Recruiting Breakdown - the objective viewpoint

#76
#76
miles would be especially interesting. he of course walked into a perfect setup at LSWho, but has done quite well even after satan's recruits dried up. on paper, i don't see anything in his college coaching resume to indicate that he would have been predicted to be better than CBJ or even be that successful in the SEC.

did someone on the bayou see something in the voodoo ball, or did they just get lucky?
 
#77
#77
tm3 said:
miles would be especially interesting. he of course walked into a perfect setup at LSWho, but has done quite well even after satan's recruits dried up. on paper, i don't see anything in his college coaching resume to indicate that he would have been predicted to be better than CBJ or even be that successful in the SEC.

did someone on the bayou see something in the voodoo ball, or did they just get lucky?
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Marie Laveau - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
#78
#78
99gator said:
as was said during the signing day telecasts, half of the battle after getting signatures is retention.

what no one has ever found a way to measure in a table like the one in the original post is a way to see who actually is keeping the talent they signed and who has had heavy losses for a variety of reasons
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Check out the work of lwsvol, who maintains a site with a lot of that information over time.

Quick Conclusion: from his past review, there is very little difference, over time, in attrition rates by coach or program. A few coaches (Orgeron, Kiffin) have had a horrid history of high attrition, but most programs show a rate close to even amongst them.
 
#79
#79
VegasVol said:
Check out the work of lwsvol, who maintains a site with a lot of that information over time.

Quick Conclusion: from his past review, there is very little difference, over time, in attrition rates by coach or program. A few coaches (Orgeron, Kiffin) have had a horrid history of high attrition, but most programs show a rate close to even amongst them.
Click to expand...

VV what is the link for larry's site?
 
#81
#81
daj2576 said:
I would love to do this with Saban/Miles and others, the problem is using Rivals (my arbitrarily preferred information provider) I can only find data back to 2002. Beyond Petrino and now Sumlin, I don't think that one could do a similar analysis.

I would love to find Saban and Mile's recruiting data before they both went to LSU. It is more complicated than that, obviously, because I need the recruiting data for everyone they played too.
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Such data exists, but it is spread out across various print publications, recaptured in various websites across the web. One way one can infer their recruiting success is to look at the number of NFL players they landed on their roster during their tenure.

Saban

1990-1994: 5 years pre-Saban
Total: 14 players 2+ seasons in NFL
Average: 2.1 NFL players per recruiting class

1995-1999: Saban's 5-year tenure
Total: 14 players 2+ seasons in NFL
Average: 2.5 players per recruiting class

Upshot: Saban slightly improved Michigan State's recruiting success compared to the norm at the program, but wasn't building a top-tier program there.

Per Miles @ Okie State,

1997-2000: 4 years pre-Miles
Total: 6 players 2+ seasons in NFL
Average: 1.5 players per recruiting class

2001-2004: Miles' 4-year tenure
Total: 9 players 2+ seasons in NFL
Average: 2.1 players per recruiting class

Upshot: Miles slightly improved Oklahoma State's recruiting success compared to the norm at the program, but wasn't building a top-tier program there either.
 
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#82
#82
tm3 said:
miles would be especially interesting. he of course walked into a perfect setup at LSWho, but has done quite well even after satan's recruits dried up. on paper, i don't see anything in his college coaching resume to indicate that he would have been predicted to be better than CBJ or even be that successful in the SEC.

did someone on the bayou see something in the voodoo ball, or did they just get lucky?
Click to expand...

Saban walked into a very good situation as well, from a talent perspective, as Dinardo had landed several good classes before Saban arrived; in fact, Saban inherited 4 straight top-10 recruiting classes from Dinardo.
 
#83
#83
VegasVol said:
Such data exists, but it is spread out across various print publications, recaptured in various websites across the web. One way one can infer their recruiting success is to look at the number of NFL players they landed on their roster during their tenure.

Saban

1990-1994: 5 years pre-Saban
Total: 14 players 2+ seasons in NFL
Average: 2.1 NFL players per recruiting class

1995-1999: Saban's 5-year tenure
Total: 14 players 2+ seasons in NFL
Average: 2.5 players per recruiting class

Upshot: Saban slightly improved Michigan State's recruiting success compared to the norm at the program, but wasn't building a top-tier program there.

Per Miles @ Okie State,

1997-2000: 4 years pre-Miles
Total: 6 players 2+ seasons in NFL
Average: 1.5 players per recruiting class

2001-2004: Miles' 4-year tenure
Total: 9 players 2+ seasons in NFL
Average: 2.1 players per recruiting class

Upshot: Miles slightly improved Michigan State's recruiting success compared to the norm at the program, but wasn't building a top-tier program there either.
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Interesting numbers. Without "outing" anyone, have you and I spoken on the phone recently? Your analysis seems eerily similar to someone that I recently discussed similar issues with.
 
#85
#85
good info... works on paper, let's hope CBJ can live up to the average...

If he goes 7-4 we will have a good recruiting class next year (because of in-state recruits and legacies)

If he goes 9 or ten wins he will have a top five class

I hope for ten wins
 
#86
#86
#87
#87
Just FYI, here is an interesting article written about this analysis. I have never been interviewed for a news article before. This was an interesting, humbling and flattering experience.

Shopper-News

If anyone around Knoxville has access to the "shopper-news" I would like to get a few copies of it. Email me and I will gladly pay for shipping.

thanks!
 
