Recruiting Breakdown - the objective viewpoint

#27
#27
I have a hard time believing we aren't ranked near the top of the SEC in attrition the last 4 years. Such an attrition analysis should also weight the attrition by the number of stars the recruit has. Also, the above isn't taking into account the 4 and 5 star busts.

Not knocking your analysis, it's good stuff. I just suspect that when the blue chip busts and number of high potential recruits (not just all recruits equally weighted) are factored in, our numbers would look pretty ugly.
 
#28
#28
Wylo said:
Oregon hangs 50 on UT. Sorry, but its coming. Other than that, your post is pretty spot on.
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Would you have said before this post that Oregon and UT would have the exact same four year trailing recruiting average?
 
#29
#29
rjd970 said:
I have a hard time believing we aren't ranked near the top of the SEC in attrition the last 4 years. Such an attrition analysis should also weight the attrition by the number of stars the recruit has. Also, the above isn't taking into account the 4 and 5 star busts.

Not knocking your analysis, it's good stuff. I just suspect that when the blue chip busts and number of high potential recruits (not just all recruits equally weighted) are factored in, our numbers would look pretty ugly.
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Here is the best illustration that I can give you to try to show you that that sort of attrition is already factored in to this sort of analysis. The reality is (in very rough numbers) that something like 30% of 5* recruits, 15% of 4 star recruits, and 5% of 3 star recruits make it to the NFL. When you see numbers like that, you see that attrition across the board has to be very high. Granted, UT had one class that was almost a total bust, and that has been a hindrance. However, if you look at Dooley at LaTech you find that he under performed there in a similar way that he did at UT. Those two data sets tend to wash out trying to cover for attrition and limit the analysis to the under performance to the coach. The good news is that the mass attrition from Kiff's class is now basically removed from the average.
 
#31
#31
Good information for discussion OP, but there are way too many intangibles. Attrition, attrition of key players, injuries, and strength of schedule to name a few. LSU played Florida and South Carolina, while Bama and Georgia got a pass. Look who ended up in the CG. UT goes to Oregon and Bama next year while Vandy bought out the game with OSU and plays Ole Miss at home. Your numbers remind me of the BCS. A good starting point, but not always accurate.
 
#32
#32
See that is what most of you guys are missing. This isn't an untested theory, this is a tested evaluation. The data from 2002 to the present supports this. It is difficult for most to believe, that contrary to what ESPN and their gut tells them that a simple ordered list based on averages can tell you more than 70% of the time roughly how many games a team will win in any given season.

Another interesting fact: In a BCS championship game, no team has won who had the lower four year trailing average (at least as far back as the data takes me).
 
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#33
#33
I see what you are saying. I understand trend analysis and probability. If what you say is true, and I have no reason to doubt you, you could make a fortune in Vegas. If you can crunch some numbers to account for spreads, that is. You might consider it. You seem to have a head for numbers. Heard Doug Matthews talking this morning about how the BCS is going to add variables to the formula. Unless I misunderstood, key injuries and road victories will be a factor.
 
#34
#34
daj2576 said:
See that is what most of you guys are missing. This isn't an untested theory, this is a tested evaluation. The data from 2002 to the present supports this. It is difficult for most to believe, that contrary to what ESPN and their gut tells them that a simple ordered list based on averages can tell you more than 70% of the time roughly how many games a team will win in any given season.

Another interesting fact: In a BCS championship game, no team has won who had the lower four year trailing average (at least as far back as the data takes me).
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You have settled the "do stars matter" debate with your research and not many noticed! Just goes to show people would rather argue.
 
#35
#35
Teeman said:
You have settled the "do stars matter" debate with your research and not many noticed! Just goes to show people would rather argue.
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Lol

Let me turn to this: stars do matter, but....Jones is one of the few coaches who has historically over performed with his recruits. Think Patrino, as they have similar historical numbers. The difference is that Jones has already shown to improve recruiting, over time, at his previous locations. Petrino was relatively stagnant. I am talking in sweeping generalizations here, so there is no need to point out exceptions. :)
 
#36
#36
Teeman said:
I see what you are saying. I understand trend analysis and probability. If what you say is true, and I have no reason to doubt you, you could make a fortune in Vegas. If you can crunch some numbers to account for spreads, that is. You might consider it. You seem to have a head for numbers. Heard Doug Matthews talking this morning about how the BCS is going to add variables to the formula. Unless I misunderstood, key injuries and road victories will be a factor.
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That is an exceptional compliment. Thank you. This formula is too simple to predict the outcome vs spreads, or even individual games. It simply has proven to be a strong indicator of the seasonal outcomes. In other words, if you used this to gamble vs the spread, you'd win but not enough to make money to make it worthwhile. It's just a fun pass time.
 
#37
#37
Volfan2012 said:
I think Jones may be able to do more with that roster than Dooley hopefully four conference wins.
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I expect that CDD is putting the hoo-doo, voodoo chicken-bone on CBJ right about now. If the new staff comes in and surpasses his limited success in their first year, he looks all the worse.
 
#38
#38
Summary of the positives:

CBJ has punched above his weight historically, winning more games than his team talent predicts.

CBJ has improved upon the historical recruiting at his previous coaching gigs.

Not your data, but elsewhere stats indicated that the best predictor of coaching success was winning 9 games or more in a season at least once. CBJ won 9+ in 3 out of his 6 seasons as HC.

