Potential issues with the 12-team CFP

#26
#26
ntxVOL said:
Still a lot of games to be played, I think these things work themselves out in the end.
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No doubt, that's why I started my post with the idea that these were simply concerns whose effect won't be known until the season is over.
 
#27
#27
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
ACC will sneak Miami and Clemson in. B1G will get 2-3 including their champion. Big 12 will get 1. G5 gets 1. That leaves potentially 5 SEC spots if the B1G get 3. Win out minus UGA and we should hopefully get one towards the bottom.
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I'm not concerned so much about the ACC and Big 12, even though Miami might be a pretender given all the close games against a cupcake schedule, but if they're 11-1 they are in. Same with Clemson. It's teams like Indiana, Illinois, and even Penn State that annoy me, because aside from Ohio State they literally play no one and will get special treatment for being in the 'vaunted' Big 10.
 
#29
#29
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
I’m going back and forth on this. On one hand, I think the SEC and ESPN will push to get as many SEC teams as possible because ratings will be better.

However, there is a real scenario where there are a few 10-2 SEC teams (LSU, A&M, Bama) including us, and our resume weaker compared to some. How many 10-2 SEC teams will they take?
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I don't think there's any doubt that's going to happen. If Indiana or Illinois end up 10-2, I'll bet that at least one of them will make it over a 2-loss SEC team if it evens up the conferences at 4 teams each. Someone like Iowa State can muck up the works as well if they're a 1-loss team and BYU wins the Big 12.
 
#31
#31
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
It’s a stupid system. All you need to see is the talent comp in the SEC vs all other leagues to realize how much harder this league is to win in. The bottom 2/3 of the B1G is nothing. Big 12 is bush league. ACC is completely outclassed.

Love to see them against Bama. Oh wait, Bama played a sissy B1G school and don’t even sweat.

Miami and Clemson get to sleepwalk through their schedules against cupcakes and are rewarded with post season berths.
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Exactly my point. We're going to find out how much weight is put in those 'tough' Big 10 schedules.
 
#35
#35
vol94 said:
This.

I’m concerned as a 10-2 TN team may not make it. There is a realistic chance that we won’t have one win over a top 25 team.

104.5 zine said this evening that the committee looks at end of yr rankings, not rankings at time of game.


NC St- unranked
Florida- unranked
Oklahoma- horrible
Bama- will not be top 25 if they lose two more. They play Mizz and LSU or aTm ( can’t recall).

Vandy, MS State, UTEP, Ky - unranked

So we may need to go 11-1.

How crazy that UGA may be the only ranked team on our schedule.

Go Vols! Run the table!
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8-4 Bama will still be ranked. Not high, but they would be ranked 23-25.
 
#36
#36
VolBricks said:
I agree with your premise. What if we lose to GA and win all the rest and GA wins out. We both get to the SEC championship and lose to GA again we are 10-3 and probably out of the playoff for losing 2 games to maybe the best team in the country. It sucks but it is far better than the 4 team playoff.
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Any team that has 2 losses should NOT want to play in the conference championship game, because if you lose and get loss number 3 - you are out. A one loss team can lose the second game and get into the playoffs.

The flip side is that is you are a 2-loss team, and you win the championship -you most definitely will be in the playoffs. It will be a gamble for one of the two teams that play in the championship game unless they both are 1-loss teams. And if they are both 2-loss teams, oh well.
 
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#37
#37
sami said:
And not only the idea of costing a team a bid, but as much as they piss and moan about safety, if a team plays in the conference title game, gets an at-large bid, and gets to the national championship game, they will have played 17 games. Ridiculous. The greed is just out of control, and it isn't going to get better.
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All conferences have championship games - so there will probably be 5 teams in the 12-team playoff that have played this many games.

And doesn't DIV II do this every year???
 
#38
#38
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
ACC will sneak Miami and Clemson in. B1G will get 2-3 including their champion. Big 12 will get 1. G5 gets 1. That leaves potentially 5 SEC spots if the B1G get 3. Win out minus UGA and we should hopefully get one towards the bottom.
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There will NOT be 5 SEC teams unless the other conferences and Notre Dame ends up with 2 or more losses. ACC is getting 2, B1G will get 3, Big 12 will get 2, G5 will get 1 leaving 4 - if Notre Dame doesn't lose another game, then they will be one of those - that leaves 3. Four is the ceiling for either the SEC or B1G.
 
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#39
#39
volfan102455 said:
All conferences have championship games - so there will probably be 5 teams in the 12-team playoff that have played this many games.

And doesn't DIV II do this every year???
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I believe they do, but at this level to play 16-17 games is kind of pushing the envelope given how "concerned" they are about "safety", isn't it? Safety is an issue only as long as it doesn't hurt revenue flow.
 
