Recruiting Football Talk VII

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#41,976
#41,976
I created an ELO model for win probabilities in college football last night. It's bare bones, and doesn't take in any advanced stats yet, just simply looks at historical win/loss/spreads over the last 3 years and into this season. It doesn't have anything opponent adjusted or even home field advantage yet. For now I just manually adjusted 3 points off the away team. Going to implement those later to really dial in what I want the model to pay attention to. In other words, very untrustworthy at the moment. That being said, this is what it gave me for UT today:

-1 Tennessee at Missouri (-4 before manually adjusting 3 points since we are away)

That's close to what the real line is, DraftKings is at -2.5 currently, but other ones I ran for notable match ups today seemed further off. For example, Washington vs Utah, at Washington, was essentially a pick em in my model but DK has Washington at -8. I think the main reason is that the model is weighing too heavy on prior seasons currently. Kind of like FPI with their rolling 3 year model being slow to catch up to a major uptick for a team in a season. Will need to look ways to counter that. Plus, the lack of any advanced stats so far doesn't help either. That will help.
 
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#41,979
#41,979
Vol423 said:
I agree with you that Penn State's schedule is a joke, and that they lost to the only team with a pulse that they have played (what else is new?). However, is 20-12 really being dominated from start to finish? I don't think so.
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and did you watch the game? Because I did and it was pure domination of PSU’s offense

Also, PSU scored a TD with 30 seconds or so left in the game
 
#41,985
#41,985
mrMet said:
and did you watch the game? Because I did and it was pure domination of PSU’s offense

Also, PSU scored a TD with 30 seconds or so left in the game
Click to expand...
I watched the game. Ohio State controlled the game, but they didn't light up the scoreboard and put the game away. That's how a team ends up choking away a game they had no business losing. PSU was within one score and had the opportunity to try an onside kick that would have given them shots into the end zone to tie up the game. That's not what I classify as a dominating performance. Ohio State should have put that game away early. They weren't good enough to do so.
 
#41,986
#41,986
mrMet said:
and did you watch the game? Because I did and it was pure domination of PSU’s offense

Also, PSU scored a TD with 30 seconds or so left in the game
Click to expand...
And I’m going to double down on this after looking back at the game… Penn St didn’t even get into OSU red zone until 1:12 left in the 4th quarter lol

So yeah, pure domination
 
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#41,987
#41,987
Vol423 said:
I watched the game. Ohio State controlled the game, but they didn't light up the scoreboard and put the game away. That's how a team ends up choking away a game they had no business losing. PSU was within one score and had the opportunity to try to onside kick that would have given them shots into the end zone to tie up the game. That's not what I classify as a dominating performance. Ohio State should have put that game away early. They weren't good enough to do so.
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I referred to PSU offense. They are awful. See my next post
 
#41,992
#41,992
mrMet said:
I referred to PSU offense. They are awful. See my next post
Click to expand...
You and I disagree. A team that finishes a game losing by one score wasn't dominated. I would have been incredibly frustrated watching that game if I were a fan of EITHER team. They both performed poorly.
 
#41,995
#41,995
Nash_Vol97 said:
I created an ELO model for win probabilities in college football last night. It's bare bones, and doesn't take in any advanced stats yet, just simply looks at historical win/loss/spreads over the last 3 years and into this season. It doesn't have anything opponent adjusted or even home field advantage yet. For now I just manually adjusted 3 points off the away team. Going to implement those later to really dial in what I want the model to pay attention to. In other words, very untrustworthy at the moment. That being said, this is what it gave me for UT today:

-1 Tennessee at Missouri (-4 before manually adjusting 3 points since we are away)

That's close to what the real line is, DraftKings is at -2.5 currently, but other ones I ran for notable match ups today seemed further off. For example, Washington vs Utah, at Washington, was essentially a pick em in my model but DK has Washington at -8. I think the main reason is that the model is weighing too heavy on prior seasons currently. Kind of like FPI with their rolling 3 year model being slow to catch up to a major uptick for a team in a season. Will need to look ways to counter that. Plus, the lack of any advanced stats so far doesn't help either. That will help.
Click to expand...
Interested to hear more about this as you tune it 👍

Pretty cool
 
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#41,997
#41,997
Vol423 said:
You and I disagree. A team that finishes a game losing by one score wasn't dominated. I would have been incredibly frustrated watching that game if I were a fan of EITHER team. They both performed poorly.
Click to expand...
Ever heard of a back door cover? Where a team is dominated the entire game and scores in garbage time to cover the spread. That’s precisely what that game was lol OSU was never scared of losing that game

Domination
 
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#41,998
#41,998
mrMet said:
Ever heard of a back door cover? Where a team is dominated the entire game and scores in garbage time to cover the spread. That’s precisely what that game was lol OSU was never scared of losing that game

Domination
Click to expand...
Once again, since you don't seem to be grasping this. You and I disagree.
 
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