Prediction Thread: What Will Oregon's Punishment Be?

#1
MaehlMan

MaehlMan

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#1
I'll guess 15-20 scholarships lost over a period of 2-3 years. Additionally, I foresee a one-year postseason ban. Kelly will be barred from recruiting off-campus for a year or two, but retain his job with the shortest of leashes.
 
#4
#4
IPorange said:
If Oregon has a brain, Kelly will be sacrificed.
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I think he'll get leniency for three reasons. For one, the compliance department apparently didn't find anything wrong with him doing this, because they signed off on everything and did it using school checks. Secondly, I think he might get a bit of a break since he had only been a head coach for 2 years. And let's face it-Oregon will want to retain him because he's a damn good coach.
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#5
#5
i'd be shocked if kelly was the coach in 2012. i see the same or worse than SC.
 
#7
#7
MaehlMan said:
I think he'll get leniency for three reasons. For one, the compliance department apparently didn't find anything wrong with him doing this, because they signed off on everything and did it using school checks. Secondly, I think he might get a bit of a break since he had only been a head coach for 2 years. And let's face it-Oregon will want to retain him because he's a damn good coach.
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I pity you.
 
#8
#8
MaehlMan said:
I think he'll get leniency for three reasons. For one, the compliance department apparently didn't find anything wrong with him doing this, because they signed off on everything and did it using school checks. Secondly, I think he might get a bit of a break since he had only been a head coach for 2 years. And let's face it-Oregon will want to retain him because he's a damn good coach.
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what coach has survived that kind of violations? he'd be among the first.
 
#9
#9
MaehlMan said:
I think he'll get leniency for three reasons. For one, the compliance department apparently didn't find anything wrong with him doing this, because they signed off on everything and did it using school checks. Secondly, I think he might get a bit of a break since he had only been a head coach for 2 years. And let's face it-Oregon will want to retain him because he's a damn good coach.
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I'll still be shocked if he survives this.
 
#10
#10
Trying to predict what sanctions the NCAA governing body will lay down on anyone is like trying to hit the powerball
 
#13
#13
Serious question: shouldn't the compliance department which approved of these payments be shouldering at least part of the blame instead of Kelly receiving it all?
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#14
#14
MaehlMan said:
Serious question: shouldn't the compliance department which approved of these payments be shouldering at least part of the blame instead of Kelly receiving it all?
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bellotti should be to blame as well since he clearly didn't monitor kelly. but in the end the coach has the final decision.
 
#15
#15
MaehlMan said:
Serious question: shouldn't the compliance department which approved of these payments be shouldering at least part of the blame instead of Kelly receiving it all?
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Just from your question think about this, if the Oregon compliance office authorized an illegal payment, then that demonstrates a lack of institutional control. That's a big time offense in NCAA's eyes and you can expect many heads to roll. So regardless of who shoulders the blame, those at fault, including Kelly, will more than likely be terminated.
 
#16
#16
Kelly will get fired because Oregon will want to show that they care about compliance. Keeping him will only encourage the NCAA to lay waste to the program. Kelly will be the scapegoat and Oregon will say it was all his fault.
 
#17
#17
MaehlMan said:
Serious question: shouldn't the compliance department which approved of these payments be shouldering at least part of the blame instead of Kelly receiving it all?
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They will all be gone. Plus there is more to this story I can guarantee you. Whenever an investigation starts it always pulls up more dirt then originally thought. You're punishment will be worse then USC imo. You're university was writing it's own checks. Not good :ermm:
 
#18
#18
bamawriter said:
Kelly will get fired because Oregon will want to show that they care about compliance. Keeping him will only encourage the NCAA to lay waste to the program. Kelly will be the scapegoat and Oregon will say it was all his fault.
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+1
man I hope I have good luck rest of the day since I agreed with a bammer on something.
 
#19
#19
Considering Oregon has been on probation as recently as '05...

- 2 year postseason ban
- 25-ish scholarships over three years
- Show-cause on Chip
- 5 years probation
 
#20
#20
milohimself said:
Considering Oregon has been on probation as recently as '05...

- 2 year postseason ban
- 25-ish scholarships over three years
- Show-cause on Chip
- 5 years probation
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that sounds about right but I expect a higher scholly loss. Didn't USC lose 30 over 3 years. If so I expect 30 or more
 
#22
#22
strongtower said:
that sounds about right but I expect a higher scholly loss. Didn't USC lose 30 over 3 years. If so I expect 30 or more
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I don't think it'll be that many. Oregon will comply with the investigation (which will mean Kelly's pink slip). USC got slammed because they stonewalled the NCAA at every turn and then hired Lane Kiffin and Ed Oregeron. Oregon won't be that stupid.
 
#23
#23
On one hand, I don't like Oregon. On the other hand, I don't like USC even more. This will just make USC's return to the top of the Pac 10 quicker. There's a good chance Stanford will drop off with the loss of Harbaugh and Luck going pro next season. Guess I'll be pulling for Utah, Arizona State or Oregon State to step up their game and take control of the conference for a while.
 
#24
#24
The_Orange_Pearl said:
On one hand, I don't like Oregon. On the other hand, I don't like USC even more. This will just make USC's return to the top of the Pac 10 quicker. There's a good chance Stanford will drop off with the loss of Harbaugh and Luck going pro next season. Guess I'll be pulling for Utah, Arizona State or Oregon State to step up their game and take control of the conference for a while.
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I doubt Utah could. That program has survived off Pac-10 throwaways for quite some time. I would like to see OSU become a player, but they have never and I doubt will ever recruit well, at all. They had that one year with Erickson, Chad Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, but most programs will have a year or two once in a great great while where they do exceptionally well.

Why ASU has never really experienced any sustained success is one of cfb's great mysteries... They have it all. Enormous university system, lots of money, fabulous location, twice as many attractive girls as the next school, etc. Maybe they'll be consistently great at some point.
 
#25
#25
Even ASU's best coaches in history have never had a single top 10 recruiting class. obviously the location isnt' all that enticing for recruits. california kids like to stay in california. hate to be self serving, but cal would be the #1 benefactor if oregon goes down.
 
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