Playoff Projections

#26
#26
dobre_shunka said:
I don't see the committe putting a 2 loss Tennessee team in the top 12. They seem focused on the Arkansas loss. Plus since a Heupel team isn't scoring 50+ per game, there is an attitude Tennessee isn't that good regardless of the record.
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Committee members likely value defense. Media and AP not so much
 
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#27
#27
VolunteerVFL said:
who do we want to win the Ohio State/Indiana game?
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We want Ohio State to beat them 66-3. This will be Indiana’s only game against a ranked opponent and if they get blown out their 11-1 record still won’t get them in. But if they keep it relatively close they might still be in the top 12 like PSU.

We also need Ole Miss to not show up in the swamp next week and get upset.
 
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#28
#28
Yanks24 said:
Very little chance that a 1 loss Indiana and 1 loss Penn state aren’t in playoffs. They are getting a lot of love even tho their schedules are pretty pitiful. IF ut is 10-2, it will depend on who the committe favors between us and ole piss
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Agreed. And since we have similar SOS it would come down to common opponents: UK, ARK, OU, UGA, UF, MSU

Ole Miss 5-1, Tennessee 3-2

Because of that I don’t think we measure up well against them. IF we don’t beat UGA we’d need them to lose in the swamp I think
 
#29
#29
Sarms58 said:
Notre Damn (😂) gets one of the seven open seeds and the remains six are split evenly between the SEC and Big 10.
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Where did you come up with this one? There’s no even split. It’s whoever is rated highest by the CFP committee gets the at-large bids.
 
#31
#31
Yanks24 said:
Very little chance that a 1 loss Indiana and 1 loss Penn state aren’t in playoffs. They are getting a lot of love even tho their schedules are pretty pitiful. IF ut is 10-2, it will depend on who the committe favors between us and ole piss.
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This is the BIG problem with these mega conferences. From now on you're going to have an Indiana type team (actually Texas is almost as bad) who basically play 1 big game and the rest are garbage teams.

I just pray for the day that Tennessee gets this opportunity.
 
#33
#33
Sarms58 said:
We want Ohio State to beat them 66-3. This will be Indiana’s only game against a ranked opponent and if they get blown out their 11-1 record still won’t get them in. But if they keep it relatively close they might still be in the top 12 like PSU.

We also need Ole Miss to not show up in the swamp next week and get upset.
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Florida stood a chance with DJ Lagway. Now that they are down to their 3rd string QB, I don't have faith in them to beat anyone.
 
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#34
#34
BreatheUT said:
A 1 loss Indiana team more than likely does not get in unless it shocks people. They play 1 ranked team all year, and if they lose that game to Ohio State their schedule is abysmal. They are in the Big 10 so there is no excuse like if they were a group of 5 team.

The one scenario I see is a close loss to Ohio State which Ohio State gets overvalued every year.
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I agree. We need OSU to blow out IU. This highlights their weak schedule. If we lose to UGA we need to lose close.
 
#35
#35
BreatheUT said:
A 1 loss Indiana team more than likely does not get in unless it shocks people. They play 1 ranked team all year, and if they lose that game to Ohio State their schedule is abysmal. They are in the Big 10 so there is no excuse like if they were a group of 5 team.

The one scenario I see is a close loss to Ohio State which Ohio State gets overvalued every year.
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The B1G will “encourage” Ohio State to take their foot off the gas against Indiana.
 
#36
#36
UTFranklinVol said:
This is the BIG problem with these mega conferences. From now on you're going to have an Indiana type team (actually Texas is almost as bad) who basically play 1 big game and the rest are garbage teams.

I just pray for the day that Tennessee gets this opportunity.
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Most of our wins with the exception of Alabama are from the bottom half of the conference.
 
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#37
#37
onevol74 said:
Most of our wins with the exception of Alabama are from the bottom half of the conference.
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onevol74 said:
Most of our wins with the exception of Alabama are from the bottom half of the conference.
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This is correct as it has turned out. NC St, Oklahoma, Florida, all paper tigers. Tennessee's only significant victory has been Alabama (to-date).

The difference tho is, for instance, Indiana hasn't played anyone that was projected to do well this year. Even if you go all the way back to the pre season ranking they only had 2 games against top 25 teams. Michigan who I think anyone could have guessed should be terrible after they lost their coach and Ohio State who they haven't played yet.

Penn St is another team. Ohio State was the only pre season ranked team on their entire schedule.

Could you even imagine Tennessee having a schedule with only 1 top 25 team on it? UNHEARD OF!
 
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#38
#38
UT97Vol said:
Playoff projections by media are pretty lame as they just go off current rankings. Here’s a different take. I didn’t study this hard but just based off what I’ve seen, can recall, and looking at schedules.

Top Four (Byes)
1. Ohio St (believe they beat Oregon in rematch)
2. Alabama (I know this is going to make some of you cringe but Bama has the best chances in a multi team tie to make the SEC title game). I also believe they have unlocked something with the realization Milroe is a dual threat QB not a pocket passer). They beat A&M in the SEC title game).
3. Miami (still control their destiny and will beat SMU in the ACC title game).
4. Colorado (Also control their destiny and squeak by BYU in Big 12 title game. BYU is further knocked after loss to Ariz St in Nov).

