Recruiting Football Talk VII

[Jackcrevol]

Today on 'The Bye Week',

1) Dollywood Reviews
2) Checkered Pants!
3) 80's syntehisizers. - CPU or no?

 

[InVOLuntary]

I can't believe all you old effers. I'm supposedly ancient and I love roller coasters. Bunch of betas IMO.

 

[knoxvol52]

Texas or OU?

Texas big...

 

[InVOLuntary]

Chris Budden has more forehead than Peyton Manning.

 

[peaygolf]

Texas or OU?

Go Sooners!

 

[Orange.]

It’s the harvest festival! The wife wanted it tbh.

Congrats on the sex.

I did and it was awesome but afterward I realized I’m too old to get jostled around so much.

You have time to heal up for next year.

 

[Devo182]

It is stupid. No amount of explaining can change that. At worst you're forced into a 2nd 2pt conversion if the first one fails. Depending on how the game feels, you may want the XP and overtime or possibly go for 2 & the win. They made the decision for 2 too early. It's the same as kicking an onside kick to open the game or after halftime, when you dont need to. Reminds me of Butch trying to explain the chart. . .

Clearly you're not playing for OT if you're heading down this path. If you were, then that's not part of this decision tree to begin with and you kick the XP twice...still suboptimal AOTBE.

So the decision is:

1) Get one chance at a 2pt conversion and either win or lose. ~50% chance to win. No advantages.

Or

2) Get two chances at a 2 pt conversion and either win outright with converting #1 (same outcome as above) or go to OT if fail first and convert 2nd time (added opportunity). 62.5% chance to win.


Making the SAME decision either now or later - you do it earlier for the information - general game theory. But in this case especially, you even gain additional opportunities making it pretty cut and dry.

But football is the anti-baseball and takes years for these knuckleheads to get away from tradition and to what is mathematically and schematically advantageous. Just look how long it took them to understand fewer run blockers was actually mathematically advantageous, such as Heuepel now tends toward. Or not huddling gives an advantage. Hell, most still don't seem to get how absurdly +EV a simple QB sneak is.

Football moves slow as molasses in terms of catching up to the math. One day...

 

[knoxvol52]

I can't believe all you old effers. I'm supposedly ancient and I love roller coasters. Bunch of betas IMO.

Hey I ride River Rampage..grab a Burger from Red's ..ride the roller coasters..grab some dipping dots....then find a show...oh I forgot I ride the train about 5 times..@Glitch moves to edge of his seat...

 

[Glitch]

oh the things we have to beesh about.

I couldn't care less about what song gets played going into the 4th quarter, but every game I have been to everybody is up on their feet singing loud and proud. Maybe some folks don't like Garth Brooks and that is cool. Just don't act like it is not a great audience participation song.

 

[Orangeredblooded]

You're awesome . Care to share some of the harder stuff you like? If you are interested in a great new hard rock/metal band from TN then you should check out Sleep Theory out of Memphis. Their lead singer is a black dude with a great voice and they jam. They finally got signed earlier this year, have a couple of very good songs on Youtube and are working on their debut album. I try to spread the word about them in hopes that they make it. Link below to a great song.

From jokes I've seen (and made) I believe you are a bit older than me....maybe a little more than a bit. I've always loved rock but as I get older I enjoy the heavier stuff more and more. Aggressively hard rock can either get me pumped up or mellow me out but always makes me happy. I used to listen to more of a mix of hard rock, metal, classic rock and rap/hiphop but now that I'm in my early 40's I very seldom listen to anything that doesn't have pounding drums and at least some screaming. I Prevail is one of my other favorite newer bands, though they have been a little disappointing lately. Beartooth is another great post-2010 band.

As for Southern rock....I used to love Molly Hatchett and Blackfoot. More bluesy and heavy than Skynyrd. Also love the early Allmann Brothers stuff, especially Whipping Post.



Edit: They have released an EP and full album recently so not just the few songs any more.

I listen to all you mentioned, plus some older Godsmack, Disturbed, etc.

 

[Devo182]

Your chart does not take into account that 2 point conversions are not converted at a 50% rate. They are converted less frequently.

Smh it's a wash doc. You have to convert a 2pter in either case...

