Recruiting Football Talk VII

[Ulysees E. McGill]

That's and you know it. What's our best win? KY or A&M?

What?...that we LITERALLY beat 9 teams?

You remember 3 years ago when we lost a load of games and had a bottom 3rd of the NCAA defense?...I remember. It sucks that you are going full Chiggerhorde retard on Banks and the defense...it's dumb.

The defense has gotten quantifiably measurably better every year since Banks took over..period. I don't understand why you hate him so bad....and never will.

 

[CAVPUT]

Karic is a waste of resources imo...but hopefully he gets it together and shows us what was seen in him.

Shocked he didn't go portaling like Addison Nichols. Regardless of how they feel about him and his future, we can't count on him, I don't think we can count on him next year. We need a guy or two from the portal who can either start or be a legit player as a backup should injuries come and they will come.

 

[MarcoVol]

Shocked he didn't go portaling like Addison Nichols. Regardless of how they feel about him and his future, we can't count on him, I don't think we can count on him next year. We need a guy or two from the portal who can either start or be a legit player as a backup should injuries come and they will come.

How do you know you can count on players from the portal?

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

View attachment 607283

Slim to none

 

[Vols410]

i'm not sure who Seldon reminds me of yet. he's bigger than Wright and Sampson. honestly, he looks more like those traditionally big backs Bama roll out there almost ever year....6'2 or 3, 220-230 lbs and can run like a freight train.

the first time that kid runs over a LB......................................can't wait.

Absolutely. Wasn't really speaking to size as much as how it always seemed like Wright had the speed/power to do damage if he could just get to the opening quickly enough but he was hesitant at times. Mack had time to work with him and he's grown a ton there.

If Seldon can take the same leap in his ability to identify the hole quickly and get there I think he'll be every bit as good. Looks like he has every bit of speed/power that Jaylen does.

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

That is beautiful

 

[SmokinBob]

it's january so this is me not overreacting....

but, i think this team is so inconsistent on the offensive end, again, that it plants that seed of doubt. i still don't know who you go to when you need a bucket. that said, i think JJJ has gotten better. he's been more aggressive this year so far, and that needs to continue. he's too big and athletic not to be more forceful to either drive and score/get fouled, or get it back outside to a shooter.

and i also think they have to find more consistent ways to get the ball inside to the bigs. I like what ive seen from JP, he has real potential and awaka is a beast. Aidoo....just inconsistent. not bad, not great.....but either way, when Tennessee has moved the ball inside out, the offense flows so much better.

but we get stuck just passing the ball around the perimeter....ugh.

anyway...i'm inclined to think that this pre season will serve us well, but if this team wants to make a serious run, they have to find consistency on the offensive end, and they need a couple of guys to step up be the "give me the ball" guy when you need to go get a bucket.

the fact that we can still go cold as a team on offense is infuriating, and in a one and done scenario, that simply can't be on the table in March. too much experience and talent on this team this year for "going cold" to be a thing.

as long as that's still a thing, i won't be surprised at really any result this season. could go to the final four or get bounced in the 2nd round. just, depends....

still not overreacting....just random thoughts i've had watching this team so far this year. i'm excited to see what we do against Ole Miss this weekend.

This is what frustrates me the most - no one wants to take the shot and/or no creative movement off the ball toward the basket.

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

Who's Chuckie?

Some dude that ignored me

 

[CAVPUT]

How do you know you can count on players from the portal?

If it's a guy who has game tape, I think it's reasonable to think a coaching staff can tell if a guy can help next year vs a guy like Karic. Take our Nichols for example, there's just nothing there for another program to look at and make a determination. A guy like Heard will have tape. Now I'm no scout so I can't say he'd be an upgrade over Karic of if he's capable of starting or playing well enough to help us next year, but our coaches certainly can. Just can't imagine seeing the same backups being forced into extended playing time again next year. We just need to have more talent on the OL be it as a starter or as a backup who can really help.

