Pretenders Masquerading as Contenders

#29
#29
TrumpedUpVol said:
I definitely don't think Tennessee is a pretender, easily a top-five team in my eyes, but the last two games weren't particularly amazing and the offense has been pretty unimpressive stretching back to Illinois.

That being said, three games ago was the defensive walloping of WCU so who knows. The Arkansas game is going to speak volumes.
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But still, one game isn't going to determine whether we're pretenders or contenders
 
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#30
#30
foolonthehill said:
For me it is just a feeling seasoned with some BVS. Saying that, I watched duke a lot, and we are at least on par with them if not better.
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Our team defense and rebounding will keep us in all games, and are the reasons we're contenders. If our shots are falling, we'll be tough to beat.
 
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#32
#32
We are pretenders if Igor and ZZ can't hit better than 20ish% of their outside shots and, especially, if Igor can't hit double figures regularly, like he hasn't since the Miami game. We have too many offensive liabilities right now and can't rely on Lanier to bail us out all the time. If ZZ and Milicic can right the ship in terms of scoring, then we are contenders, for sure.
 
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#34
#34
TrumpedUpVol said:
I definitely don't think Tennessee is a pretender, easily a top-five team in my eyes, but the last two games weren't particularly amazing and the offense has been pretty unimpressive stretching back to Illinois.

That being said, three games ago was the defensive walloping of WCU so who knows. The Arkansas game is going to speak volumes.
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I'm more in the ballpark of top 10. Cade Phillipis coming along has helped but to me Igor has to become a bigger offensive factor and consistently for us to be a top 4 team.
 
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#43
#43
The Dog said:
Jackson Browne, not only can sing, but was a stone cold pimp, in his heyday
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I’ve always been amazed that he wrote “These Days” at 16. The lyrics are beyond what a 16 YO would have ever experienced and the music isn’t basic as would be expected for someone 16 to me. Some folks are born with amazing gifts and JB is one of them.
 
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#44
#44
I think revision to the mean is on our side with the concern about the 3pt shooting from Igor and ZZ. Mostly Igor. Are the 3pt shots that he is taking high quality shots? Yes, very much. Does he have a history of making those shots? Yes. Shooting percentages in basketball are not linear. If he is going to finish the season around 35% (which history says is likely) then that means he will shoot above 40% for a long stretch at some point. So I am actually kind of the opposite of concerned about his shooting. ZZ similar idea but I am not sure he gets as many high quality 3pt shots as Igor so his percentage is likely to be lower.

There will likely be a little revision to the mean in the opposite direction for Chaz. But nothing catastrophic.
 
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#45
#45
therickbol said:
I think revision to the mean is on our side with the concern about the 3pt shooting from Igor and ZZ. Mostly Igor. Are the 3pt shots that he is taking high quality shots? Yes, very much. Does he have a history of making those shots? Yes. Shooting percentages in basketball are not linear. If he is going to finish the season around 35% (which history says is likely) then that means he will shoot above 40% for a long stretch at some point. So I am actually kind of the opposite of concerned about his shooting. ZZ similar idea but I am not sure he gets as many high quality 3pt shots as Igor so his percentage is likely to be lower.

There will likely be a little revision to the mean in the opposite direction for Chaz. But nothing catastrophic.
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#46
#46
therickbol said:
I think revision to the mean is on our side with the concern about the 3pt shooting from Igor and ZZ. Mostly Igor. Are the 3pt shots that he is taking high quality shots? Yes, very much. Does he have a history of making those shots? Yes. Shooting percentages in basketball are not linear. If he is going to finish the season around 35% (which history says is likely) then that means he will shoot above 40% for a long stretch at some point. So I am actually kind of the opposite of concerned about his shooting. ZZ similar idea but I am not sure he gets as many high quality 3pt shots as Igor so his percentage is likely to be lower.

There will likely be a little revision to the mean in the opposite direction for Chaz. But nothing catastrophic.
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Reversion* or regression*
 
#47
#47
rdk4121 said:
I think we're a good team, but i worry we're going to fall into the same problems we've had with previous Barnes teams, lack of offense. I think the rest of the season depends on Milicic. If he can be a consistent 10-12 point scorer, we're going to be elite. If he's just a 5-7 point scorer, we're probably 6-7th in the conference, which is still plenty good to make the tournament.

Obviously Chaz is great, ZZ will get you some buckets, Gainey looks like he can be consistent, but we just need another guy that can get you a bucket.
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See, I feel opposite. Depth and a true backup to the post big man are missing but as long as injuries don't happen we are fine. Just have to make sure we don't have get in foul trouble in a tournament game.

We have more ways to score and more well-rounded creative scorers with explosiveness than we have had most years, to go along with a physical, smart and very athletic D.

We have multiple outside shooters with Lanier being elite, Gainey is borderline elite and ZZ, Dubar & Milicic all have the ability to be 35-40%. We have ZZ and Gainey who can break down their man and drive or find open bigs and shooters. Lanier and Milicic can also break down their man and drive to the basket. Lanier and Gainey have good mid range games and Dubar has also shown flashes.

Felix, Cade and even Igor to some extent can play above the rim on lobs and put backs. Love the athleticism of our front court as a great match for our assets on the perimeter. We have enough variety, attacking speed, ball handling, passing ability, athletic/physical bigs and willing shooters to avoid the extended point droughts of years past.
 
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#48
#48
Unimane said:
We are pretenders if Igor and ZZ can't hit better than 20ish% of their outside shots and, especially, if Igor can't hit double figures regularly, like he hasn't since the Miami game. We have too many offensive liabilities right now and can't rely on Lanier to bail us out all the time. If ZZ and Milicic can right the ship in terms of scoring, then we are contenders, for sure.
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They may not be hitting much from 3 but both are providing points off the dribble and in the paint, have made great passes especially with ZZ's mastery of the offense, Igor has rebounded well and both have shown enough shooting ability in the past that leaving them open is a bad idea. They are far from offensive liabilities.
 
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