Predict the regular season record

[bleedingTNorange]

Correction...projection (singular). And I don't care about that singular projection. I think it's wrong. My opinion. I'm fine with you disagreeing with it, but to me, 10 regular season losses is disappointing.

Yes singular, I’ll post others as they come, although I’d say we could see 5-6 projections and all being around 22-9 and you’ll still disagree…but I’ll post them when they become available, I think kenpom likely has them right at that same mark.

Correction…not just disappointing, but significantly disappointing.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Last year 22-9 was good for #10 last year for Baylor at the end of the regular season, but allow #14 for Tennessee…as I’ve mentioned our SOS looks like it could very well be better, Barttorvik projects 22-9 and that’s with us being 6th in his ranking, so clearly he views us as one of those teams with a crazy SOS that would be ranked higher than most with that number of losses.

If we end up going 22-9 and that is good enough for a 2-seed or 3-seed this year, I’ll be surprised but okay with it. Last year, by most metrics, was one of the weakest fields of 64 in recent memory according to our good statistician friend Will Warren. I think that explains why Baylor was ranked so highly. Now, maybe in the transfer portal era parity will make 9-10 loss teams being high seeds a more common occurrence. But I don’t want to count on that.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

If we end up going 22-9 and that is good enough for a 2-seed or 3-seed this year, I’ll be surprised but okay with it. Last year, by most metrics, was one of the weakest fields of 64 in recent memory according to our good statistician friend Will Warren. I think that explains why Baylor was ranked so highly. Now, maybe in the transfer portal era parity will make 9-10 loss teams being high seeds a more common occurrence. But I don’t want to count on that.

I’ll be interested to see more projections, I would expect them all to be 22-9/23-8…as we’ve said you never know what each year is going to bring, maybe it’s the strongest year ever, maybe it’s the weakest. I was simply looking at big picture of the season, if the projections are coming in at 22-9 it’s hard for me (knowing I’m a fan, so a bit biased naturally) to look at it and say 1 more loss than analytical unbiased projections and this is some significantly disappointing season.

As a fan, I step back and say wait, why are we getting projected at 22-9?! This is a computer model that has proven to be among the best predictors, so why does it see 22-9 but as fans we are seeing 26-5? I think naturally as fans we are typically higher on our roster than most, and then I also think that as I’ve mentioned our OOC schedule may truly be the best that we’ve ever had under Barnes.

 

[cardvolfan]

23-8.

 

[cncchris33]

Yes singular, I’ll post others as they come, although I’d say we could see 5-6 projections and all being around 22-9 and you’ll still disagree…but I’ll post them when they become available, I think kenpom likely has them right at that same mark.

Correction…not just disappointing, but significantly disappointing.

I have no doubt you will.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I have no doubt you will.

I typically do share those projections, as I said I’m sure if they all say 22-9 you’ll still stick to your guns

 

[cncchris33]

I typically do share those projections, as I said I’m sure if they all say 22-9 you’ll still stick to your guns

Of course I will. If I disagree with this projection, why would I agree with another that says the same thing?

I'm just shocked you'd consider a season in which this team loses 1 out of every 3 games as an acceptable regular season result. We played 6 high-major OOC opponents each of the past two years. I don't see this OOC schedule as grossly difficult. All of the known HMs on it are coming off down to very average seasons (UNC, Wisconsin, Syracuse, NC State, Illinois). Three of those missed the NCAAT altogether, and the other two lost in round 1. Sure, they are "name" programs, but are they teams that a top 6-8 team should fear?

And sure we could lose to any of them, too...I've baked in a loss to UNC or Wisconsin in my projection as the only two true road games. On the same token, though, we could go out and win Maui and erase the other OOC loss I've projected.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I guess it’s kinda the age old if 50 people are telling you that you’re wrong and are providing mathematical data to back that and all you have is an opinion to counter it maybe you’d soften that stance, maybe not, again that’s your choice.

1-2 in Maui given our new additions and timing wouldn’t be a shock, very well could be dogs to a few of the teams in that field.