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

My guess (based on their history) was proven right when more of the interview was released. Then I turned my attention to Mayo boy: keep reading! .

Yeah...pretty much

 

[MarcoVol]

Kensucky fans are excited because there’s smoke that AJ Harris might transfer to them.

 

[MarcoVol]

If it's a guy who has game tape, I think it's reasonable to think a coaching staff can tell if a guy can help next year vs a guy like Karic. Take our Nichols for example, there's just nothing there for another program to look at and make a determination. A guy like Heard will have tape. Now I'm no scout so I can't say he'd be an upgrade over Karic of if he's capable of starting or playing well enough to help us next year, but our coaches certainly can. Just can't imagine seeing the same backups being forced into extended playing time again next year. We just need to have more talent on the OL be it as a starter or as a backup who can really help.

They took Karic from the portal just last year

 

[jakez4ut]

View attachment 607300

I just love the way the schedule is cut up next year.

That OU game is everything, in my opinion. The same way that the Florida game is traditionally the early-season indicator of whether or not the season has the potential to be special.

Win that game, and the Florida and Bama ticket prices are going to shoot through the roof. Neyland will be as electric as ever.

Love the revenge opportunity for Heupel at OU early. Love the revenge opportunity for the team at home vs Florida.

Did we sell out of season tix yet? What's the phone number again?

it's 4 games, right.....OU, UF, Bama, UGA. 2 at home, 2 on the road. i think if we do beat OU, that UF game looks really nice....how about FL and Bama, back to back in Neyland? that's actually kinda cool. the schedule is broken up quite nicely and the two bye weeks are huge i think.

it's a long time til August 31, but i think 9-3 is the floor for us...at least right now that's what i think....Bama and UGA definitley the two toughest ones. but i do agree, winning that OU game makes a lot of things later on more possible. big game in Sept as usual.

 

[Nash_Vol97]

My issue is with the defense. People have went on and on about improvement on the defensive side. The improvement was due to a much weaker schedule at least from an opposing team's offense perspective. Overall I'm pleased with the team. I think Tim Banks and his scheme are the Achilles heel of this staff.

I looked at the bolded statement recently and looked at all of our opponents offensive efficiency rating over the last 3 years. I used SP+ advanced stats, ESPN FPI advanced stats, and then looked at opponent adjusted PPA/EPA which is very important for looking at how units performed.

SP+ Opponent adjusted offensive efficiency ratings supported your thoughts.. National average in parentheses:
2021- 28.65 (28.64)
2022- 27.77 (27.67)
2023- 26.98 (25.86)

ESPN FPI Opponent adjusted offensive efficiency ratings didn’t agree with your thoughts, they actually think 2023 was the hardest we faced.. National average in parentheses:
2021 - 56.67 (49.14)
2022- 59.56 (48.99)
2023- 62.74 (49.69)

So SP+ thinks last year was the worst out of the 3 when averaging offenses efficiency ratings that we faced. ESPN FPI though thinks the opposite and they think 2023 was the toughest.

Both of those ratings are built off a number of different stats and analyses and they both will weight things differently, so not too surprising they are different, but one thing that is the backbone of a lot of advanced stats in football is Predicted Points Added (PPA)/Expected Points Added (EPA). This looks at every play an offense/defense/special teams has for the year and adds a point value for success or not success plus some other factors. If you look at opponent adjusted PPA of the offenses we have faced the last 3 years:

2021- .216 (.201)
2022- .208 (.177)
2023- .212 (.179)

So, PPA would have his first year as the toughest, then 2023, then 2022. In the end it depends on what service you want to use to support whatever argument when it comes to SP+ and ESPN FPI.. but PPA/EPA is the very close to the same formula no matter who does it so I look at that one a little more heavily personally. JMO.

This wasn’t meant to say you are wrong or right, everyone can make their own hypothesis based off the stats and what they think they saw over the year and at least one of the advanced stats agrees with you, I just wanted to provide some numbers for anyone interested for the bolded statement in your post.