Also immaterial to our analysis. XPs are also not 100%, right? Fwiw I've seen it 48-52% depending on season. But again, a wash.

And the EV chart is based on historical results. It is +EV whatever the % is and it is't close.

 

[Glitch]

I wanted to fire him after the Okla game in year 3. Close!

We had that game until Butch took a big ol giant Butch on us and lost that game.

 

[Glitch]

Check your stats bro

View attachment 585038
Commodore64 released January 1982

 

[Glitch]

View attachment 585039

@Sally has no eye for the details. Most eerything in the background looks like it is in some Eastern European language or something.

 

[Glitch]

Also, I love how “rumblings” of a Gators coach search has reached our board so if true it means they clearly aren’t doing it very quietly which means Napier knows. Probably not long before he throws in the towel on this season, his players give up, and their season collapses.

 

[knoxvol52]

Best Noon game is William &Mary playing Virginia on ACC Network

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Clearly you're not playing for OT if you're heading down this path. If you were, then that's not part of this decision tree to begin with and you kick the XP twice...still suboptimal AOTBE.

So the decision is:

1) Get one chance at a 2pt conversion and either win or lose. ~50% chance to win. No advantages.

Or

2) Get two chances at a 2 pt conversion and either win outright with converting #1 (same outcome as above) or go to OT if fail first and convert 2nd time (added opportunity). 62.5% chance to win.


Making the SAME decision either now or later - you do it earlier for the information - general game theory. But in this case especially, you even gain additional opportunities making it pretty cut and dry.

But football is the anti-baseball and takes years for these knuckleheads to get away from tradition and to what is mathematically and schematically advantageous. Just look how long it took them to understand fewer run blockers was actually mathematically advantageous, such as Heuepel now tends toward. Or not huddling gives an advantage. Hell, most still don't seem to get how absurdly +EV a simple QB sneak is.

Football moves slow as molasses in terms of catching up to the math. One day...

Hope it doesn't catch up one day, games will be filled with more idiotic calls that ignore the flow & feel of the game. Did you watch the game? Anyone who did could tell it was absolutely the wrong choice, regardless what statistics called for. You can die on this hill if you want, I'll die on mine too, because it was easy to see it was a bad choice in that situation.

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Best Noon game is William &Mary playing Virginia on ACC Network

what time does Sewanee kick-off?

 

[knoxvol52]

what time does Sewanee kick-off?

2p.m. playing Birmingham-Southern must see T.V..

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Best Noon game is William &Mary playing Virginia on ACC Network

And W&M take the lead. . .

 

[SpringBokVol]

I am pulling for Mizzou, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Kentucky today - oh and Andy

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Mizzou

 

[voltn21]

Brian Kelly gonna be on the hot seat?

 

[Enki_Amenra]

LSU will run up the score now, if they can.

 

[butchna]

Clearly you're not playing for OT if you're heading down this path. If you were, then that's not part of this decision tree to begin with and you kick the XP twice...still suboptimal AOTBE.

So the decision is:

1) Get one chance at a 2pt conversion and either win or lose. ~50% chance to win. No advantages.

Or

2) Get two chances at a 2 pt conversion and either win outright with converting #1 (same outcome as above) or go to OT if fail first and convert 2nd time (added opportunity). 62.5% chance to win.


Making the SAME decision either now or later - you do it earlier for the information - general game theory. But in this case especially, you even gain additional opportunities making it pretty cut and dry.

But football is the anti-baseball and takes years for these knuckleheads to get away from tradition and to what is mathematically and schematically advantageous. Just look how long it took them to understand fewer run blockers was actually mathematically advantageous, such as Heuepel now tends toward. Or not huddling gives an advantage. Hell, most still don't seem to get how absurdly +EV a simple QB sneak is.

Football moves slow as molasses in terms of catching up to the math. One day...

No algorithm justifies CHASING POINTS from the beginning of the game on. How many times have we witnessed a missed XP’s follow up commentary “That could come back to hurt them!” come to fruition? Some old standbys of days yorn had to go the way of the dodo bird…like the quick kick on third down, but others like not going for it on fourth down on your own goal line will endure no matter how many progressive articles advocate otherwise.