Orangeslice13]

We are still losing to Florida and bama. I’m sure Georgia this year too ! I guess we should be happy

Find something else to do with your Saturday

 

[Rocky Top T]

We will be a 8 win team on average for a while unless we get much better on the offensive line. The conference is only gonna get harder in the future.

 

[Gandalf]

This is an excellent perspective piece BUT it does overlook one important point. Namely, that the growth of these previous coaches was done in a time before the Portal and NIL.

I am not sure exactly what impact that has but I am absolutely sure that it has a good bit. I think it makes it easier for a coach to reload but then it is also much less easy to keep solid players if things go south for a moment.

Time will tell, CJH is young and when he gets it right, it is oh, so very right - when he lays an egg (like the second half yesterday) its horrid.

I think also considering the dumpster fire we had become and the difficulty of even getting a coach, much less a good one, we were very very lucky to have gotten Danny White who then secured Heupel.

We forget that the whole reason we are now disappointed this year is because last year was so good.

CJH looks to have the fundamentals and the intangibles to grow into a great coach in time - but that is not something anyone has a lot of in today's big money programs.

 

[CAVPUT]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

I'm sure your opus makes a lot of valid points, but in a nutshell, Heupel inherited a complete mess of a roster. On top of that, he took on this job under threat of the NCAA and it gutted almost an entire recruiting class creating a massive gap in development/experience. Time will tell if his recruiting is up to snuff, but therein lies the rub....time. This fan base isn't keen on anything other than winning every game and right now. He's struggling with this gap in experience and depth this year and will again next season. This might technically be year 3, but in my mind this is year 2 due to losing that class. Give him a couple more years of recruiting and portal activity then we'll have a good picture of where we stand under Heupel.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Good perspective and breakdown @NighthawkVol . You made some very good points and observations. I think this coming weekend could also be a very important chapter in Heupel’s tenure here so far. There’s no way to spin this past weekend, other than it was a deflating defeat. Can we go on the road and win at night against an opponent in what we be a very hostile environment after an excruciating loss to a bitter rival? Can Heupel and the staff push the right buttons to get us up for a game after it feels like any hope for a division championship are gone?

 

[DonDiego]

Let's not forget, there is a tiny chance that CJH doesn't have a year three setback and goes 10-2 on the regular season...I said tiny. There is also a less tiny chance he'll go 7-5, which looks a lot more like OP's scenarios. My guess is something in between, 8-4 or 9-3, which still isn't all that shabby. I'll keep him.

 

[Remy]

Year 3 assessment: If we lose to UGA, we're right back to 3 losses per year minimum to UF, UGA, and Bama. I like Heupel. I want him to succeed wildly. But this is big boy SEC football and you are what and who your numbers say you are.

 

[CAVPUT]

Year 3 assessment: If we lose to UGA, we're right back to 3 losses per year minimum to UF, UGA, and Bama. I like Heupel. I want him to succeed wildly. But this is big boy SEC football and you are what and who your numbers say you are.

While I agree with the sentiment, do you think it's fair to judge him given the situation/circumstances he walked into? It's almost certain that he'll lose to UGA to complete the trifecta, but is that an accurate metric to use at this point in the rebuild?

 

[Other_Guy]

Year 3 assessment: If we lose to UGA, we're right back to 3 losses per year minimum to UF, UGA, and Bama. I like Heupel. I want him to succeed wildly. But this is big boy SEC football and you are what and who your numbers say you are.

I'll pushback some. Let's say he would trade wins with Florida, not winning in the swamp.
Bama and Georgia are still on a different level right now.
He beat Bama last year. Let's see how Goergia goes at home.
You're also forgetting the new format coming. Could lose these annual rivalries and Tenn actually have an easier year multiple times.
Next year isn't going to be pretty either with so many guys leaving. If Heupel isn't 11-1 in year 5 then it's a definite answer that he isn't winning anything. I want to keep him at 9-3 or 10-2 for as long as it takes to find the RIGHT guy like hoq Georgia did.

 

[BSAvol]

I'm disappointed in yesterday. I do like Heupel; he has longevity that Saban doesn't. The future is bright and Josh, along with Banks got a lesson yesterday; one I hope they don't ever forget. I think slick Nick used the old Muhammed Ali rope-a dope tactic. UT took their shots in the first half and when feeling confident Alabama landed a haymaker in the first two plays of the second half. UT couldn't recover.

Josh is still quite young as a head coach. The cagey vet humbled CJH and staff. I truly hope it is the sort of lesson we hate to learn, but one that makes the team better. Heupel and staff are going to need to recruit and develop better. The climb may be slower than we all hope, but I think CJH is building a program. Yesterday's humbling may prove to be a valuable gift from Old Nick.