@Wisconsin
n Syracuse (let’s say W)
n Purdue/Gonzaga
n Kansas/Marquette/UCLA
@ North Carolina
Illinois
n NC State


Wisconsin is 29 on Barttorvik, at their place I would say that’s a near pick em most likely

Syracuse we will be favored against

Depending on how it plays out very well could be dogs in final 2 Maui games

North Carolina is 13 on Barttorvik, at their place that’s dogs if it holds

Illinois is 28, at our house though, we would be favored

NCST we will be favored against


So I see 3 favorites, 3 underdogs, and 1 pick em…4-3 seems a pretty plausible OOC slate against the good teams, add 6 buy games and that gets you to 10-3. 12-6 is our average conference record the past 3 years (post COVID run), so that seems like a pretty realistic bar as it factors in the natural winning 1 or 2 you maybe didn’t think you would, but also dropping 1-2 you didn’t think you would. Put those numbers together and it’s pretty easy to see where the 22-9 came from. .

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Fwiw in years past 25-6 looks like it gets you a Top 5 team and a 1 seed, that’s a lofty place to “set” expectations…hope you’re right!

 

[cncchris33]

I've already said I see 25-6 as our ceiling and best case scenario with everyone healthy. I'm fine with 23-8, too. Beyond that, I think 9 regular season losses would be mildly disappointing, and more than 9 being even more so. If the projections eventually all disagree with me, then that's fine. It isn't a case of me being intentionally obstinate. I just believe our experience (3 super seniors in their 5th year, plus 4 juniors), talent, and depth are being undervalued by those models.

I also don't fully believe in the profiles of those OOC foes. You've claimed that this OOC schedule is maybe tougher than in years past, and I disagree.

Two years ago, we played 5 eventual NCAAT teams OOC...
UNC (title game)
Villanova (F4)
Arizona (S16)
Texas Tech (S16)
Texas (2nd rd)

Last year, we played 5 eventual NCAAT teams OOC...
Texas (E8)
Kansas (2nd rd)
Maryland (2nd rd)
Arizona (1st rd)
USC (1st rd)

This year might result in something similar, but based on last year's results, which I laid out in another post, I just don't believe this OOC schedule matches that, and those teams only lost 7 and 9 regular season games.

I'm not trying to win you over on this topic, either, but it feels like you are going to continually belabor me with your opinion until I accept it as fact. We can disagree about the actual expectations, and you can be fine come March with us having 10 losses. But based on what we know, right now, I'll be disappointed.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I've already said I see 25-6 as our ceiling and best case scenario with everyone healthy.

your first post literally states that you went conservative and landed on 25-6, that doesn’t sound like saying “best case scenario” is 25-5.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I also don't fully believe in the profiles of those OOC foes. You've claimed that this OOC schedule is maybe tougher than in years past, and I disagree.

Two years ago, we played 5 eventual NCAAT teams OOC...
UNC (title game)
Villanova (F4)
Arizona (S16)
Texas Tech (S16)
Texas (2nd rd)

Last year, we played 5 eventual NCAAT teams OOC...
Texas (E8)
Kansas (2nd rd)
Maryland (2nd rd)
Arizona (1st rd)
USC (1st rd)

Obviously no way to know, but right now 5 of those OOC foes are projected as NCAAT teams, and then you add in 2 more P5 opponents instead of other buy games from years past and that’s likely, at least on the surface, a better slate.

 

[cncchris33]

your first post literally states that you went conservative and landed on 25-6, that doesn’t sound like saying “best case scenario” is 25-5.

Best case scenario being ZZ is healthy from the get-go and we suffer no significant injuries. And I said I usually err on the side of conservative, meaning you'll never see me predict something crazy like 30-1.

You're just picking apart each vowel and consonant from every post I've made so far to try and find something to hold my feet to the fire over. What's new?

So how about this, I'll just instead predict we'll go 18-13 just so we can exceed expectations and beat our chest.

Why do you even start threads like this if all you want to do is grind people into accepting your view as gospel? Instead, just make a thread that says Tennessee will go 22-9 because this projection says so, and no other opinions will be accepted.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Lmao, talk grinding someone to try and find something to hold your feet to the fire over?! Geez. Your posts/takes seemed contradictory, sorry I pointed that out…in one breath it’s a conservative take and then the next it’s a best case scenario, those things don’t usually go together so I wasn’t sure what was truly meant. I’ve same multiple times have your opinion, I disagree, thought that’s what a message board was for, especially given it’s the offseason…I’ve also stated mine as 23-8, so clearly your attempt at saying 18-13 is just you trying to go out of your way to be an a$$.