5 vs 12: Tennessee at Oregon (Since we’re dogs and for the sake of argument UGA gets by us but we still sneak in due to close loss. The iffy part is does 2 loss Tennessee get in over 1 loss Indiana? May depend on how bad OSU beats them and whether the committee can stomach six vs two SEC/Big 10 or if they have to have three to our five). It’s 50/50 here IMO but I think we come out one spot ahead of Indiana. If they are not ahead of us now there is no reason they should be ahead of us after losing to OSU).

6 vs 11: Texas A&M @ Notre Dame (Rematch: Irish jump Penn St on SOS. A&M is here because they beat Texas in last game but lose in the SEC title game).

7 vs 10: UGA @ Ole Miss (Rematch)

8 vs 9 Boise @ Texas (After all this chaos above Boise will not be the 12).

Thoughts? I know you got em.
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I dunno, but the committee wants to avoid rematches as much as possible, so it wont be GA vs Miss that early. And I don't see Pitt listed
 
#39
#39
Sarms58 said:
We want Ohio State to beat them 66-3. This will be Indiana’s only game against a ranked opponent and if they get blown out their 11-1 record still won’t get them in. But if they keep it relatively close they might still be in the top 12 like PSU.

We also need Ole Miss to not show up in the swamp next week and get upset.
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Penn State and Indiana are locks to get in at 11-1. The farce of this whole playoff selection process is the equalization of all the "Power 4" conferences, as if a P4 win is a P4 win. Indiana's home win over a terrible Michigan team couldn't have been more shaky, but you wouldn't know it from the national media perspective, after all they are the "defending champs".

So you have four Big 10 teams, and if SMU wins out but loses to Miami in the championship game, the ACC will get two. I actually saw an article pushing for Boise St. and Army to be in if they are both 11-1! If any of these Big 10, Big 12, or ACC teams aside from perhaps Ohio State and Oregon had to play an SEC schedule, they would all be 3-4 loss teams at minimum.
 
#42
#42
247 is giving the Vols some love in their projections, having us go at least to the Semifinals (they didn’t project further). 1st & 2nd round matchups against Boise St & BYU. It seems they think we beat UGA and lose to Texas in the SECCG before facing them again in the Orange Bowl.

IMG_5984.jpegIMG_5985.jpegIMG_5986.jpeg
 
#44
#44
bpalmer28 said:
Agreed. And since we have similar SOS it would come down to common opponents: UK, ARK, OU, UGA, UF, MSU

Ole Miss 5-1, Tennessee 3-2

Because of that I don’t think we measure up well against them. IF we don’t beat UGA we’d need them to lose in the swamp I think
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^^^^ This is why we wanted Georgia to win Saturday. If both UT and Ole Miss are 2 loss teams I don’t think we make it in.
 
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#45
#45
UTFranklinVol said:
This is the BIG problem with these mega conferences. From now on you're going to have an Indiana type team (actually Texas is almost as bad) who basically play 1 big game and the rest are garbage teams.

I just pray for the day that Tennessee gets this opportunity.
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Our schedule this year wasn’t that tough. Alabama and Georgia are the only two tough opponents. No one else on our schedule is ranked.

Looks like we had that opportunity this year.
 
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#46
#46
I think it’s relatively simple as far as Tennessee is concerned. If we win out, we are in. If we lose to GA ( or Vandy), we are out unless OM, Bama, or GA get upset along the way.
 
#49
#49
UT97Vol said:
Playoff projections by media are pretty lame as they just go off current rankings. Here’s a different take. I didn’t study this hard but just based off what I’ve seen, can recall, and looking at schedules.

Top Four (Byes)
1. Ohio St (believe they beat Oregon in rematch)
2. Alabama (I know this is going to make some of you cringe but Bama has the best chances in a multi team tie to make the SEC title game). I also believe they have unlocked something with the realization Milroe is a dual threat QB not a pocket passer). They beat A&M in the SEC title game).
3. Miami (still control their destiny and will beat SMU in the ACC title game).
4. Colorado (Also control their destiny and squeak by BYU in Big 12 title game. BYU is further knocked after loss to Ariz St in Nov).

5 vs 12: Tennessee at Oregon (Since we’re dogs and for the sake of argument UGA gets by us but we still sneak in due to close loss. The iffy part is does 2 loss Tennessee get in over 1 loss Indiana? May depend on how bad OSU beats them and whether the committee can stomach six vs two SEC/Big 10 or if they have to have three to our five). It’s 50/50 here IMO but I think we come out one spot ahead of Indiana. If they are not ahead of us now there is no reason they should be ahead of us after losing to OSU).

6 vs 11: Texas A&M @ Notre Dame (Rematch: Irish jump Penn St on SOS. A&M is here because they beat Texas in last game but lose in the SEC title game).

7 vs 10: UGA @ Ole Miss (Rematch)

8 vs 9 Boise @ Texas (After all this chaos above Boise will not be the 12).

Thoughts? I know you got em.
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I like how you think ... but frankly you need to wake up from dream land ... SEC having 5 teams in the playoff ... no chance. ABSOLUTELY NONE!
 
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