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

Stability is what won Iowa ten games last year. Nothing more. Literally nothing more. It sure wasn't talent or scheme.

Huepel leans into schematic advantages. Stability and continuity are part of that formula. Does he lean into it too hard like Ferentz? I don't think so, but some might. It is Heupel's strategy though. He does not lie to players he does not over commit, he holds his promises (Milton), and some ask why. The answer: stability for players. They know what to expect because he sticks to his word. Did that strategy land us Seaton? No. Did it produce some of the lowest turnover in the conference? Yes.

If you want to have debates I think this is the debate. Is ultimate CFB success possible with loyalty and stability as a priority? Washington is a case study this year. It will be interesting to see how they finish.

Stability is what won Iowa ten games last year. Nothing more. Literally nothing more. It sure wasn't talent or scheme.

Huepel leans into schematic advantages. Stability and continuity are part of that formula. Does he lean into it too hard like Ferentz? I don't think so, but some might. It is Heupel's strategy though. He does not lie to players he does not over commit, he holds his promises (Milton), and some ask why. The answer: stability for players. They know what to expect because he sticks to his word. Did that strategy land us Seaton? No. Did it produce some of the lowest turnover in the conference? Yes.

If you want to have debates I think this is the debate. Is ultimate CFB success possible with loyalty and stability as a priority? Washington is a case study this year. It will be interesting to see how they finish.

Washington doesn't have to "finish" to have proof of concept...the fact they are there is all the proof anybody should need.

 

[jakez4ut]

I looked at the bolded statement recently and looked at all of our opponents offensive efficiency rating over the last 3 years. I used SP+ advanced stats, ESPN FPI advanced stats, and then looked at opponent adjusted PPA which is very important for looking at how units performed.

SP+ Opponent adjusted offensive efficiency ratings supported your thoughts.. National average in parentheses:
2021- 28.65 (28.64)
2022- 27.77 (27.67)
2023- 26.98 (25.86)

ESPN FPI Opponent adjusted offensive efficiency ratings didn’t agree with your thoughts, they actually think 2023 was the hardest we faced.. National average in parentheses:
2021 - 56.67 (49.14)
2022- 59.56 (48.99)
2023- 62.74 (49.69)

So SP+ thinks last year was the worst out of the 3 when averaging offenses efficiency ratings that we faced. ESPN FPI though thinks the opposite and they think 2023 was the toughest.

Both of those ratings are built off a number of different stats and analyses and they both will weight things differently, so not too surprising they are different, but one thing that is the backbone of a lot of advanced stats in football is Predicted Points Added (PPA). This looks at every play an offense/defense/special teams has for the year and adds a point value for success or not success plus some other factors. If you look at opponent adjusted PPA of the offenses we have faced the last 3 years:

2021- .216 (.201)
2022- .208 (.177)
2023- .212 (.179)

So, PPA would have his first year as the toughest, then 2023, then 2022. In the end it depends on what service you want to use to support whatever argument when it comes to SP+ and ESPN FPI.. but PPA is the same formula no matter what so I look at that one a little more heavily personally. JMO.

This wasn’t meant to say you are wrong or right, everyone can make their own hypothesis based off the stats and what they think they saw over the year and at least one of the advanced stats agrees with you, I just wanted to provide some numbers for anyone interested for the bolded statement in your post.

 

[Smyrna ATL Vol]

View attachment 607300

I just love the way the schedule is cut up next year.

That OU game is everything, in my opinion. The same way that the Florida game is traditionally the early-season indicator of whether or not the season has the potential to be special.

Win that game, and the Florida and Bama ticket prices are going to shoot through the roof. Neyland will be as electric as ever.

Love the revenge opportunity for Heupel at OU early. Love the revenge opportunity for the team at home vs Florida.

Did we sell out of season tix yet? What's the phone number again?

