Poor Poor GOP 2008 is gonna hurt

#2
#2
the dems are in trouble if they keep this policy of saying they are going to increase taxes on the rich.

a) find me one president who won on a raise taxes platform

b) rich people vote in much higher numbers than poor people.
 
#3
#3
Considering the 'rich' falling under this proposed increase are a small element of the voting public and many of them are actually contributing to the Democrats, I don't see that as a threat to them winning.

Right now the GOP is coping with quite a few retirements in districts trending blue. The GOP is WAY behind the curve in the money race. Things are setting up for a greater controlled Democratic Congress and a Dem White House. It will take quite a bit to change this.
 
#5
#5
I can see Dem congress and WH. I have faith that they'll be as bad as an all Rep version and things will switch in 4 to 8 years.
 
#6
#6
droski said:
the dems are in trouble if they keep this policy of saying they are going to increase taxes on the rich.


a) find me one president who won on a raise taxes platform

b) rich people vote in much higher numbers than poor people.
Click to expand...

What constitutes rich, not sure but I would guess for every family that makes above 100g there are 15-20 who do not my guess is every election is truly decided by those with family incomes between 40-80 g a year.
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#7
#7
I cannot wait for socialism.........man, I hope the government starts to make all my choices for me.
 
#8
#8
OrangeEmpire said:
I cannot wait for socialism.........man, I hope the government starts to make all my choices for me.
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Hell OE after reading some of your posts someone needs to be making your decisions for you otherwise we'd be negligent as a compassionate society lol just kidding.
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#10
#10
OE,

This is the DOH calling to confirm your doctor's appt. for 08/15/12. At least it will be free.
 
#12
#12
DAVOL said:


What constitutes rich, not sure but I would guess for every family that makes above 100g there are 15-20 who do not my guess is every election is truly decided by those with family incomes between 40-80 g a year.
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Click to expand...

Your guess would be wrong. Approximately 18% of households make more than $100K - therefore, there are about 4.5 families that make less than $100K for every one that does. (US Census data)

34% of the population makes $35k-$75K (the closest I could find to your 40-80 bracket). Just over 30% makes more than $75K and just over 35% makes less than $35K. Until we know how voting rates vary by income there your second proposition is not supported.
 
#13
#13
Just spotchecking but among the active voters in TN about 39% of them fall within the $35K-$75K household income bracket.
 
#15
#15
CSpindizzy said:
Only 10% fall within the $100K+ household income bracket.
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It's likely lower than the national average in TN since the average (and median) income in TN is lower than the national average.

I did see a graph that shows the proportion of people in any given income quintile that votes rises steadily from the lowest to the highest.
 
#16
#16
Actually this range mentioned above is the peak of voter participation. As you go higher than this, the participation trails off.

Pick a state and I'll run the stats.
 
#17
#17
Here's some results from the 2004 election.

CNN.com Election 2004

32% of voters made 75K or more.
45% of voters made between 30 and 75K
23% of voters made 30k or less

People making 50k or less favored Kerry (although the 30-50K group was 49% W; 50% Kerry).
People above 50K favored W.
 
#18
#18
CSpindizzy said:
Actually this range mentioned above is the peak of voter participation. As you go higher than this, the participation trails off.

Pick a state and I'll run the stats.
Click to expand...

Do you have national stats? I couldn't find any other than the graph I referenced and that was buried in a paper with a source I couldn't find.

In that graph, income was broken into quintiles and each successive quintile showed higher participation but it is quite possible that the highest quintile contains decreasing participation rates among the very rich but that effect is overshadowed by the lower end of that quintile (which would have more people).

The CNN stuff is the closest I've found so far but it is from exit polling which was off in 2004.
 
#20
#20
I don't buy that those in the 50k-100k range are just going to say "well we're not getting our taxes raised so we don't care." What if I think i might make a lot of money one day? And participation in the stock market is at an all time high by middle income investors. And raising the capital gains rate by 20% effects everyone. Raising taxes sounds bad no matter what the explanation. And I also this hillary's socialized healthcare platform ain't going to win any votes either. I think the dems are convinced this hatred of bush will last forever. If the repubs can put a fresh face out there with a decent message they will beat hillary et all. Particurally hillary since a good portion of the country (particurally in the midwest) would never vote for her and the republican base will come out in force to vote against her and contribute money.
 
#21
#21
CSpindizzy said:
Give me a day and I can run each state and total them.
Click to expand...

I just found a Census report for the 2004 election:

http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p20-556.pdf

Page 4 shows percent voting by income category. It is successively higher for each income category with 81% of those making 100k or more voting.

What we don't know is if the uber rich vote at this rate since there are relatively few.

I'm not sure if we can really answer DAVOL's question of elections really be determined by those between 40 and 80K since we would have to define "really determines". Clearly, a major % of the vote comes from outside that income demographic
 
#22
#22
Well then you need to explain some polls indicating the opposite. Most people vote on the here and now and their direct situation. Most people in the middle and lower level see Bush and the GOP more responsible for the economic downturn and issues facing them directly.

And fresh face? Who is left? All the faces have either jumped in or declined. The only one left is Newt and he's not exactly fresh.
 
#23
#23
what economic downturn? the housing bubble? are you serious? how is that bush's fault? unemployment is at a 40 year low.
 
#25
#25
btw: housing prices are still 50% above the prices they were when bush took office.

I see flaming bush about iraq and the increase in govt spending (that is completely justified), but the economy? ridiculous. this is one of the strongest periods of economic growth in united states history.
 
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