Today is the first day (Jan 22) of the new season, classes starting and winter workouts. So here we go.
Why Kalen DeBoer may not work out at Alabama –
I saw some Tide fans expressing concern about DeBoer maybe being another Tom Herman. I think the idea is success at a lesser program and maybe success as a big time offensive coordinator isn’t the same as being proven. Herman was the OC at Ohio State the year they won the NC. Anyway, DeBoer was the OC at Indiana the year they made a little noise, 2019.
In mid-December of 2019 he was hired to be the HC at Fresno State but chose to split time so he could run his Hoosier offense against the Volunteers of Tennessee in the Jan 2nd Gator bowl. His offense was 3/14 in the Big-10 in total offense, 5/14 in scoring offense, 2/14 in passing offense, and 12/14 in rushing offense.
That latter ranking, imo, may be, at least up to this point in his career, his Achilles heel. Whether at Indiana, Fresno State, or Washington, his success on offense is heavily weighted towards the passing game. I’d probably be a bit leery of that coming into the SEC. If you can’t run the ball in the SEC it’s very often hard to find success on the scoreboard as that 2019 Tennessee team demonstrated for his Hoosiers in that Gator bowl and as Michigan demonstrated for his Huskies in the national championship game this year.
I looked at Alabama’s schedule for next year and though it’s too early to say I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they lost at least 5 games in the 2024 regular season, assuming DeBoer sticks to his playbook. Even against Wisconsin he’s likely to face a competent run defense. I think he may struggle against most teams with a good run defense and then it becomes can his passing game outscore the other team. Relying solely on the passing game to put points on the board oftentimes does not work against the best of the big leagues. jmo.
Missouri is getting a lot of preseason hype coming off their best season since 2014 but I think that hype may be a bit premature and uninformed. jmo.
The first thing a good head coach needs to do is put together a good coaching staff. Drinkwitz at Missouri struggled with that for 3 years. In his 3rd year he brought in Baker (his 3rd DC ) to fix his defense. His defense was the most improved in the nation. His offense still struggled. He had been the OC for the first 3 years but in year 4 he brought in Kirby Moore, brother of NFL OC and former Boise State QB Kellen Moore. Kirby’s coaching mentors, under whose tutelage he rapidly ascended the ranks, were primarily Chris Petersen and Kalen DeBoer. Mizzou’s offensive scoring against SEC defenses were as follows, in 2020=26.7, in 2021=22.6, in 2022=20.4, in 2023=35.9. Moore had been with DeBoer at Fresno State so I was expecting him to be able to put up some points.
But it’s not that cut and dry. In 2022 we had 77% returning production which was one of the tops in the nation. Last year we were middle of the pack at best. Missouri had 83% returning production last year and, with good coaches on both sides of the ball, was able to make some noise against their schedule.
Drink had a top 25 roster last year and it should only improve this year but he lost his defensive guru along with his DL coach and he lost all the star players in his secondary. On offense other than Schrader they have a lot of returning production, including on the OLine. If he loses Moore he may be in trouble on that side of the ball too.
The point is there are a lot of variables to consider in evaluating any team and in isolation they may be a bit misleading. Things like coaching, talent, and returning production (experience) are the big 3 metrics in most analytical models but since no credible system currently exists for rating coaches, the go-to stand-in is recent history. The models that adjust for coaching changes tend to be more credible, all else being considered.
Until rosters for both players and staff are reasonably settled all way-too-early predictions that don’t include a sound basis are likely a requirement by the publication to generate clicks. It’s the job of the writers but until the first draft of returning production numbers come out in early February it’s likely the writers are ill-informed and just doing what they have to in order to get paid. jmo.
Most way-too-early prognosticators see us going 9-3 with losses at OU, to UA, and at UGA.. I haven’t done all my homework yet but I don’t see us losing to OU or UA. That’s just my opinion right now. Look, I know Nico is a redshirt Freshman and has a lot to learn but there’s something else to keep in mind. In limited snaps in 2023 he finished 3rd in the conference in success rate for the pool of 20 QBs that had at least as many snaps as he had. Only Jayden Daniels (Heisman winner) and Carson Beck outperformed him in that regard.
To those who think Iowa’s defense wasn’t all that, it might be worthwhile to remember that in Penn State and Michigan they faced two top 15 offenses. Penn State’s offense scored 4 TDs and 1 FG against the Hawkeye defense. Michigan’s national championship offense managed only 2 TDs and 4 FGs. The Tennessee offense led by Iamaleava scored 4 TDs against that same defense.
Last point. In 2022 we had the #1 redzone offense in the nation in terms of converting redzone attempts into TDs (79.1%). In 2023 we fell to #106 in the nation for that same metric (51.85%). We were actually a bit lower at the end of the regular season (48.98%) but got a bit of a bump in the bowl game against what ended up being the #3 team in the nation against converting redzone attempts into TDs. In the Citrus bowl Nico had the ball in the redzone 4 different times and came away with 4 TDs for a 100% TD conversion rate. You can’t really beat that. I don’t think. jmo.
Beamer'd better be afraid!