It’s a great schedule for our standards.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Projecting OL starters:

LT - John Campbell Jr. (Mincey OR Johnson III)
LG - Karic (?) (Lang)
C - Cooper Mays
RG - Spraggins (?) (Lang)
RT - Gerald Mincey (Sham OR Johnson III)

Few of the guys I'm not sure where they are in the pecking order... Reddick will be entering year 3, but he's 6'5" and 340lbs a bit too heavy probably to be interior and I'm not sure if he's got the length to play tackle. Brian Grant also will be entering year 3 and he's 6'7" 329lbs and was getting reps at tackle ahead of Sham & Johnson III this season...so he could be in the 2 deep). I feel like Lang needs to drop 10-15 pounds of bad weight and he should be set for either guard role 6'4" 337lbs. I know they like Ayden Bussell a lot, but I think he's going to be focusing on Center and backing up Cooper, 6'5" 295lbs.

I really have doubts an incoming freshmen ends up starting or in the 2 deep...but Bennett Warren (6'8" 330lbs) is the highest rated OL we've brought in so he could be that dude. Max Anderson (6'5" 309lbs) I think probably is moved inside ultimately unless he's got some great feet and long arms that's a tad undersized for OT in SEC. William Satterwhite (6'3" 300lbs) is kind of a perfect size for Guard/Center just needs to have good feet/strength. Jesse Perry (6'5" 278lbs) is probably the top RS candidate IMO even though he's higher rated than Gage Ginther (6'6" 287lbs) Perry will need to add the most size/strength of the incoming guys.

If Spraggins returns then we're going to be in a great spot next season for the OL...Karic has used a transfer and is just a Junior with 1 year left to play, he was taken in as a developmental guy and just happened to earn the starting spot before getting hurt. Might not be a starter when the dust settles but should be good depth either way.

 

[Kas232323]

Stability is what won Iowa ten games last year. Nothing more. Literally nothing more. It sure wasn't talent or scheme.

Huepel leans into schematic advantages. Stability and continuity are part of that formula. Does he lean into it too hard like Ferentz? I don't think so, but some might. It is Heupel's strategy though. He does not lie to players he does not over commit, he holds his promises (Milton), and some ask why. The answer: stability for players. They know what to expect because he sticks to his word. Did that strategy land us Seaton? No. Did it produce some of the lowest turnover in the conference? Yes.

If you want to have debates I think this is the debate. Is ultimate CFB success possible with loyalty and stability as a priority? Washington is a case study this year. It will be interesting to see how they finish.

A ridiculously weak schedule is how Iowa won 10 games. They didn’t even score a single point against the three good opponents they faced. They were destroyed all 3 games.

 

[jakez4ut]

Washington doesn't have to "finish" to have proof of concept...the fact they are there is all the proof anybody should need.

that, and they have a really good coach and staff. not sure how sustainable it all is, but in a results oriented venture...hard to argue.

 

[DD4ME]

Washington doesn't have to "finish" to have proof of concept...the fact they are there is all the proof anybody should need.

I agree

 

[DD4ME]

that, and they have a really good coach and staff. not sure how sustainable it all is, but in a results oriented venture...hard to argue.

My point was a lot of that staff is unsung journeymen that people dismiss.

 

[orangejuice]

I would say at this point, there are some obvious issues under the surface with this kat. Auburn was rumored to be the favorite to land him and it came out they moved on, then UK was rumored and they seem to have moved on, and we seemed to have moved on as well.

 

[jakez4ut]

This is what frustrates me the most - no one wants to take the shot and/or no creative movement off the ball toward the basket.

i know Barnes is a defense first coach....and typically that's how i would lean in a given situation as well.

but there are times where we look lost on offense. i don't know who has the offensive responsiblity on the staff, or what mandates they've been given, but it sure seems like we need to improve on that end.

you know this game would be a lot easier if we just didn't allow the other team to score any buckets, and we made all of ours. is that too much to ask for?

 

[Orange.]

Looking at the 2024 schedules it's noteworthy that Bama has been gifted open dates the weeks before playing (1) GA and (2) LSU. Ours were set before Arky and KY.