Potential issues with the 12-team CFP

[Sudden Impact]

It’s in our best interest for Bama to finish the season strong (I think).

I don't think they are capable of finishing strong. Too much going on that we are not seeing. Players that played for Saban vs the new guy. Locker room dynamics changed.

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

We are obviously not going to be able to pass judgment on this new playoff format and the selection process until we see how it plays out, but I'd like to raise a couple of potential issues. I'm clearly coming from a Tennessee and SEC perspective, but I'd like to hear some other opinions on this new format.

1. It annoys the hell out of me to hear the SEC and Big 10 linked together and described as equals. The only elite teams in the Big 10 are OSU and maybe Oregon. Penn State is good but far from elite, Indiana and Illinois are pretenders, and the rest are middling to dreck. The SEC has maybe 3-4 teams that aren't really competitive right now, and that's including underachieving Kentucky and Oklahoma teams. Hell, Vandy is a handful now.

But we're possibly going to see Big 10 teams that play 1-2 tough games winning 10-11 games and getting at large spots over 2-3 loss SEC teams that go through a week-to-week meat grinder because the leagues are seen as equals. Anyone who watches average Big 10 games and SEC games knows there is a huge difference in the level of play and the intensity of the leagues, and yet I believe we're going to see better SEC teams that played brutal schedules left out for a team like Indiana or Illinois.

2. The conferences will never get rid of the conference championship games because of revenue, but they are potentially going to cost a deserving team a playoff spot. If a 2-loss SEC team loses the title game, which is entirely possible, chances are they will be bounced from the playoff field, which would be grossly unfair for a team that finished second in the conference. It would be simple to decide the conference champ through tiebreakers if needed and avoid this, but they will never give up the payday, a potentially big problem.

We could theoretically make the playoff with 10 or 11 wins and only 1 or 2 tough teams on the schedule. The reason a team like Vandy is looking frisky is because a team like Bama is no longer elite. If they had played a typical Bama team, people would look at Vandy and say “they might get to a bowl,” not “they are a top 25 team.”

There is nothing to indicate the SEC has an elite team or two or three like we are used to. Georgia, Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, us, LSU, A&M. All those teams would get run off the field by Georgia’s two championship teams, most of Saban’s Bama teams, the 2019 LSU team, Dabo’s best Clemson teams, several of Urban Meyer’s teams over the years. We have found some degree of parity in the sport. If we miss out on a playoff, we have only ourselves to blame because that would mean a loss to Arkansas and one to Kentucky or Vandy or Miss State. The odds of a SEC championship loser missing the playoff are low because getting rid of divisions means that both teams that make it are likely locks for the playoff.

 

[sami]

No. Beat the rush and get offended now!

No one is "offended" by anything - it's a discussion. That is what these boards are about, right?

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

That’s where those early non conference matchups matter. The top 2 SEC teams right now lost to USC and ND. That doesn’t help.

Those losses, just like Notre Dame losing AT HOME to NIU, will continue to fade away. ND will weasel its way into the post season because they dropped their terrible loss early.

We will be heavily penalized for our loss to Arkansas than they will for their loss to NIU. I cannot help but think we have to beat UGA to get to the post season as if we don't, even with a 10-2 finish, we will be the lowest or second lowest on the totem pole resume wise.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

There will NOT be 5 SEC teams unless the other conferences and Notre Dame ends up with 2 or more losses. ACC is getting 2, B1G will get 3, Big 12 will get 2, G5 will get 1 leaving 4 - if Notre Dame doesn't lose another game, then they will be one of those - that leaves 3. Four is the ceiling for either the SEC or B1G.

Which is a huge joke.

The Big 12 does not deserve two spots. I can understand the champion getting in, but that conference is nothing without Texas and OU. The SEC just absorbed the two teams that won 14 of the last 18 Big 12 championship games.

Same with the ACC; they do not deserve two spots. The CFP committee even agreed last year that they didn't even deserve one spot. We may have to hope Miami beats Clempson because a 2 loss Clempson will not have the same resume as a 2 loss SEC team.

Notre Dame is also a huge joke. That A&M win continues to pay dividends, however that loss to NIU at HOME should have crushed their playoff dreams because the rest of their schedule stinks. Stamford, Army, Navy, FSU, and Southern Cal isn't exactly murderers row.

I really do not blame Sankey for working to reformat the post season in favor of the SEC, as 12 of the top 20 SOS spots are taken up by SEC teams. NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

 

[volplaya8]

We are obviously not going to be able to pass judgment on this new playoff format and the selection process until we see how it plays out, but I'd like to raise a couple of potential issues. I'm clearly coming from a Tennessee and SEC perspective, but I'd like to hear some other opinions on this new format.

