Perspective: Where Tennessee is as a program under Josh Heupel, Year 3

[hardyemt_p]

We're in great hands with Heuple, wish he'd consider punting sometime, or get under center with our 6'5 250 lb QB

 

[Remy]

While I agree with the sentiment, do you think it's fair to judge him given the situation/circumstances he walked into? It's almost certain that he'll lose to UGA to complete the trifecta, but is that an accurate metric to use at this point in the rebuild?

I'm not judging him. His numbers are there to be assessed. Again if he puts a team on the field this season which loses to UGA, we're right back to putting teams on the field who loses to our big 3. His numbers say who and what this season's team is/was. It's a hard say and a tough business. We all knew Butch Jones had to go his second 9-3 season he produced for example. Sentiment kept him around for his disastrous last season at UT. I'm not for any HC of UT football that routinely cannot beat our Big 3 or one of them minimum every season.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Really think about where we are right now. I mean really think. We are now in a position where we are entering the Bama game thinking we have a real shot at winning. I have seen posts having confidence in beating UGA. I mean we are now at a place where saying 8-4 is a disappointing season. That’s crazy.

Our program is in the best shape it’s been in since Fulmers prime. Has Heupel made some really bad coaching decisions? Yes. Has he cost us games? Yes. He has done a phenomenal job. With what he walked into, I am totally shocked at where we are at honestly. I think we are in great hands and cannot wait to see what the future holds.

 

[Remy]

Really think about where we are right now. I mean really think. We are now in a position where we are entering the Bama game thinking we have a real shot at winning. I have seen posts having confidence in beating UGA. I mean we are now at a place where saying 8-4 is a disappointing season. That’s crazy.

Our program is in the best shape it’s been in since Fulmers prime. Has Heupel made some really bad coaching decisions? Yes. Has he cost us games? Yes. He has done a phenomenal job. With what he walked into, I am totally shocked at where we are at honestly. I think we are in great hands and cannot wait to see what the future holds.

UT VOLS 2023 8-4. Hang a banner

 

[CAVPUT]

I'm not judging him. His numbers are there to be assessed. Again if he puts a team on the field this season which loses to UGA, we're right back to putting teams on the field who loses to our big 3. His numbers say who and what this season's team is/was. It's a hard say and a tough business. We all knew Butch Jones had to go his second 9-3 season he produced for example. Sentiment kept him around for his disastrous last season at UT. I'm not for any HC of UT football that routinely cannot beat our Big 3 or one of them minimum every season.

Well, I'll give you Florida hasn't been so hot, but Bama has 6 regular season losses since 2018. UGA is aiming for a 3rd straight natty and hasn't lost in forever is seems. Both those teams have lived in the top 5 of recruiting over the last 5 years and both have had #1 classes over that period of time. How do you expect any coach to do any better than Heupel in the middle of year 3 with one of our recruiting classe gutted by the NCAA debacle when no one else is beating these guys on a regular basis? Don't you think that's just a little unreasonable not to mention unrealistic?

 

[VOLfrombama]

im still on the fence about the whole thing. I really want to like Heup, I like the culture, the offseason program seems to work to some degree although it looked like bama and aTm were much bigger as a team. USCjrs defense looked bigger too. Gonna have to get some dudes to stop them.

Heup does some weird things during the game. Last year and the year before it was his use of timeouts and clock. This year its the aggressive 4th down calls when you have a huge weapon at punter. I also dont think they know how to make adjustments during a game. They had to know Saban would and nothing they were doing worked in the 2nd half. So why were they able to do so much 1st half? Why weren’t they ready for the adjustments? Maybe theyre still learning on the job?

It’s concerning that the whole team has letdowns midgame. I view that as a lack of leadership, and that starts at the top. Saban challenged his guys at halftime and they responded. I don’t think I have ever heard Heup challenge his players.Could be wrong though as not much leaks from the locker room. I understand they have a different coaching style but man they needed someone at the end of the 3rd quarter to rattle some cages.

The OL and interior DL are a mess and I don’t know who on the roster can fix it. We dont seem to have a plan for who the OL will be next season. I understand the scholarship situation and that this is a long term fix. But why do they not have a backup center? These issues baffle me to some degree.

I will remain on the fence until they prove they are ready for the big time. I want them to succeed, but they can’t get out of their own way sometimes and it shows in the W/L column.

 

[Remy]

Well, I'll give you Florida hasn't been so hot, but Bama has 6 regular season losses since 2018. UGA is aiming for a 3rd straight natty and hasn't lost in forever is seems. Both those teams have lived in the top 5 of recruiting over the last 5 years and both have had #1 classes over that period of time. How do you expect any coach to do any better than Heupel in the middle of year 3 with one of our recruiting classe gutted by the NCAA debacle when no one else is beating these guys on a regular basis? Don't you think that's just a little unreasonable not to mention unrealistic?

No I don't. We'll have to agree to disagree. There should nary a season go by where we do not beat one of the Big 3. When we do not 2 years in a row something is amiss with the program and notice needs to be taken imo. I do not think it's realistic to beat all 3 in one season routinely, but we should every now and then like once every 8 or 9 years not once in 2 or 3 decades.