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#88
#88
Congrats, Derek. That's cool. Will you remember us when your some big shot consultant for collegiate programs? :)
 
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#89
#89
McDad said:
Congrats, Derek. That's cool. Will you remember us when your some big shot consultant for collegiate programs? :)
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If you wear orange, you will always be in my thoughts. ;)

I should say this, my analysis is elementary and crude compared to some stuff I have seen recently. let's just say that my eyes have been opened, and sadly, I will not be able to share the visions I have been privileged to have.
 
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#90
#90
daj2576 said:
If you wear orange, you will always be in my thoughts. ;)

I should say this, my analysis is elementary and crude compared to some stuff I have seen recently. let's just say that my eyes have been opened, and sadly, I will not be able to share the visions I have been privileged to have.
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Oh you dirty, dirty tease. How dare you analysis drop like that and then not give us the full story.

Create an alter and give us the info anonymously???
 
#91
#91
daj2576 said:
Just FYI, here is an interesting article written about this analysis. I have never been interviewed for a news article before. This was an interesting, humbling and flattering experience.

Shopper-News

If anyone around Knoxville has access to the "shopper-news" I would like to get a few copies of it. Email me and I will gladly pay for shipping.

thanks!
Click to expand...


Congrats man! You deserve the accolades.
 
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#92
#92
McDad said:
Oh you dirty, dirty tease. How dare you analysis drop like that and then not give us the full story.

Create an alter and give us the info anonymously???
Click to expand...

I know, I felt bad even typing that.

Truth be told, I just can't share information that isn't mine. This aforementioned information is clearly not mine and would be a breach of trust if I shared. :(

As I have always said, my analysis is relatively solid for the 60-70% prediction range; better than some information on a message board but not good enough for real professional use.
 
#93
#93
daj2576 said:
I know, I felt bad even typing that.

Truth be told, I just can't share information that isn't mine. This aforementioned information is clearly not mine and would be a breach of trust if I shared. :(

As I have always said, my analysis is relatively solid for the 60-70% prediction range; better than some information on a message board but not good enough for real professional use.
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Could you re-rank the last 4 years based on the amount of attrition which has occurred with each class?

If you could put a true value of each class reflecting all the players that left the program after signing, we would get class rankings more closely aligned with actual W-L records.
 
#94
#94
UT Hill Man said:
Could you re-rank the last 4 years based on the amount of attrition which has occurred with each class?

If you could put a true value of each class reflecting all the players that left the program after signing, we would get class rankings more closely aligned with actual W-L records.
Click to expand...


To answer your question: sadly I do not have the time any longer to run these or more complicated evaluations (at least not in the near term). I should rephrase that to: I do not have the ability to run these sort of evaluations and post them on a message board any longer. As I mentioned, I have been honored with the opportunity to work with others who do this sort of thing at a much higher level and I do not want to cross the line between fun message board posts of a system I created, and/or unintentionally sharing data or conclusions from systems that others have created and I helped interpret, if that makes sense.

Bottom line though, I think your discussion has merit and value, I just will have to leave everything as it stands currently. Thanks everyone for the great discussion over the past few months. The majority of you guys/gals have shown me that there are, in fact, reasonable and respectable people that post on message boards.

Still though, has anyone around Knoxville ran across the "Shopper News" article referenced above? I would love to get my hands on a few copies and I will gladly pay for shipping and other associated costs.
 
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#95
#95
I am really curious about what you are moving on to, but can understand your not wanting to post on this forum.

Good luck and thanks for what you have done here.

When the movie premiers I can point and say "I know that dude" (sort of).
 
#96
#96
daj2576 said:
If you wear orange, you will always be in my thoughts. ;)

I should say this, my analysis is elementary and crude compared to some stuff I have seen recently. let's just say that my eyes have been opened, and sadly, I will not be able to share the visions I have been privileged to have.
Click to expand...

So, you've been privileged to see more detailed data, and your projections are slightly off? Can you give hints? Projections better? Worse? No specifics...
 
#97
#97
tm3 said:
I am really curious about what you are moving on to, but can understand your not wanting to post on this forum.

Good luck and thanks for what you have done here.

When the movie premiers I can point and say "I know that dude" (sort of).
Click to expand...

Very flattering, but I can assure you there won't be a movie.

I will be around, I just will stay out of the number crunching side of things for awhile. :)
 
#98
#98
Orange_Crush said:
So, you've been privileged to see more detailed data, and your projections are slightly off? Can you give hints? Projections better? Worse? No specifics...
Click to expand...

I have been privileged to see more detailed systems. After a cursory review of some of these "systems" I can tell you that I feel like, in comparison, mine was done with finger paint and/or crayon. It isn't that I am way off, or incorrect it is that my system falls short and is imperfect. A 60-70% correlation is a strong indicator after all, but allows for an improvement of 30-40%.

I am still in awe of the predictive ability of numbers.
 
#99
#99
daj2576 said:
I have been privileged to see more detailed systems. After a cursory review of some of these "systems" I can tell you that I feel like, in comparison, mine was done with finger paint and/or crayon. It isn't that I am way off, or incorrect it is that my system falls short and is imperfect. A 60-70% correlation is a strong indicator after all, but allows for an improvement of 30-40%.

I am still in awe of the predictive ability of numbers.
Click to expand...

I can understand that. I would think that more detailed systems would take into account attrition rates, etc...

But still.... Kudos and great work.
 
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