1. It annoys the hell out of me to hear the SEC and Big 10 linked together and described as equals. The only elite teams in the Big 10 are OSU and maybe Oregon. Penn State is good but far from elite, Indiana and Illinois are pretenders, and the rest are middling to dreck. The SEC has maybe 3-4 teams that aren't really competitive right now, and that's including underachieving Kentucky and Oklahoma teams. Hell, Vandy is a handful now.

But we're possibly going to see Big 10 teams that play 1-2 tough games winning 10-11 games and getting at large spots over 2-3 loss SEC teams that go through a week-to-week meat grinder because the leagues are seen as equals. Anyone who watches average Big 10 games and SEC games knows there is a huge difference in the level of play and the intensity of the leagues, and yet I believe we're going to see better SEC teams that played brutal schedules left out for a team like Indiana or Illinois.

2. The conferences will never get rid of the conference championship games because of revenue, but they are potentially going to cost a deserving team a playoff spot. If a 2-loss SEC team loses the title game, which is entirely possible, chances are they will be bounced from the playoff field, which would be grossly unfair for a team that finished second in the conference. It would be simple to decide the conference champ through tiebreakers if needed and avoid this, but they will never give up the payday, a potentially big problem.

Not sure if it has been discussed but the only way title games go away is if an extra conference game is added. There is your revenue to make up the money for that game. Tv deal would have to be bumped up for an added extra week. I like this idea because every team having to play an extra game would be on equal footing and no single team could be screwed over like the loser of the Sec title game.

 

[volplaya8]

I would think 4, but it might depend on Notre Dame. Would be nice if they acquired another loss.

I see it as Sec-4, Big Ten -3, Acc-2, Big 12-1, Non power school-1, and ND…if ND were not to make it in a year then a 5th Sec would be possible.

 

[volfanstuckinga]

And not only the idea of costing a team a bid, but as much as they piss and moan about safety, if a team plays in the conference title game, gets an at-large bid, and gets to the national championship game, they will have played 17 games. Ridiculous. The greed is just out of control, and it isn't going to get better.

They are now getting paid....and some of them are getting paid quite well. My sympathy for more games went out the window with NIL

 

[bigorangecrush89]

USA Today Bowl Projections this morning:

College football bowl projections: Georgia takes top spot in CFP field from Texas

There was a major change at the top of this week's college football bowl projections with Georgia the No. 1 seed for the playoff and Texas falling.

www.usatoday.com

They have UT in the Music City Bowl vs. Wisconsin.

 

[SaintLouisVol]

We are obviously not going to be able to pass judgment on this new playoff format and the selection process until we see how it plays out, but I'd like to raise a couple of potential issues. I'm clearly coming from a Tennessee and SEC perspective, but I'd like to hear some other opinions on this new format.

1. It annoys the hell out of me to hear the SEC and Big 10 linked together and described as equals. The only elite teams in the Big 10 are OSU and maybe Oregon. Penn State is good but far from elite, Indiana and Illinois are pretenders, and the rest are middling to dreck. The SEC has maybe 3-4 teams that aren't really competitive right now, and that's including underachieving Kentucky and Oklahoma teams. Hell, Vandy is a handful now.

But we're possibly going to see Big 10 teams that play 1-2 tough games winning 10-11 games and getting at large spots over 2-3 loss SEC teams that go through a week-to-week meat grinder because the leagues are seen as equals. Anyone who watches average Big 10 games and SEC games knows there is a huge difference in the level of play and the intensity of the leagues, and yet I believe we're going to see better SEC teams that played brutal schedules left out for a team like Indiana or Illinois.

2. The conferences will never get rid of the conference championship games because of revenue, but they are potentially going to cost a deserving team a playoff spot. If a 2-loss SEC team loses the title game, which is entirely possible, chances are they will be bounced from the playoff field, which would be grossly unfair for a team that finished second in the conference. It would be simple to decide the conference champ through tiebreakers if needed and avoid this, but they will never give up the payday, a potentially big problem.

You're not wrong, but you could have posted this exact view in regard to any CFB playoff system that has existed in my lifetime.

 

[wtmvol]

Who would have thought before the season that of Notre Dame's final 5 games which include USC and Florida State that the 2 toughest games would probably be against Army and Navy?