Footballs O/U was 9.5, so this would be similar to saying 9-3 would be a significant failure, missing the projections by 0.5-1 game difference…if that was also your opinion then so be it, some people are tough critics, and have super high expectations. To me there’s a difference is expectations and projections, expecting them to hit the ceiling mark seems a bit unfair, but again to each their own.

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

11/6 vs. Tennessee Tech
11/10 @ Wisconsin
11/14 vs. Wofford
11/20 N Syracuse (Maui)
11/21 N Maui
11/22 N Maui
11/29 @ North Carolina
12/5 vs. George Mason
12/9 vs. Illinois
12/12 vs. Georgia Southern
12/16 N NC State
12/21 vs. Tarleton State
1/2 vs. Norfolk State
1/6 vs. Ole Miss
1/10 @ Mississippi State
1/13 @ Georgia
1/16 vs. Florida
1/20 vs. Alabama
1/27 @ Vanderbilt
1/30 vs. South Carolina
2/3 @ Kentucky
2/7 vs. LSU
2/10 @ Texas A&M
2/14 @ Arkansas
2/17 vs. Vanderbilt
2/20 @ Missouri
2/24 vs. Texas A&M
2/28 vs. Auburn
3/2 @ Alabama
3/6 @ South Carolina
3/9 vs. Kentucky

Bold= Win

 

[bleedingTNorange]

@cncchris33 I’m gonna try and explain a bit because it feels like you think I’m coming at you in a demeaning or derogatory manner and that wasn’t my intention. Much like when you and I both had discussion with @TheMookieMonster because he was being a bit over the top previously, it wasn’t in a negative light, it’s because your opinion is one I respect, you are knowledgeable, have been on this forum a long time, and are typically very level headed and someone who provides good insight…all that to say I take your opinion and posts much more literal/meaningful etc than most on here.

Last year on a team that was KP #4 preseason and AP Poll preseason #11, probably right about where we’ll be this year in both, you projected 23-8 and seemed to infer you could also see 22-9, which was right in line with analytic projections, and eve questioned some of the folks who were predicting records like 26-5+. This year, on a team that will be projected very much the same both in people based polls and analytic projections, you are now in the group projecting 26-5 and suggest that 22-9 which is the projection would be a disappointment.

Again as I said in the beginning of this post, your takes are ones that I pay attention to and to see you so high on a team and expecting them to be much better than projections while being very much in line with projections forecasted last year just surprised me. None of my replies were demeaning to you or calling your opinion dumb or anything, again it was very much that I was surprised by your take and opinion on the matter and was trying to get a better understanding. I can absolutely see us going 25-6, but I just see that as much more of a best case scenario type of deal, which I typically wouldnt set a best case for a team as their expectation also, maybe that is where we differ and if so that’s totally fine.

 

[cncchris33]

@cncchris33 I’m gonna try and explain a bit because it feels like you think I’m coming at you in a demeaning or derogatory manner and that wasn’t my intention. Much like when you and I both had discussion with @TheMookieMonster because he was being a bit over the top previously, it wasn’t in a negative light, it’s because your opinion is one I respect, you are knowledgeable, have been on this forum a long time, and are typically very level headed and someone who provides good insight…all that to say I take your opinion and posts much more literal/meaningful etc than most on here.

Last year on a team that was KP #4 preseason and AP Poll preseason #11, probably right about where we’ll be this year in both, you projected 23-8 and seemed to infer you could also see 22-9, which was right in line with analytic projections, and eve questioned some of the folks who were predicting records like 26-5+. This year, on a team that will be projected very much the same both in people based polls and analytic projections, you are now in the group projecting 26-5 and suggest that 22-9 which is the projection would be a disappointment.