 

[Carl Pickens]

It’s a hell of a lot better than before he got here…. That’s all I know and all I care about

 

[a vol n tears]

UT VOLS 2023 8-4. Hang a banner

CJH’s 2+season winning % is very close to UTs historical winning %
I‘ll let others debates good or bad
Just like every record, times and rules change, so it is hard to compare one era to another.

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

Good post. I am part of the crowd who needed to step back from the ledge yesterday and this is a good bit of perspective. Hoping for the best from this staff the rest of the season and over the course of the next few.

 

[NighthawkVol]

UT VOLS 2023 8-4. Hang a banner

And to think, I even disclaimed in the first sentence.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

UT VOLS 2023 8-4. Hang a banner

Cry about it some more. Suits you well.

 

[JPL]

Perspective is everything. Tennessee is so close to elite and everyone wants it right now. I have a feeling that (if) things get going with Nico like they should, there will be no stopping Tennessee.

Agree, so why not start playing Nico now…?

 

[volfanhill]

Our fan base is full of idiots

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

Thank you for the very detailed and though out evaluation. You covered everything very fair and rationally. I pretty much agree with everything you said. What I like about Heupel is he seems to own mistakes and will learn from them. He has a great football mind and is still evolving as a head coach. He he all the support and resources has the desire to succeed and appears to love it here. I thought the silence to the 2 hand touch versus mortal combat question was awesome. Had he said boo the sec would have tried to fine him. They sure can’t fine him for silence. Like they say silence is worth a thousand words. GBO!

 

[DuckInAPen]

UT VOLS 2023 8-4. Hang a banner

8-4 would be a disappointment to most of us, but even 7-5 would mark the first time we've strung together three consecutive winning seasons since 2004. Given where we've been, that's not nothing.

Edit: I forgot that Jones had three consecutive winning seasons.

 

[Carp]

Good write up. I mentioned before the season that people should temper expectations this year considering the guys we lost, and that 8-4 or 9-3 was probably more likely. I was lambasted by many for such a prediction.

And yet here we sit after week 8 at 5-2, and we still have an opportunity to beat my predictions if we win out (still totally possible, but a tough road ahead). We are still heading in the right direction as a program.

 

[Mccage]

He’s a gift horse and I ain’t looking him in the mouth!!

 

[ReelfootVol]

I totally understand why the Long Pause by Coach Heupel........................regarding the officiating. Home cooking for sure was very obvious too. Almost as bad as the obvious bias that the announcers had . Strictly my opinion and I have every right to express it.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Very good post - only thing I’d offer up for discussion is what is the actual probability of getting 4 stud SEC caliber OL in the portal? I think we are all hoping thats the fix for next year but just doesn’t seem realistic

That’s a good question. While tampering is illegal, I’m sure it happens. I wonder if they have an idea of who might be in the portal. Using your own player connections is one way of getting that intel. John Campbell came to UT to block for his high school teammate Joe Milton…was Milton relaying info to and from Campbell before he was officially in the portal? Is Nico in communication with Francis MauIgoa, for example? I’m sure there are plenty of other ways teams send out feelers and this staff has known for awhile that they need a bunch of OL in the 2024 portal class, so they’re certainly been evaluating that situation longer and harder than they ordinarily would.

I think Mincey returns, but Mays, Campbell, and Spraggjns are likely gone. Mincey is the LT next year. Hopefully, Karic develops at LG (Elarbee likes him, but he needs to add weight and strength). Lang is likely the heir apparent at Center. The entire right side is up for grabs, though. Hopefully, Nichols and Umarov develop, but we need more legit bodies competing for those spots.

 

[chuck0303]

Disclaimer: this post is not for the all-is-lost, fire everybody crowd. I'm not telling anyone how to feel, but if that's your mindset, this post isn't for you. I want to discuss where this program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed. And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left. The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good
-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.
2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).
3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.
4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.
5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.

Excellent. The only point I would make is I thought they were putting more emphasis on recruiting for the defense the past year or so because it needed it badly, and as you point out, now maybe it's time to up the recruiting for the offensive line.

 

[Go aeiou]

Perspective is everything. Tennessee is so close to elite and everyone wants it right now. I have a feeling that (if) things get going with Nico like they should, there will be no stopping Tennessee.

Gonna need some receivers that can get seperation from their defenders.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Excellent. The only point I would make is I thought they were putting more emphasis on recruiting for the defense the past year or so because it needed it badly, and as you point out, now maybe it's time to up the recruiting for the offensive line.

Good point, especially with the recruiting limitations they’ve been dealing with.

 

[sonofUT62]

Year 3 assessment: If we lose to UGA, we're right back to 3 losses per year minimum to UF, UGA, and Bama. I like Heupel. I want him to succeed wildly. But this is big boy SEC football and you are what and who your numbers say you are.

True. Another way to look at it is that if he loses to UGA, he’ll finish year 3 with the same number of wins against UGA/ Bama/Florida and LSU that the previous FOUR coaches had in 12 years.

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

It’s been posted before but I agree that the million dollar question is the offensive line for next year. It doesn’t matter how good your 5 star QB is if he has poor protection. I cringed when they showed how many seniors we have starting on the O-line the other day.