 

[hatingbamaisawayoflife]

I think Beck had 3 INTs against TX. He does that against us they will lose…we will be the best D he has faced all year. I like our chances

the Vols play very different on the road so far all year. i will try to be optimistic about at GA but

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

USA Today Bowl Projections this morning:

College football bowl projections: Georgia takes top spot in CFP field from Texas

There was a major change at the top of this week's college football bowl projections with Georgia the No. 1 seed for the playoff and Texas falling.

www.usatoday.com

They have UT in the Music City Bowl vs. Wisconsin.

Welcome to the SEC where a potential 10-2 team gets rewarded with the Music City Bowl with a SOS ranked 4th out of 134. Welcome to the B1G where a potential 8-4 or 9-3 team with a SOS of 35th gets rewarded with the same Music City bowl.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Those losses, just like Notre Dame losing AT HOME to NIU, will continue to fade away. ND will weasel its way into the post season because they dropped their terrible loss early.

We will be heavily penalized for our loss to Arkansas than they will for their loss to NIU. I cannot help but think we have to beat UGA to get to the post season as if we don't, even with a 10-2 finish, we will be the lowest or second lowest on the totem pole resume wise.

Win or lose vs UGA, we have to show up and play well. We can’t go to Athens and get boat raced and allow the committee to use that as a de facto early CFP game that disqualifies us.

 

[vik]

I believe the bigger potential issue is the SEC race and its implications on the playoff entrants. If A&M beats LSU and Texas beats A&M, we could conceivably have five teams with 7-1 SEC records.

The teams would be LSU, A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Tennessee OR UGA. I'm assuming LSU beats Vandy.

Who would get in the SEC title game in that situation? Might have to dust off the tiebreaker rules. Either way someone is going to get screwed in this scenario - especially in terms of how those five teams would fit in the playoff race and what happens to the loser of the SEC title game. It probably doesn't happen and works itself out, but this is not an impossible scenario.

Who gets in that scenario depends on who beats who. I've done a bit of searching and researching, and I would be shocked (SHOCKED!) if the SEC didn't tweak these rules for the 2025 season. Here are the dusted off tiebreaker rules for 2024, according to The Sporting News:

Step 1: Head-to-head competition: This is the easiest tiebreaker. Did Team A beat Team B?
Step 2: Record vs. all common conference opponents.
Step 3: Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among tied teams.
Step 4: Cumulative conference winning percentages of all conference opponents among tied teams.
Step 5: Capped relative total scoring margin vs. all conference opponents among the tied teams.
Step 6: Random draw.

Below is a bit of a deep dive I did on this, for anyone who is interested.

Spoiler: Deep Dive

For the sake of your scenario above, let's pretend Georgia beats Tennessee so there's no homerism here from me. In that case, our top teams would be Georgia, Texas, aTm, and LSU. For the H2H tiebreaker, since we don't have a situation where all of these teams played each other, here's what happens:
If one team beat all the other tied teams, it is selected for the championship game, and the other remaining teams return to the start of the tiebreaker procedures for second place. But that's not the case in this scenario so we go to Step #2.

Step #2: Record vs. all common conference opponents... Would you believe that there is no team in the SEC that plays all four of the tied teams? Believe it and move on to Step #3.

Step #3: Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings... Well this also doesn't apply because UGA, TX, aTm, and LSU do not have a common opponent. Arkansas, Florida, and MSST play 3 out of the 4, but not all four (and not even the same three), so this step cannot fairly compare. Go to Step #4.

Step #4: This will finally break the tie, most likely. We're going to have to let the games play out, and then compare the winning percentages of UGA's SEC opponents, vs. TX's SEC opponents, vs. aTm's SEC opponents, vs. LSU's SEC opponents for all 8 of their conference games.

Thru Week-9 of this season, here's who these four have played in conference so far, with their conference records:
UGA: KY (1-4), ALA (2-2), AUB (0-4), MSST (0-4), TX (2-1); Overall SEC record is 3-14, or 17.6%
TX: MSST (0-4), OKLA (1-3), UGA (4-1); Overall SEC record is 5-8, or 38.5%
aTm: FLA (2-2), ARK (2-2), Mizzou (2-1), MSST (0-4); Overall SEC record is 6-9, or 40.0%
LSU: SCAR (2-3), OleMiss (1-2), ARK (2-2); Overall SEC record is 5-7, or 41.7%

Under this scenario, all of the season-ending games on November 30th not involving the four tied teams (Tennessee-Vanderbilt, Arkansas-Missouri, Ole Miss-Mississippi State, and Alabama-Auburn) will impact the final standings and who will participate in the 2024 SEC Championship game.