Again as I said in the beginning of this post, your takes are ones that I pay attention to and to see you so high on a team and expecting them to be much better than projections while being very much in line with projections forecasted last year just surprised me. None of my replies were demeaning to you or calling your opinion dumb or anything, again it was very much that I was surprised by your take and opinion on the matter and was trying to get a better understanding. I can absolutely see us going 25-6, but I just see that as much more of a best case scenario type of deal, which I typically wouldnt set a best case for a team as their expectation also, maybe that is where we differ and if so that’s totally fine.

Once again, I'm certain you have the receipts, but I don't ever remember saying 25-6 was my EXPECTATION. This isn't the expectation thread, it's the prediction thread. My initial PREDICTION is that we will go 25-6, thus surpassing expectation, which you've set as 22-9 based on one model. Expectations and predictions are not the same thing.

I've said that 21-10 would be a significant disappointment and 22-9 a slight disappointment, meaning that my acceptable range of outcomes falls between 23-8 and anything better. I've been very crystal clear about that, so you can say my EXPECTATION is that we go at least 23-8. I predict we'll be better than that, but 25-6 isn't my benchmark for success, nor is it my expectation for this season to be considered successful. It's just where I think we'll land.

As for the line of reasoning between last year and this year. I had more questions about our team last year (specifically the PG position, scoring at the rim, and perimeter shooting...all areas where we weren't exactly great) and believed we had a much more challenging OOC schedule. And we finished right at where I predicted we would. This year, I think we have more experience, depth, and talent and an easier schedule. So it isn't difficult to see how I'd arrive at a better prediction.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Hope you’re right again, fwiw I was at 22-9 last year also. I could see a bunch of new faces needing some time to figure things out, add in the question of Zeigler to start the year, and the fact our early schedule is as tough as anyone’s and I could see a team that starts out a bit slow but catches their footing and improves.

 

[cncchris33]

Hope you’re right again, fwiw I was at 22-9 last year also. I could see a bunch of new faces needing some time to figure things out, add in the question of Zeigler to start the year, and the fact our early schedule is as tough as anyone’s and I could see a team that starts out a bit slow but catches their footing and improves.

As previously stated, my prediction is only as good as ZZ being fully healthy to start the season (back to my best case scenario comment). If he is held out, slowed, or otherwise hampered by his knee, my prediction is very much subject to change. His status makes my prediction very fluid, which I've been clear about. All reports thus far have surpassed my expectations, so I'm operating on some amount of faith in that regard.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

As previously stated, my prediction is only as good as ZZ being fully healthy to start the season (back to my best case scenario comment). If he is held out, slowed, or otherwise hampered by his knee, my prediction is very much subject to change. His status makes my prediction very fluid, which I've been clear about. All reports thus far have surpassed my expectations, so I'm operating on some amount of faith in that regard.

I think even if he’s ready to roll there’s likely some rust to knock off, or a slight adjustment at the very least. Hoping he’s full go though.

 

[The Dog]

24-7 with 2 losses in OOC play and 5 in SEC play. I added one loss in both scenarios, just to dial it down from my original 26-5. Still, this team can hang a banner or 2, this season if they stay healthy/get completely healthy (ZZZ), imo

 

[ColinS]

Only analytical model currently out that I’ve seen projects 22-9, missing that by 1 game wouldn’t qualify as significantly disappointing IMO. Of course if you’re expected them to go 26-5 or is, then I could see where 10 losses would seem bad.

Ten loses on a schedule like that north of 30 games would be very good. The main thing is that you are prepared for March

 

[Toucan Sam]

I would say 24-7.

 

[gunner]

22-9

 

[NighthawkVol]

I think this team has all of the talent, depth, and experience you could want in a national championship caliber roster. Might be the best roster Barnes has had at Tennessee. With that being said, this is not the SEC of yesteryear where it felt like a very good roster could mostly coast to an elite record.

My expectation is 24-7. I think 25-6 or better is in play, but I just think with how deep the SEC is now, Chris Beard at Ole Miss, Gates rolling at Mizzou early, Stackhouse turning around Vandy to a degree and the obvious elite top of the league, it’s hard for me to ever “predict” better than 24-7. Looking forward to the season though.

Agree. But this “new” SEC might mean Tennessee performs better in the NCAAT.