Of course intangibles always have to be factored in, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
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#39
#39
Orange_Crush said:
I expect that CDD is putting the hoo-doo, voodoo chicken-bone on CBJ right about now. If the new staff comes in and surpasses his limited success in their first year, he looks all the worse.
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That made me laugh picturing Dooley all voodooed up. Sadly he is being paid by both UT and Jerry Jones for his services so I doubt he cares.
 
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#40
#40
Interesting stuff. I am looking forward to getting Phil Steele's assessment of our 2012 season and his thoughts of how the wheels came off.
 
#41
#41
I really enjoyed the read. Being trained in six sigma I know that numbers don't lie. But one of the variables is the heart of our team. Last year it seemed we had the heart of a lamb (why we underperformed)but I believe this year our team will have the heart of a LION. I believe the energy CBJ brings to the table will a game changer. Once again thanks for the info share.
 
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#43
#43
madskills said:
I really enjoyed the read. Being trained in six sigma I know that numbers don't lie. But one of the variables is the heart of our team. Last year it seemed we had the heart of a lamb (why we underperformed)but I believe this year our team will have the heart of a LION. I believe the energy CBJ brings to the table will a game changer. Once again thanks for the info share.
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Your metaphorical heart analogies, are great points and should be noted as a variable to be watched very closely.
 
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#45
#45
tm3 said:
maybe daj can tell us the four year trailing average of heart?
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I ran those calculations and the calculator kept producing this error message for UT during Dooley's tenure: DNR.

Edit: I realize that DNR might be too veiled for many, but it means "do not resuscitate". Maybe that would have been a funnier statement if I said: CPR in progress. Lol
 
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#46
#46
daj2576 said:
I ran those calculations and the calculator kept producing this error message for UT during Dooley's tenure: DNR.

Edit: I realize that DNR might be too veiled for many, but it means "do not resuscitate". Maybe that would have been a funnier statement if I said: CPR in progress. Lol
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Maybe CBJ can get us off the "life support"
 
#47
#47
daj2576 said:
2013 Nation Wide:
  1. Alabama
  2. Florida
  3. USC
  4. Florida State
  5. Auburn
  6. Texas
  7. LSU
  8. Ohio State
  9. Georgia
  10. Oklahoma
  11. Notre Dame
  12. Michigan
  13. Clemson
  14. Tennessee
.

2012 Nation Wide:

  1. Alabama
  2. Texas
  3. USC
  4. Florida State
  5. Florida
  6. LSU
  7. Georgia
  8. Auburn
  9. Ohio State
  10. Oklahoma
  11. Tennessee
  12. Michigan
  13. Notre Dame
  14. Oregon
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I neglected to point out an interesting note about this: last year in the final BCS standings, 16 of the top 25 teams were teams in the top 25 when viewed from a four year trailing recruiting perspective. Some of the noteworthy teams that were left out were USC, UT, Miami, UNC, Auburn etc. the common thread was that the teams who who recruited in the top 25 , yet fell out of the BCS top 25, were either banned from post season play or had coaches with a history of severe under performance (Kiff, Dooley, Chizik).
 
#48
#48
The first part is recruits...did ok not great.
The next part is training & conditioning. From what I hear in the weight room, we are making huge improvements since CBJ staff took over.
The third part is coaching, I think we went from 2.4 stars to 4+. My thoughts are with CBJ and Janzen last year, keeping the other coaches, we would have won Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia. Vandy (team gave on coach), Miss St (Remember Dooley gave them a 4 day pass on the bye week) and Florida were all very winable. Bama game would have been at least 17 points closer. So now you're talking about a team that could have been somewhere between 9-4 with a bowl win to 12-1 if the chips fall right.

Next year: I think 9-4 is attainable, even with the horrible schedule. Should win Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, South Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Auburn.

Favored to lose bama, Florida and Oregon.

Toss up: Georgia, South Carolina and Vandy.

Win one toss up and a bowl game and we are 9-4. I think graduations are gonna sting GA on defense and Vandy lost 2 best offensive playmakers.
 
#49
#49
HuntlandVolinColo said:
{snip...}

Next year: I think 9-4 is attainable, even with the horrible schedule. Should win Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, South Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Auburn.

Favored to lose bama, Florida and Oregon.

Toss up: Georgia, South Carolina and Vandy.

Win one toss up and a bowl game and we are 9-4. I think graduations are gonna sting GA on defense and Vandy lost 2 best offensive playmakers.
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Actually, win one toss up and a bowl game, and we are 8-5, but I understand where you were going. And I do not share your optimism that UGA is a toss-up. I think they will be a darn good team, especially since Murray will be back.

daj - I'm on record as saying that I appreciate how you think (but I'm sure I have objected a few times). Just for the record, do you remove the players who have left the team for whatever reason (e.g. Rogers, Patterson, Bray, etc.) that would have been in the four year class?
 
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#50
#50
globadoc said:
Actually, win one toss up and a bowl game, and we are 8-5, but I understand where you were going. And I do not share your optimism that UGA is a toss-up. I think they will be a darn good team, especially since Murray will be back.

daj - I'm on record as saying that I appreciate how you think (but I'm sure I have objected a few times). Just for the record, do you remove the players who have left the team for whatever reason (e.g. Rogers, Patterson, Bray, etc.) that would have been in the four year class?
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No, this analysis does not account for attrition specifically. As I have mentioned before, without any sort of tweaks to the overall formula, you can get to somewhere around the 70% prediction range. Sure, you get spend a great deal of time trying to wash out injuries, attrition, etc, but what is the point if you are above about 55% on your ability to predict the outcome (unless you are trying to gamble, which this analysis cannot be used to beat the spread consistently).
 
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