 

[volplaya8]

Welcome to the SEC where a potential 10-2 team gets rewarded with the Music City Bowl with a SOS ranked 4th out of 134. Welcome to the B1G where a potential 8-4 or 9-3 team with a SOS of 35th gets rewarded with the same Music City bowl.

Promise nobody is going to Music City at 10-2…just wondering what these fools think…we are finishing 8-4 in their minds?

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Promise nobody is going to Music City at 10-2??just wondering what these fools think…we are finishing 8-4 in their minds?

I agree with you but look at the chart. All the NY6 games are playoff games. That just leaves the second tier stuff like the Gator, Citrus, and beyond. If the SEC finishes with six 10-2 teams for example, then where do they all go? Somebody is going to get relegated down pretty far.

 

[camp_steveo]

My point is that the SEC championship game shouldn't disqualify a team who would have been in the field with 2 losses but loses it for their 3rd loss.

I guess they could pick the 12 prior to championship games.

 

[UT97Vol]

Promise nobody is going to Music City at 10-2…just wondering what these fools think…we are finishing 8-4 in their minds?

You left off Mizzou which is still in play but yeah bottom of the tiebreaker options it would seem. Good stuff.

 

[volplaya8]

I agree with you but look at the chart. All the NY6 games are playoff games. That just leaves the second tier stuff like the Gator, Citrus, and beyond. If the SEC finishes with six 10-2 teams for example, then where do they all go? Somebody is going to get relegated down pretty far.

Well 4 Sec are making playoffs to begin with….not a chance both Iowa St and Kansas st are in…then the ones that don’t make it will go to bowls in Florida…highly doubtful there will be 6 10-2 teams…I honestly don’t even think their slotting can happen if you actually look at all the games that need to be played….they just pick a spot to put a team without studying the schedules…lazy


Even if Sec had 6…4 in playoffs and 2 in Florida…these fools think Vols are going 8-4…nope!

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Just looked at Miami’s schedule. If they lose at all, they should not get in. They will not have a single win versus a ranked team . Their last 3 wins are by 1 score over VT, Cal and Louisville. That’s not really deserving of an at large bid if they lose to Clemson.

Also, We should all be pulling hard for USCjr to beat Clemson on Thanksgiving weekend .

 

[volplaya8]

Just looked at Miami’s schedule. If they lose at all, they should not get in. They will not have a single win versus a ranked team . Their last 3 wins are by 1 score over VT, Cal and Louisville. That’s not really deserving of an at large bid if they lose to Clemson.

Also, We should all be pulling hard for USCjr to beat Clemson on Thanksgiving weekend .

Unfortunately they will be in at 11-1…regardless of them or not…ACC will be rewarded with two teams in…Pitt and SMU are also alive there…4 teams (Miami, Clemson, Pitt, Smu) to get two spots

 

[RockyTop140]

It’s always been a problem. The 12 team playoff just exaggerates it. It’s why I’m thinking eventually we will do away with conferences altogether and just have a big premiere “conference”. It would leave less questions because former SEC and Big10 schools would be playing each other regularly during the regular season. I hate the idea, but I can’t help thinking that’s where this is headed.

 

[Visidog]

Like every year it will come down to where you are ranked if you lose late. An early loss has always been easier to overcome than a late loss. And a late win over a ranked team can boost a team.

The UGA game is important - may be an elimination game for the loser.

If UGA beats Ole Miss, I think it’s in the playoff even with a close loss to Tennessee (assuming Clemson and Texas finish well). UGA’s schedule is ridiculous. The Allstate predictor gives UGA a greater than 99% chance to make the playoff if it beats Florida and Ole Miss and loses to Tennessee.

This playoff was designed so that most blue blood teams make it every year. It was then sold as letting more teams in.

 

[GoVols64]

Another way to look at this is a 10-2 Tennessee team is definitely out of the old 4 team playoff format unless we would somehow win the SEC championship. This actually gives teams with tough schedules a chance to compete against the "Elite" teams.

I believe there is far more parity this year than, possibly, ever before in modern football (Since 80s?). The championship games are, in a way, a playoff in and of themselves. I am hopeful that SoS is a big consideration in the 8 slots open to non-conference champions. If weak teams are allowed in then the 12 team format will flop harder than an Bama defender!

We are in the drivers seat if we had beaten the piggly wigglys but, unfortunately, we didn't. We are a good football team but not a great one (yet) and can still control our own destiny. Can we beat UGA? Yes. Will we? Not if we don't play two complete halves of football which have not done against our last three opponents.

Bottom line I would much rather be sitting at 6-1 with a chance than on the outside looking in. Let's hope the boys take care of business! GBO!!!