#40
#40
Like every year it will come down to where you are ranked if you lose late. An early loss has always been easier to overcome than a late loss. And a late win over a ranked team can boost a team.

The UGA game is important - may be an elimination game for the loser.
 
#41
#41
sami said:
I believe they do, but at this level to play 16-17 games is kind of pushing the envelope given how "concerned" they are about "safety", isn't it? Safety is an issue only as long as it doesn't hurt revenue flow.
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The NFL plays 17 regular season games - they are at a higher level. Another way to look at this, is that the playoffs prepare a player for that grind.
 
#42
#42
The only watch item for the number of games is opt outs - is the combination of NIL and the hype of playing for a National Championship enough to keep those who may be leaving for the draft from opting out?
 
#43
#43
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
It’s a stupid system. All you need to see is the talent comp in the SEC vs all other leagues to realize how much harder this league is to win in. The bottom 2/3 of the B1G is nothing. Big 12 is bush league. ACC is completely outclassed.

Love to see them against Bama. Oh wait, Bama played a sissy B1G school and don’t even sweat.

Miami and Clemson get to sleepwalk through their schedules against cupcakes and are rewarded with post season berths.
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That’s where those early non conference matchups matter. The top 2 SEC teams right now lost to USC and ND. That doesn’t help.
 
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#44
#44
volfan102455 said:
The only watch item for the number of games is opt outs - is the combination of NIL and the hype of playing for a National Championship enough to keep those who may be leaving for the draft from opting out?
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That's a potentially huge issue, buy my guess is there will be some serious incentives for top players given the network and media investment in this thing.

The question will be whether that, the hype, and media and fan pressure will be enough to trump the guaranteed payday and potentially the career of a high draft pick.
 
#45
#45
SEC has issues right now. Not enough teams play each other. There is going to be controversy with deciding who is going to be in the top 2. Take LSU and A&M, both unbeaten in SEC play but they haven't played the same schedule as, let's say, Georgia. If Georgia is left out for one of them, it would be a travesty.
 
#46
#46
I believe the bigger potential issue is the SEC race and its implications on the playoff entrants. If A&M beats LSU and Texas beats A&M, we could conceivably have five teams with 7-1 SEC records.

The teams would be LSU, A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Tennessee OR UGA. I'm assuming LSU beats Vandy.

Who would get in the SEC title game in that situation? Might have to dust off the tiebreaker rules. Either way someone is going to get screwed in this scenario - especially in terms of how those five teams would fit in the playoff race and what happens to the loser of the SEC title game. It probably doesn't happen and works itself out, but this is not an impossible scenario.
 
#47
#47
sami said:
My point is that the SEC championship game shouldn't disqualify a team who would have been in the field with 2 losses but loses it for their 3rd loss.
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It will be an interesting precedent that will be set by the committee. The 10-2 teams that sits at home should not be rewarded over the team that loses in the CCG, unless we’re the 10-2 team 👍
 
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#48
#48
sami said:
We are obviously not going to be able to pass judgment on this new playoff format and the selection process until we see how it plays out, but I'd like to raise a couple of potential issues. I'm clearly coming from a Tennessee and SEC perspective, but I'd like to hear some other opinions on this new format.

1. It annoys the hell out of me to hear the SEC and Big 10 linked together and described as equals. The only elite teams in the Big 10 are OSU and maybe Oregon. Penn State is good but far from elite, Indiana and Illinois are pretenders, and the rest are middling to dreck. The SEC has maybe 3-4 teams that aren't really competitive right now, and that's including underachieving Kentucky and Oklahoma teams. Hell, Vandy is a handful now.

But we're possibly going to see Big 10 teams that play 1-2 tough games winning 10-11 games and getting at large spots over 2-3 loss SEC teams that go through a week-to-week meat grinder because the leagues are seen as equals. Anyone who watches average Big 10 games and SEC games knows there is a huge difference in the level of play and the intensity of the leagues, and yet I believe we're going to see better SEC teams that played brutal schedules left out for a team like Indiana or Illinois.

2. The conferences will never get rid of the conference championship games because of revenue, but they are potentially going to cost a deserving team a playoff spot. If a 2-loss SEC team loses the title game, which is entirely possible, chances are they will be bounced from the playoff field, which would be grossly unfair for a team that finished second in the conference. It would be simple to decide the conference champ through tiebreakers if needed and avoid this, but they will never give up the payday, a potentially big problem.
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Do not sleep on Indiana. Cignetti is a darn good coach. I am glad florida didn't hire him.
 
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#50
#50
superdave1984 said:
Do not sleep on Indiana. Cignetti is a darn good coach. I am glad florida didn't hire him.
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Agree on Cignetti, but their talent level is not in the same league as elite SEC and even Big 10 schools. They're a great story, but more in an overachiever way.
 
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